Texas Motor Speedway is the sight for Sunday in the NASCAR Cup Series as we go back to a 1.5-mile intermediate track. As we head into the second quarter of the season, we are starting to see some drivers sort themselves out ahead of the rest as far as points standings go. The intermediate track features different characteristics in pretty much every corner. Turns one and two feature 20 degrees of banking while three and four have 24 degrees of banking. There have been 11 races since this track was reconfigured and it have shown to produce seven different winners in each of the last seven races. In two of the last three races here the pole sitter has led at least 111 laps (Bubba Wallace with 111 last year and Kyle Larson with 256 in 2021).

Kyle Larson ($11,000) Starting on the Pole

Larson did not have a good trip here last season as he was only able to complete 248 of the 266 laps despite leading 91 of those laps. Larson started that race from the 11 position. In the race here prior to that Larson started and finished ninth. As mentioned above, the driver of the 5 car started on the pole and led 256 laps and when all was said and done he was residing in victory. On Sunday Larson will once again start on the pole and should be a good bet to lead a majority of the first stage.

Chase Elliott ($9,300), Starting 24th

Of late Elliott looks like he has turned a corner as far as performance goes finishing in the top-10 in three of his last four races including leading 61 laps last week en route to a third-place finish. Despite Chase not qualifying well I still have hope for him to finish well. With his starting position he’ll have plenty of PD points available just as he did here last season when he started 29th and finish 11th. Despite never winning here at Texas, Elliott has two top-five finishes and an average finish position of 13th.

Kyle Busch ($9,000), Starting 35th

Busch should be a chalky PD play and he’ll be a guy I’ll have plenty of exposure to. KB won the truck race on Friday night, his 20th win at the track across the three major series’. Despite having horrible luck with car issues his last two trips to this track, Busch has four Cup wins here and even with back to back bad finished (36th and 34th) has an average finish of 12th.

William Byron ($10,800), Starting 6th

No one has figured out this next-gen car like William Byron has winning at virtually every type of track the series has to offer. Byron comes into this event with momentum after last weeks win, a race in which he started 18th and managed to lead 88 laps. Coincidentally Byron started the race here last season 18th and despite only leading six laps, found himself in victory lane by the end. The win was his first at Texas and his fourth top-10. Don’t put it past Byron to wheel that thing to the front.

Brad Keselowski ($8,200), Starting 22nd

Keselowski’s year has been up and down for sure but he’s been strong in his career here at Texas, especially over his five trips here as he’s finished in the top-10 each time. All in all Keselowski has logged six top-fives and 13 top-10’s at Texas in his career. He’s a good mid-range place differential candidate.

Joey Logano ($8,800), Starting 20th

Logano just simply didn’t have a good car here last season. He ran around pretty much where he started and that’s where he finished, 21st. Prior to that race, Logano had logged top-10’s in four of his five races (the one that was not a top-10 was due to a blown engine). The driver of the 22 has one win here which came way back in 2014 but outside of that Logano has 12 top-five’s and 15 top-10’s in 28 races here. 20th is a good spot for him starting to offer some PD upside.

Also Consider:

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,100), Starting 31st

Christopher Bell ($9,500), Starting 3rd

Josh Berry ($6,800), Starting 25th

Ryan Blaney ($10,200), Starting 7th

Jimmie Johnson ($6,700), Starting 37th

GOOD LUCK!!

The post The High Line – Cup Series – AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 – Texas Motor Speedway – April 14, 2024 first appeared on Daily Ambush.

We have the second NASCAR night race in as many nights and this time it’s the XFINITY Series drivers taking to the short track of Martinsville. We got a little taste of a short track-type atmosphere last week when the cars hit Richmond Raceway but this track this week is a true short track, in fact, the shortest on the schedule. Martinsville is a .526-mile asphalt concrete oval that has 12 degrees of banking in the turns. It’s nicknamed the “Paperclip” and requires a ton of precision and is tough on the cars, especially on the brakes. With 250 laps scheduled there are plenty of dominator points to be had as well as the usual place differential spots as some drivers try to treck through the field after sub-par qualifying results. In each of the last five races here the pole-sitter has led at least 42  each time notably Brandon Jones last year (98) and Ty Gibbs two years ago (197).

Strategy

With the number of laps in this race, I’ll want at least two dominators in each of my lineups. Like I mentioned above, the pole sitter has had success here but outside of that there’s hasn’t been much of a rhyme or reason as to why a given driver has racked up dominator points connected to his starting position. Beyond starting position we’ll have to look at track history and note specific drivers that are strong at the short track style of racing.

Most comparable tracks: Bristol Motor Speedway (but don’t look to deeply into this comparison)

*Note: all pricing is DraftKings focused

Top Drivers

Chandler Smith ($11,000), Starting 37th

It’s hard to look past – actually impossible to look past a driver like Smith who has arguably been the best driver in the XFINITY Series this season. Smith had a mishap in practice and thus did not qualify meaning he’ll start to the back of the field after repairs are done to his vehicle. Coming into this weeken Smith has an average finish of third with two wins. For the most part Smith has qualified well all season so for some there could be some cause for concern, but make no mistake about it; Smith will be popular and undoubtedly have one of the best cars out there.

Cole Custer ($10,300), Starting 2nd

Custer has been more than solid thus far as the defending series champion posting an average finish of 8th to this point. Despite not having a win to this point, Custer has four top-10 finishes including top-five finishes in three of his last four races. Starting on the front row, possibly on the pole (if Brandon Jones has to go to the rear) Custer is in a great spot to lead laps early.

