CBB DFS – Dec 18th

There has been just one game PPD today due to COVID and that is the UNC-UCLA game, which they have not replaced on the main slate.

COLLEGE HOOPS TIPS & TRICKS

There are three things that make CBB Hoops a sport you can apply a stack style build to your lineups.

The pace differences are bigger than in NBA:   If you play NBA you know that pace is a factor, but it’s generally not the all being factor.  Well in College Hoops the difference in pace can be much larger given the shot clock being longer and the talent levels/styles of teams being far more drastic.  So we definitely want to focus on a high pace game and prefer ones where both teams play up at a higher pace.

Limited Bench:   Another major difference between College and NBA?  The NBA has set rotations on a nightly basis and a lot of times 8-9 guys are going to see enough minutes to draw down usage.  Not always the case in CBB as many teams will usually just have 6 or 7 core guys who get the minutes.

Focused Usage:   Because teams aren’t as deep here, we get focused usage generally on 1-3 players per team, which makes it easier to just grab the top plays in a given game and go from there.

My favorite build methods

I apply a 3-2-2-1 or 3-3-2 build style to most of my lineups.  That might ring a bell if you play MLB DFS and generally do a balanced stack approach, and it’s kind of the same thing here.  I want to focus my exposure on a couple of games and then fill in with the best one off value or one off stud outside of those 2 core games I want to focus on per lineup.

Narratives

With fans back in the stadiums this year we have home teams pulling off big game upsets more often, as was exhibit A with Rutgers on Monday night.  Most of these upsets are going to occur on weeknights during in conference games and not on the weekend games as much.

If you didn’t read last weeks introduction to CBB DFS article then go back and re-read it further to understand how to use the DFS Model here at DailyAmbush.

GAMES TO TARGET

Louisiana Tech vs LSU

LSU is a bad afternoon road team, but luckily for us they are at home tonight and this is a good offensive to target.

The Bulldogs will need their big man Kenneth Lofton Jr to stay out of foul trouble on the road and if he can do that he should have a potential double-double stat line with a good tempo in this game.  However we really want to focus on a guard from La. Tech vs LSU and both Cobe Williams (4100) and Amorie Archibald (5300) should hit value with Archibald being the more likely minutes and usage play.

The Tigers will run through Xavier Pinson, who once again has a glitch in the DK algo and will probably remain under $6,000 all season long.  Whenever he has a game that figures to be higher scoring he is on my radar.  The Tigers have yet to have a third leg be consistent enough and eventually it should become Eric Gaines once his minutes continues to increase.  At $3,600 he is a great value and should play well here today.  Darius Days is the other option.

Game Stack (in order):   Kenneth Lofton Jr (LT), Xavier Pinson (LSU), Eric Gaines (LSU), Amorie Archibald (LT)

Secondary Options:  Darius Days (LSU)

Marquette vs Xavier

Shaka Smart has Marquette still playing fast but if he tries to roll out a full court press against Xavier — which he obviously will — then we’re going to get a potentially elite performance out of Paul Scruggs.  Xavier is my pick to win the Big East regular season crown.  They are a veteran team who had a down year last year due to COVID and now that big man Zach Freemantle is back in the lineup they are playing with a full deck of cards.  Freemantle is priced where we probably wouldn’t touch him since the minutes aren’t fully there yet but this is likely the game he finally hits 4x.  With Freemantle back Jack Nunge takes a slight hit here and for me it’s really all about Paul Scruggs from Xavier.

Marquette should be able to shoot the 3 ball well today, Tyler Kolek leads the team with a 50% rate from beyond the arc and takes over 4 a game.  Him and/or Darryl Morsell have my attention today as I think Justin Lewis is going to struggle against hte Xavier bigs.  Lewis had a lesser role a season ago but did virtually nothing against Xavier in two meetings.

Game Stack (in order):  Paul Scruggs (XAV), Tyler Kolek (Marq)

Secondary options:  Zach Freemantle (XAV), Darryl Morsell (Marq)

POSITIONAL NOTES

I always break down the players into three pricing tiers.  7k and up is the High range, 5500 to 6900 is the mid range and 5.4k and below is the value/low end range.  Anyone who is 8k and above has to be in a dominant spot or on a slate with limited scoring on it.  Generally if you can find a balanced lineup in the mid range with 1 or 2 value plays and one high end play you will have the most success.  Going stars and scrubs in College Basketball is a MME build only in my mind on these larger slates, there’s just no need for all that risk.

For today the Guard depth is much deeper than Forward position today, you will likely end up with 5 guards in your lineup and most of them will come from the mid range 5.5k to 6.9k on DraftKings.  Below are my top two plays based on each tier

Guards

Tier 1 (7k and up)

  • Paul Scruggs – Xavier – 7400
  • RJ Cole – UCONN – 7100
  • Taz Sherman – WVU – 8100

Tier 2 (5500 to 6900)

  • Xavier Pinson – LSU – 5600
  • Boogie Ellis – USC – 6200
  • Tyler Kolek – Marquette – 6100

Tier 3 (5500 and below value)

  • Eric Gaines – LSU – 3600
  • Amorie Archibald – LaTech – 6300
  • Taze Moore – Houston – 4900

Forwards

Tier 1 (7k and up)

  • Kenneth Lofton Jr – LaTech – 7500
  • Trayce Jackson-Davis – Indiana – 8400
  • Darius Days – LSU – 7300

Tier 2 (5500 to 6900)

  • Race Thompson – Indiana – 6500 … Do not play WITH TJD.  One or the other.
  • Chevez Goodwin – USC – 6000

Tier 3 (5500 and below value)

  • Akok Akok – UCONN – 3900 … He has Guard Eligibility as well which is funny.  His status depends on the health of Sonogo who is questionable.

FAVORITE CORE

Guard: Xavier Pinson – LSU – $5,600

A staple for any exposure in the LSU game is Pinson.  He will play close to 30 minutes if the game remains close, has a 21% usage rate and a 30% assist rate.  Louisiana Tech is a below average defense with a good enough pace for LSU to play at their tempo.  Pinson should hit close to 25 fantasy points in this game.

Guard: Paul Scruggs – Xavier – $7,600

The ball will be in his hands a ton dealing with Marquette’s pressure and Scruggs should have a good offensive game.

Forward: Race Thompson – Indiana – $6,500

I want to pay up for my top guards today and yes, Trayce Jackson Davis is a chalky top end play who should thrive against Notre Dame.  But in home games when TJD gets all the attention we usually see Race Thompson do well on the boards and for this price I would lock him in as a core play.

ONIONS! – Contrarian Play

Guard: Taz Sherman – West Virginia – $8,100

Sherman is having an elite season as the star for the Mountaineers and today is going to be ignored due to being on the road and a low tempo/total game.  But there is a decent amount of value and a lack of pay up stud options who can get 40 points on this slate with the UNC/UCLA game gone and so Sherman fitting in as an extra UTIL guard is a nice pay up spot today.

TOP VALUES

Eric Gaines – LSU

Akok Akok – UConn … Depending on status of Sonogo

Taze Moore – Houston

GAME BETS

Houston / Oklahoma State under 134

Providence / UCONN Over 137

West Virginia +2

Indiana 1st Half ML / Indiana -4

srenner

Founder and CEO for The Daily Ambush. Author or The Dongers Club (MLB), The Ambush (NFL), The Slapshot (NHL) and The Tailgate (CFB).