Sammy Smith ($9,800), Starting 17th

In three races at Martinsville, Smith has a second and third-place finish, both results have come in his last two races here. Last year Smith led 147 laps from the pole in the Fall race but this weekend he’ll start back at 17th. With plenty of place differential available and good track history in a very good car, Smith should be in line for a very strong day.

Justin Allgaier ($9,800), Starting 5th

At one of his best tracks Allgaier will take off fifth as he looks for his second win at Martinsville. In seven races at the Paperclip Allgaier has an average finish of 8.1 with four top-fives. Allgaier won the Fall race here last year when he started second.

Also Consider:

Sheldon Creed ($10,000), Starting 3rd

Riley Herbst ($9,000), Starting 22nd

Taylor Gray ($8,000), Starting 16th

Austin Hill ($9,200), Starting 2nd

Jesse Love ($9,400), Starting 11th

Aric Almirola ($10,800), Starting 6th

Shane Van Gisbergen ($7,500), Starting 19th

GOOD LUCK!!

The post The High Line – XFINITY Series – Dude Wipes 250 – Martinsville Speedway – April 6, 2024 first appeared on Daily Ambush.

The Craftsman Truck Series had a bit of a layoff not having raced since COTA on March 23rd but this week they head to the shortest track on the schedule, Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeway, Virginia. Martinsville is a .526-mile asphalt concrete oval that has 12 degrees of banking in the turns. Commonly called the “Paperclip”, Martinsville requires a lot of precision, especially when breaking into the corners. This track can really beat up the truck/car as drivers push and bump for position throughout. The drivers will turn 200 laps, the most of any Truck Series race thus far putting an emphasis on dominator points. Track position is imperative here as typically one of, if not both drivers starting on the front row will lead the majority of laps.

Strategy

As mentioned above, there are 200 laps in this race making dominator points relevant, unlike the last Truck Series race which had just 41 laps. Looking at two dominators will be the baseline for me as I build my lineups while also looking heavily at drivers in good, strong trucks that can withstand the grind that this race is. Last year’s race was won by Corey Heim, who also won last week. At the Paperclip last year he led 82 laps from the fourth starting position in a race that only went 124 laps due to rain.

Most comparable tracks: Bristol Motor Speedway (but don’t look to deeply into this comparison)

*Note: all pricing is DraftKings focused

Top Drivers

Corey Heim ($11,000), Starting 4th

Heim has been on fire to start the season with an average finishing of third with the aforementioned win a couple weeks ago at COTA. Heim won here last year like I mentioned and in his first race here in 2021 posted an 11th-place finish after starting 28th. The truck is great and the talent level for Heim is superb. He’ll be one of the favorites to win.

Ty Majeski ($10,700), Starting on the Pole

Majeski is one of the best short track racers in the Craftsman Truck Series and that’s proven true at Martinsville with an 11-place and fourth-place finish in two trips to this particular short track. All in all in 10 races in a truck on short tracks Majeski has two wins, six top-fives, and seven top-10’s.

Grant Enfinger ($10,200), Starting 20th

A veteran in NASCAR, Enfinger has run 11 truck races at Martinsville and has run them well. In those races Enfinger has a win, three top-five’s, and five top-10’s. Enfinger has always been a consistent runner here having finished on the lead lap in all 11 races here. Overall on short tracks in 29 truck races on them Enfinger has an average finishing position over 7.5. Enfinger is a great place differential play.

Also Consider:

Christian Eckes ($10,500), Starting 2nd

Taylor Gray ($7,800), Starting 12th

Layne Riggs ($8,000), Starting 3rd

Matt Crafton ($8,500), Starting 24th

Sammy Smith ($9,300), Starting 13th

William Sawalich ($6,900), Starting 21st

Timmy Hill ($5,900), Starting 27th

GOOD LUCK!!

The post The High Line – Craftsman Truck Series – Long John Silver’s 200 – Martinsville Speedway – April 5, 2024 first appeared on Daily Ambush.

It’s Easter Sunday and we’re racing under the lights. It’s safe to say that we’re getting into the meat and potatoes of the NASCAR Cup Series season heading to Richmond Raceway, one of the premier short tracks on the schedule. Richmond is known for aggressive tire wear putting an emphasis on the drivers to take care of those tires an to have good, clean pit stops and rely on pit strategy. A wrinkle to consider this week is the new short track package and new tire on this track. This will be the same short track package that was run at Phoenix with Richmond being a very similar track. The drivers will turn 400 laps totaling 300 miles in a race where dominator points will be at the forefront. On top of dominator points and the ever-common place differential points, this is a place where track position is key and thus performance from the pit crews on pit road will be imperative.

Strategy

This race has the most dominator points available to this point meaning that we’ll need to make a point to have multiple drivers in our lineups that will lead a good chunk of laps. Last year Kyle Larson led 93 laps when he dominated enroute to a win. In the fall Brad Keselowski led the most laps (102), Bubba Wallace led 80 laps, and race-winner Chris Buescher led 88 laps. Two years ago at the first race here Ryan Blaney (128), William Byron (122), Martin Truex, Jr (80), and Christopher Bell (63) led the chunk of the laps at Richmond with none of the four winning, that title went to Denny Hamlin. In the second race, Joey Logano (222) owned this race en route to a 6th place finish. The race at Richmond before that two drivers (Martin Truex, Jr, the eventual winner, and Denny Hamlin) led 80 or more laps. The race prior, the same two drivers led 107 or more laps with Truex leading the 107 and Hamlin leading a staggering 207 laps.

Most comparable tracks: New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Phoenix Raceway

*Note: all pricing is DraftKings focused

Top Drivers

Martin Truex, Jr, ($10,800), Starting 7th

This is one of Truex’s best track as he’s posted three wins here and nine top-fives in 33 trips to Richmond. Truex has led 80 or more laps in nine of his last 12 races here with six top-three finishes over that span. At similar track Phoenix, Truex has a win and six top-five’s in his career. Interestingly enough, all three of MTS’s wins here have come at night which of course, this race is under the lights. The driver of the 19 car has been the model of consistency so far this season as far a running and finishing positions go. MTJ has had average running position of 8.3 and an average finish of 8.8.

Kyle Busch ($9,700), Starting 15th

This is a track, much like Bristol, that Kyle Busch has absolutely stood out at. There’s been a mind boggling stat floating around and it’s that KB has run 36 races at this short track and in those races has run all but one lap, meaning he’s finished every race on the lead-lap except for one, which is staggering on a short track. Overall in Cup Busch has six wins, 19 top-five, and 28 top-10’s here. Despite starting middle of the pack at 15th, there’s a route for KB to get to the front and lead laps making him a potential dominator with place differential points available.

Kyle Larson ($10,200), Starting on the Pole

Kyle Larson has eight top-10’s at Richmond, the most for him at any short track. Furthermore Larson has finished in the top six in his last seven short track races. Overall at Richmond Larson has two wins, four top-fives, and eight top-10’s. This will be his fourth time starting on the pole here, his third time since being the driver of the number 5 car. Despite Hendrick Motorsports having mixed results across the board over that last few years at Richmond, Larson is poised to dominate this race early.

Tyler Reddick ($8,700), Starting 19th

Reddick’s season has been up and down for sure and on paper so have his results at this track and most of the short tracks on the circuit. Tyler has one short track top-five in his career. At Richmond last Fall Reddick started on the pole and finished 16th but that finish can be considered somewhat artificial. In that race Reddick won the pole like I said and won stage one while leading 81 laps. However, a late-race green flag pit stop penalty did him in after he slid through the pit box. It was too late in the race for him to get back up front and thus the 16th-place finish. Reddick could be a dark horse top-five finisher today.

Brad Keselowski ($8,200), Starting 23rd

Keselowski has now gone 104 races without a win but this has historically been a good track for him. BK has won here twice in 28 starts along with having six top-five’s and 14 top-10’s. Keselowski has back to back top-10’s here including a sixth-place finish last Fall when he led 102 laps. Lastly, the drive and co-owner of the 6 car has led 1,280 laps at this track, the most for him of any track he’s run in his Cup career.

Christopher Bell ($11,000), Starting 29th

Bell had a poor qualifying effort here but that’s not uncommon for him over his Cup Series career at this track. In seven starts at Richmond, Bell has posted an average starting position of 17.7 and over his last four runs here has qualified 21st, 21st, 29th and now he’ll start 29th again. In those previous races he’s finished second, fourth, and 20th. Overall, Bell has an average finishing position of 7.7 here with four top-fives, and five top-10’s.

Denny Hamlin ($11,200), Starting 11th

Hamlin has been great here over his career with four wins, 18 top-fives, and 22 top-10’s. He’s also fourth all-time in laps led at this track with 2,226. Hamlin could’ve won both races here last year but on both occasion’s he had subtle mistakes, one on pit road, that kept him from bringing home the trophy. With how this track wears on equipment, most notably tires, it’ll make the drivers that can take care of those tires stand out. As we saw earlier this season at Bristol, where tire wear was a major concern, Hamlin hung in there and took care of his car the best en route to a victory.

Josh Berry ($7,500), Starting 30th

Berry is considered one of the better short track drivers in the garage. Berry started the first Richmond race last season subbing in for the injured Chase Elliott. In that race, Berry started 30th, led 10 laps, and ended up finishing second just behind Kyle Larson. Earlier this season Berry finished 12th at Bristol and led 25 laps in a race filled with chaos. Berry, who is a rookie in the Cup Series showed well at Richmond at the XFINITY level posting an average finish of 10.3 but there’s a 24th-place finish mixed in when Berry drove a poor Jordan Anderson car. In his other three races there at that level, Berry, in his JR Motorsports car finished third, seventh, and seventh.

Chase Briscoe ($7,600), Started 32nd

Briscoe has qualified well all season outside two races with this weekend being one of them. This has been a good track of late for Briscoe finishing 11th and 12th in his last two trips here while also having another 11th-place finish under his belt. There’s a lot of room for place differential points here for Briscoe.

Others to Consider:

Chase Elliott ($9,000), Starting 2nd

Chris Buescher ($9,300), Starting 14th

Michael McDowell ($7,000), Starting 31st

Ty Gibbs ($10,000), Starting 8th

GOOD LUCK!!

The post The High Line – Cup Series – Toyota Owners 400 – Richmond Raceway – March 31, 2024 first appeared on Daily Ambush.

Richmond is known as “America’s premier short track” and could be considered a fan-favorite venue. The .75-mile asphalt oval opened in 1946 and the XFINITY Series has been racing there since 1982. The drivers will turn 250 laps totaling 187.5 miles making this race the one with the most dominator points available on the XFINITY schedule thus far in 2023. Green flag is set for just after 1:40 p.m. Eastern.

Strategy

I mentioned above that this race has the most dominator points available on the schedule to this point and that track position is important here. When considering those two factors, finding the driver(s) who will lead the most laps will be a major factor in winning or simply placing in a tournament. I’ll be looking to roster two potential dominators in most of my lineups because of the hefty amount of dominator points available.

Most comparable tracks: New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Phoenix Raceway

*Note: all pricing is DraftKings focused

Top Drivers

Justin Allgaier ($11,000)

While the last two races at Richmond for Allgaier have not been stellar (13th and 14th place finishes) despite qualifying well, specifically in race their last year when he qualified on the pole. Prior to that, Allgaier had five consecutive top-four finishes including two straight wins there in 2020. When looking at the full body of work here for Allgaier he’s posted eight top-five’s and 11 top-10’s in 23 races there. The driver of the 7 car has been strong at similar tracks such as Phoenix and New Hampshire and he’ll be a contender here this week.

Chandler Smith ($10,800)

To start the season Smith has been very strong racking up top-10 finishes in each of his first five races. In his lone start at Richmond in the XFINITY Series he won, last season starting from the eighth-position leading 83 laps. Smith has qualified extremely well thus far in 2024 starting on the front row twice and fourth once, although the last two weeks he’s started 12th and 19th. Despite those lackluster qualifying efforts, Smith still managed to finish second two races ago and fifth in his last race. Two things are for certain and that’s that Smith is extremely talented and will have a good car to hit the track with this weekend. As of right now he’s the odds-on favorite to win the race.

Cole Custer ($10,500)

Custer did not qualify well at this event last season when he started back at 22nd. Despite that he managed to finish fifth and that was his third XFINITY top-five finish in eight races in this car at this track. Custer has been good at Phoenix and New Hampshire in this car too including a win at Phoenix last season to seal the XFINITY Championship. Custer has an average finish of eighth this season including three top-five finishes.

Austin Hill ($9,500)

Starting 18th, Hill already has three wins on the season and five top-10’s in six races. Despite a 37th place finish last week due to engine issues, Hill is in a position to pick up place differential points as well as being a contender to win. Hill’s car has been good on the long run this season leading 103, 19, and 39 laps in his three wins.

Corey Heim ($7,800)

A very talented young driver is Heim who finished 13th a couple of weeks ago. Heim is running the Craftsman Truck Series as a regular and he’s coming into this XFINITY race with momentum after a win last week.

Jeb Burton ($6,500)

When looking for some value on this slate I’m looking down to Jeb Burton. The Virginia native has been extremely strong at one of his home tracks, especially over his last four XFINITY races there. In those races Burton has finished 12th, 11th, 10th, and second while starting 16th, 38th, sixth, and 10th. Before wrecking out late in the race this year at Phoenix, Burton had been running well and finished 12th there last season in the last race. Burton also had a seventh-place finish at New Hampshire last season so it seems to me the he’s comfortable on the short tracks. His price offers good value.

Shane Van Gisbergen ($7,500)

It’s obvious the SVG is a great road course racer but it’s also clear that he’s just simply a great driver and is adapting well to the different types of tracks that NASCAR has to offer. SVG drove through the field at Phoenix where he started 23rd and finished sixth which is very impressive considering how that track plays and how the tire wear is. Going to Richmond he’ll have a lot of the same characteristics to deal with, except the tire wear is more severe. Overall, SVG makes for a solid mid-range play.

Also Consider:

Taylor Gray ($8,500)

Jesse Love ($9,400)

Sheldon Creed ($10,000)

Sam Mayer ($9,000)

Ryan Sieg ($7,000)

Bubba Pollard ($8,000)

GOOD LUCK!!

The post The High Line – XFINITY Series – Toyota Care 250 – Richmond Raceway – April 30, 2024 first appeared on Daily Ambush.

The Circuit of the Americas or COTA is a 3.426-mile Formula 1 road course that features 20 turns. The drivers will turn just 68 laps translating to 231.88 miles making dominator points more important than the Truck and XFINITY races but still not something we should run to seek out, specifically the “laps led” metric.

Strategy

Place differential and finishing position. These two factors are paramount in this race, especially with some of the surprising qualifying positions for Sunday. This track is huge with plenty of room to move around so expecting the big wreck or two that we’ve seen to this point isn’t a sound strategy.

Most comparable tracks: Watkins Glen International, Sonoma Raceway, Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course, Daytona Road Course, Charlotte ROVAL

*Note: all pricing is DraftKings focused

Top Drivers

Tyler Reddick ($10,500), Starting 3rd

The favorite to win this race is Reddick and it’s with good reason. The road course ace will start third and is coming off a win here last season, a race in which he started on the front row. Overall at COTA Reddick has that win last season along with a fifth-place finish in 2022 and a ninth in 2021. In 21 road course races at the Cup level he has three wins, six top-five’s and 13 top-10’s.

Chase Elliott ($10,300), Starting 9th

It’s time for Chase to start being Chase again consistently and I think that last week showed a lot in getting to that point. Finishing fifth in a race that was something no one expected is a big step and coming to a road course, a type of environment where Elliott is strong is a good recipe for success. Elliott is just about a year removed from his snowboarding accident and thus he missed this race a year ago. In his two COTA races Elliott has a win and a fourth-place finish. with the win coming in an epic race which featured absolute downpour conditions. In his Cup career Elliott has seven road course wins and 17 top-fives. Those seven wins came over a 12-race stretch so clearly Elliott has the talent to run the left and right turns.

Kyle Larson ($10,200), Starting 15th

Larson was great yesterday when he needed to be taking the lead late in the XFINITY race and winning. Larson has four wins and nine top-five’s in his career in Cup on road courses. While those numbers might not jump off the page, he had the extra track time yesterday and he’ll start 15th giving him some good P.D. if he does find himself upfront.

Ryan Blaney ($7,500), Starting 28th

Blaney has not been a road course stud over his career but he’s more than held his own, especially here at COTA. He’s posted an average finish of 14th with a sixth-place finish here in 2022. His 21st-place finish isn’t special here from last season but it’s important to note that he started 38th in that race and was priced at $9,100. This year, he’ll start 28th and is priced at $7,500 leaving plenty of room for ROI.

William Byron ($9,700), Starting on the Pole

Not considered a road course ace, Byron has performed well at COTA and this weekend he looks to have a great car. Byron dominated practice and qualifying leaving just one more hurdle for him; the actual race. Wild Bill finished fifth here last year from the pole after leading 28 laps and has a road course victory (Watkins Glen) and three top-five’s under his belt. He’s not a popular play but from the looks of Byron’s car, he could easily be a factor at the end.

Michael McDowell ($8,000), Starting 27th

Starting deep in the field at COTA is nothing new to the driver of the 34 car. In his three races at COTA, McDowell has an average finish of 10th finishing 12th, 13th, and seventh over that last three years. In those races McDowell started 20th, 27th, and 23rd.

Alex Bowman ($7,700), Starting 17th

COTA has been Bowman’s best road course track. Over the last three races here Bowman has an average finish of fourth with a third and second place finish over the last two years. While not considered a great road course racer overall, clearly Bowman has a high-level of comfort here and is coming in with momentum after a fourth-place finish last week.

Road Course Standouts:

AJ Allmendinger ($8,800), Starting 14th

Shane Van Gisbergen ($9,500), Starting 12th

Kamui Kobayashi ($7,000), Starting 25th

Also Consider:

Christopher Bell ($10,000), Starting 4th

Brad Keselowski ($6,900), Starting 36th

Chae Briscoe ($7,100), Starting 32nd

Erik Jones ($6,800), Starting 38th

GOOD LUCK!!

The post The High Line – Cup Series – EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix – Circuit of the Americas – March 24, 2024 first appeared on Daily Ambush.

For the first time since 2020 the NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to Bristol Motor Speedway in the spring on pavement. As you may or may not know, the last three season’s Bristol has featured a dirt race in the Spring. While these races were entertaining, it’s nice to get back to one of NASCAR’s more famed tracks under “normal” conditions. Bristol is a half-mile short track that promises for excitement at every turn if you’re a racing fan, and even in some cases if you’re not. The drivers will turn 500 laps in what is one of the loudest venues in all of motorsports.

Strategy

As you may imagine, with this race being 500 laps track position and more specifically dominator points are paramount in this setting. Over the past three season’s I looked back to see where the lap-leaders stacked up, in this case I looked to the Fall race which was run on the concrete. In 2023, Christopher Bell, last weeks winner at Phoenix, led 187 laps from the pole while Denny Hamlin led 142 laps en route to a win from the second position. The year before that, Aric Almirola led 36 laps from the pole before his steering failed him and he was knocked out of the race. In that instance Christ Buescher won the race from the 20th starting position while leading 169 laps. Christopher Bell (started 8th) led 143 laps and Brad Keselowski (10th) led 109. In 2021 Kyle Larson started fifth and won while leading 175 laps with Chase Elliott finishing 25th but he led 129 laps from the fourth starting position. In this case the pole sitter led zero laps while the second-position starter led 65. Basically what this boils down to is we can expect to see two to three drivers lead the majority of laps but where those drivers start could vary. Track history along with qualifying will play an important role this week, more so than some others.

Drivers to Target

Kyle Busch ($10,200), Starting 14th

Busch is the class of the field at this track no matter what he’s driving or where he’s starting. When looking at Busch’s history on the pavement here it’s more than impressive. In the Cup series Busch has eight wins and 14 top-fives in 34 starts. Some of his laps-led marks are staggering including 415 in the Fall of 2008, 378 in the Spring of 2009, 285 in the Fall of 2010, 153 in the Spring of 2011, 119 in the Fall of 2015, 256 in the Fall of 2016, 156 in the Fall of 2017, 117 in the Spring of 2018, 100 in the Spring of 2020, and 159 in the Fall of 2020. He’s won here nine times in the XFINITY Series and five times in the Truck Series. Despite a sub-par effort here last season, Busch was happy with his car and noted that there wasn’t anything worth changing. His Crew Chief Randall Burnett stated that they’re not looking to make any changes between last years car and the one they plan to bring to the track Sunday. KB has been fast all season and it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s the fifth winner this season in five Cup races.

Denny Hamlin ($11,200), Starting 3rd

Three-time Bristol winner Denny Hamlin has proven that he can get around this place with the best of them despite having some poor finishes here over his career. With that aside, Hamlin won the race here last Fall in a dominating effort leading 142 laps from the front row (he started second) and dating back to the Fall of 2021 (three races) Hamlin has finished in the top-10 three straight times, including a ninth-place finish in the Fall of 2021 which saw him lead 65 laps. Denny’s best finish this season is 8th at Las Vegas but he’s been fast all season, including bringing a great car to Phoenix last week in a race that he led 68 laps.

Christopher Bell ($11,000), Starting 12th

Bell comes into this race with a ton of momentum after having a dominant run last week in a race that he won by over five seconds, the highest-mark in the Gen7 era. Last Fall Bell started here on the pole and proceeded to lead 187 laps en route to a third-place finish. The Fall prior to that Bell led 143 laps from the 8th-spot and finished fourth, Despite not having a win to boast here in the Cup Series over five races, it’s clear that Bell has figured out how to navigate around Bristol regardless of where he starts.

Chris Buescher ($9,800), Starting 34th

Speaking of momentum, Buescher drove his car to a second-place finish last week at Phoenix after starting 14th. Of late Buescher has shown the ability to make up positions at Bristol, notably of the last two Fall races in which he started 20th on both occassions. Buescher won the 2022 race while leading 169 laps and he backed that up last Fall with a fourth-place finish. If you look at his history here over the years it’s not good, at all, but over the past two season’s as he’s improved as a driver he’s gotten much better. Some would say “it’s just two races” but when you look at the data from what he’s put on the track overall over the past two season’s, the improvement’s are staggering. The place differential available here makes Buescher a more-than-solid play.

Brad Keselowski ($9,200), Starting 17th

Buescher’s teammate, Keselowski is struggling as far as the win column goes. 102 races have gone by without a win for BK but we’re going to a track in which Keselowski has won three times at. With those three wins, BK has six top-five finishes and has led 82 or more laps on six occasions. The last time the Cup cars ran on the concrete at Bristol BK finished eighth The 6 team is close and coming off some good momentum with a fourth-place finish last week.

Kyle Larson ($11,500), Starting 10th

Larson has run 15 races in the Cup Series at Bristol and he’s finished in the top-10 90 percent of the time. That’s a crazy stat at a track like Bristol. Larson has won here just once but he’s finished second three times and led 175 or more laps three times. Maybe the most impressive data point came last season when after a bad qualifying run, Larson started 36th in the field. He managed to finish that race second and lead 20 laps. Obviously you’ll have to pay for him and he’s the odds-on favorite to win but it’s hard to argue with the consistency.

Michael McDowell ($6,800), Starting 7th

When you have the crew chief of Joey Logano, Paul Wolfe say that they’re looking to the 34 team for reference points and strategy, you have my attention. Michael McDowell, the driver of the 34 car for Front Row Motorsports has positioned himself well all of the sudden at the short tracks on the schedule. Last week McDowell drove his car to an eighth finish at Phoenix and has finished 11th or better in three of his last four Bristol races, including sixth last Fall.

Noah Gragson ($6,700), Starting 22nd

When you look at Gragson so far in the Cup Series it’s been a rollercoaster to say the least. From losing his ride due to some controversial social media activity to being suspended for the end of last season and then landing a big-time ride with a big-time company at Stewart-Haas Racing in the 10 car there’s been a lot to digest here. When you look at his season so far, there’s a lot to be optimistic about, notably two top-10 finishes, a ninth-place finish at Daytona and a sixth-place finish at Las Vegas, his home track, and also a 12th-place run last week at Phoenix. In between all of this was a 36th-place disaster at Atlanta and also a roof rail penalty which docked him 35 points in the standings. So there’s a lot going on here. However, looking at Gragson at Bristol, there’s a lot to be excited about. In the XFINITY Series, Gragson logged two wins and four top-10’s in six starts there with an average finish of 8th. Gragson fits the characteristics of a driver that would succeed here at Bristol. He’s aggressive and he’s comfortable running in all area’s of the track. We know that at Bristol, the bottom of the track is typically run early and often. The difference makers typically make their way up towards the middle to top of the race track, after about 100 laps or so. If Gragson has the car and the gumption to run this strategy it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see a strong finish from Noah.

Ryan Blaney ($10,500), Starting on the Pole

Despite never winning at Bristol, Blaney has been one of the strongest drivers in the field at this track. His last two races here have not been good, however of all the tracks that Blaney has run, Bristol is the track that he’s led the second-most laps at of any track with 493. Within that, the defending Cup Champion has led 100 or more laps here three separate times; both races of 2018 and the Spring race of 2019. Expect Blaney to jump the lead and dominated early.

Chase Elliott ($8,300), Starting 5th

I’m just not gonna quit Elliott because at the end of the day he’s shown that he can dominate and win anywhere. Chase will return to a track that he’s had a lot of good performances at despite never winning here in the Cup Series in a points race (he’s won the All Star race here. Elliott has finished seventh and second here in his last two races and overall has had some dominating performances here leading 88 or more laps here on three occasions.

Also Consider

William Byron ($10,700), Starting 8th

Ross Chastain ($8,500), Starting 36th

Carson Hocevar ($5,800), Starting 35th

Josh Berry ($6,500), Starting 2nd

Erik Jones ($7,000), Starting 15th

GOOD LUCK!!

The post The High Line – Cup Series – Food City 500 – Bristol Motor Speedway – March 17, 2024 first appeared on Daily Ambush.

Kyle Busch ($15,000)

This seems obvious, he’s one of the best drivers ever to hit Bristol. However, KB comes with a crazy price tag but for a guy that’s won at a track 23 times in total (five times in a Truck) it’s hard to argue that he’d be expensive. Whether or not we can build a strong lineup around him will depend on if we can find some “safe” value plays, easier said than done in the Truck Series.

Corey Heim ($10,000)

Heim is a promising young driver in the XFINITY Series but he’ll be in the Truck here at a place where he’s won before, last fall when he started 11th. While he’s not been on the track much (twice in Trucks, once in ARCA), he’s extremely talented and when he won here last Fall he overtook a DOMINANT Christian Eckes truck (which led 150 laps) to do it.

Christian Eckes (9,800)

Speaking of Eckes, he’s another talented young driver and he’s run three times here in a truck. In those three races Eckes has a second place finish, the aforementioned dominant performance, as well as an eighth and 12th place finish. Eckes will be there to compete for the win all day.

Grant Enfinger ($9,300)

For Enfinger this will be his eighth time in a truck at Bristol and with a lot of success. Even though he hasn’t logged a win here, Enfinger has an average finish of fourth with a third, fourth, second, sixth, and fifth place finish in his last five races at Bristol. Overall it’s five top-five finishes here for the veteran.

Rajah Caruth ($8,700)

Caruth has already had his first career win this season and in three races has three top-10’s on his ledger. In last Fall’s Bristol race Caruth impressed and finished sixth in what was just his second trip to the short track. There’s a lot to like so far with how Caruth is progressing as he has a full-time ride with some significant backing with Hendrick Motorsports sponsoring the truck for the full season.

Also Consider:

Ben Rhodes ($8,500)

Zane Smith ($9,500)

Nick Sanchez ($8,300)

Stewart Friesen ($7,400)

Taylor Gray ($7,900)

William Sawalich ($6,900)

GOOD LUCK!!

The post The High Line – Craftsman Truck Series – Weatherguard Truck Race – Bristol Motor Speedway – March 16, 2024 first appeared on Daily Ambush.

Phoenix Raceway is a one-mile flat dogleg asphalt oval considered by some as a short track but unlike typical short tracks there is hardly any banking at Phoenix. Richmond Raceway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway (Loudon) are the two most comparable tracks to Phoenix where track position is everything as far as dominator points goes. There’s a lot in question still with NASCAR introducing a new aero package for this race but from what some of the drivers said, there doesn’t seem to be much of a difference as far as performance goes. Let’s get into more of that in the strategy section.

Strategy

The drivers will run 312 laps for 312 miles, over 100 more laps than the XFINITY drivers yesterday making the dominator points that much more plentiful. Since 2019 the polesitter has averaged well over 100 laps led in Cup races. In seven of the nine races since then the polesitter has either led the most or second-most laps in the race. Finding two of the three to four dominators of the race will be crucial as far as tournament lineups go. We’ll still want some place differential drivers as usual, especially in cash game lineups as there were more than a few cars that had poor qualifying efforts for a number of reasons. So, what drivers are we targeting?

Most comparable tracks: Richmond Raceway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway

*Note: all pricing is DraftKings focused

Drivers to Target

Ryan Blaney ($11,200), Starting 16th

Blaney has been a stud here of late, specifically in his last three races finishing second in each of those drives. Blaney clinched his Cup Series Championship here last Fall with one of those second-place finishes, one of the rare times that the race winner didn’t win the Championship. Despite starting 18th on that day, Blaney was able to drive his way to the front. That’s been his track record here, really, despite where he’s started, he’s more than often been there at the end to make noise. Blaney will start 16th on Sunday offering plenty of PD upside. The driver of the 12 car has led 96 or more laps here on three seperate occasions and in his 16 starts here has seven top-fives.

Tyler Reddick ($8,500), Starting 6th

Reddick was great in practice here, despite losing the car a spinning early in turn two, posting the third-best time and will start 6th as he looks to build off of the momentum from last week’s second-place finish. Reddick might’ve had the best car in the field but trouble on pit road made things a lot harder on him than they might’ve needed to be. Despite having two third-place finishes here, Phoenix has not been one of Reddick’s best tracks overall. Looking to build off of his strong run last week and good practice heading into this race, I would consider Reddick a strong tournament play as a longshot winner and possible mid to late-race dominator.

Denny Hamlin ($10,500), Starting on the Pole

We’ve seen Denny struggle at this track over the years and that’s not secret. What’s also no secret is how well the pole sitter has done as far as dominating laps here early suggesting that something has to give. Alongside Hamlin on the first row is Ty Gibbs giving the clear advantage to Hamlin. I would expect Denny to lead most of if not the entire first stage. Where he goes from there is really anyone’s guess based on his history here but there should be a solid floor with laps led and a good finishing position regardless.

Chase Elliott ($8,800), Starting 3rd

The cream has to rise to the top at some point for Elliott, one of the more talented drivers in the series in some of the best equipment out there. We can call it like it is, Chase has not been good over the past season and a half really and this is a former series champion we’re talking about here. Through the first three races of the season we’ve seen finishes of 14th, 15th, and 12th, albeit with a good car but the results just haven’t been there for this group. Elliott has won at Phoenix before and has five top-five finishes in 15 starts there. Practice was solid for the 9 car as he was the fastest Chevrolet in the 50-minute practice session. I’ll be looking at Chase in tournament lineups this weekend as I simply think he’s due to break through and the vibes are good on him contending for a win. He’s very intriguing in the third spot on the grid giving him a path to dominate early if Denny Hamlin slips up.

Kyle Larson ($11,500), Starting 17th

Elliott’s teammate, Larson is the overwhelming favorite to win this race ahead of qualifying and looking at his performance last week it’s tough to argue with that sentiment. His salary is undersandably high and that coincides with his performance this season and at these this type of track. Larson has a win and eight top-five’s in 19 races at Phoenix and led 201 laps here from the pole in the Spring. If you take out the one DNF Larson has had in the 5 car (engine failure in the Spring 2022 race), the man has an average finish of 4.8 in his last five races here. I expected a good qualifying mark here but that simply wasn’t the case as he’ll start back at 17th. Still, Larson will be a factor and if he drives like he did last week he could have a monster day if he gets up front and leads laps while producing that place differential floor.

Joey Logano ($9,500), Starting 23rd

The 22 car has been fast this season as he’s qualified on the front row at Daytona, Atlanta, and Las Vegas. In his career at Phoenix Logano has posted n average finish of 12th, which can be deceiving considering that he’s DNF’d in four of his 30 starts there. Looking a little bit deeper, Logano has won three times here while finishing in the top-five eight times and has led 82 or more laps here four times including 187 in the Fall of 2022 when he won from the pole. Furthermore his performance at similar tracks like Richmond and New Hampshire stand out. Here are some key stats from those tracks:

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

• 25 Starts
• Two wins, nine top-five’s

Richmond Raceway

• 29 Starts
• Two wins, 13 top-five’s
• Average finish of 10th

Logano stands out at these flat, short tracks and I don’t expect that to be any different come Sunday. For the first time this season he’ll start somewhere other than the front row, in this case he’ll have some ground to make up as he’s got good place differential he’ll likely produce starting 23rd

Brad Keselowski ($8,200), Starting 18th

101 races. That’s how long it’s been since Brad K. has visited victory lane. Heading to Phoenix, a type of track that has been good for Keselowski could be the ticket this weekend. In his career at Phoenix, New Hampshire, and Richmond the driver-owner of the 6 car has average finishes of 14th, 10th, and 12th respectively with 8 top-five’s at Phoenix, two wins and 10 top-five’s at New Hampshire, and two wins to go along with six top-five’s at Richmond.

Also Consider

Kyle Busch ($9,200), Starting 31st

Josh Berry ($7,200), Starting 36th

William Byron ($11,000), Starting 5th

Corey LaJoie ($6,300), Starting 35th

GOOD LUCK!!

The post The High Line – Cup Series- Shriners Childrens 500 – Phoenix Raceway – March 10, 2024 first appeared on Daily Ambush.

In the fourth race of the XFINITY Season the drivers take on the first “short track” of the season. Phoenix features a one-mile flat oval that is characterized as a short track. The drivers will turn 200 laps here in what will be the first of two trips here this season. Much like last week at Las Vegas, track position and pit road performance will play important roles in determining the standout performers of this event.

Strategy

In the first race here last season the majority of the laps were led by race-winner Sammy Smith (92) who started 11th in the field. Other notable lap-leaders included Cole Custer (38 laps led), Austin Hill (22), and John Hunter Nemechek (19). JHN, Hill, and Custer finished sixth, seventh, and 12th respectively. Notable movers included Kyle Busch (started 38th, finished ninth), Parker Kligerman (37th, 15th), and Anthony Alfredo (25th, 14th). This race will feature Cup standout William Byron who’s the highest-priced and presents the best odds to win. Nailing the drivers that we expect to finish well is obviously the key here but finding the driver or two that can lead the bulk of the laps will be just as crucial, especially in GPP formats.

Most comparable tracks: New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Richmond Raceway

Check the NASCAR Discord channel for updates following qualifying

*Note: all pricing is DraftKings focused

Top Drivers

William Byron ($12,000)

Byron will be in the 17 car this weekend in XFINITY and has a win and two top-fives in his XFINITY career at this track. In a Cup car Byron also has a win and two top-fives finishes at this mile-long track in the desert. It’s tough to look at anyone other than Byron as far as being the top dominator regardless of where he qualifies. Fitting him into strong lineups at his salary, though, will pose a bit of a challenge.

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,500)

Another Cup regular in this race is JHN who has performed well here at this level. In seven races at Phoenix JHN has an average finish of ninth and has led 33 or more laps on three seperate occasions (33 in 2018, 39 in 2021’s finale, and 66 in 2023’s finale). He’ll be a nice pivot off of Byron.

Cole Custer ($10,700)

Custer has been the class at this track over the last couple of trips here leading 38 laps here last Spring and 96 here last Fall en route to a win clinching the XFINITY Championship. As we move into more conventional tracks, look for Custer to build off of last season’s momentum at a track he’s been very strong at since coming back to the XFINITY Series full time.

Austin Hill ($9,500)

Speaking of momentum, Hill has been strong early on this season with two wins in the series’ first three races. At this track last year despite two seventh-place finishes, Hill managed to lead 22 and 21 laps. This team is clicking on all cylinders thus far and looking at his price tag, if we get a good qualifying effort here, Hill could present as a strong value as a dominator early.

Brandon Jones ($8,000)

Jones won here back in the first race here in 2020 when he was still with Joe Gibbs racing and has been strong thus far this season with two top-10 finishes. Despite starting deep in the field here last Fall, Jones turned a 22nd-place start into an 11th-place finish. Jones also led 24 laps at Richmond, a similar track to Phoenix as well as posting an 11th-place finish at New Hampshire, another track similar in characteristics to Phoenix.

Anthony Alfredo ($6,700)

Despite two poor qualifying efforts at Phoenix last season, Alfredo showed his ability to driver up to a respectable finish both times. In the Spring he started 25th and finished 14th and then again in the Fall Alfredo began the race way back at 38th only to climb up to a 24th-place finish. These numbers might not jump off the page at first glance, but considering his salary and likelihood to start toward the back-half again, he could present as a solid PD play.

Also Consider

Sammy Smith ($10,000)

Jesse Love ($8,200)

Jeb Burton ($6,900)

Kyle Weatherman ($6,300)

GOOD LUCK!!

The post The High Line – XFINITY Series – Call811.com Every Dig. Every Time. 200 – Phoenix Raceway – March 9th, 2024 first appeared on Daily Ambush.