CFB DFS: Saturday, Dec 12th

We are down to the end of the College Regular season for these teams and it’s going to be very sad as a not so normal Bowl Season approaches when we normally have some really exciting games to break down.  I must say this has been a fun and wild CFB year but I cannot wait for it to be normal again so we have less opting out in the future.

Today’s games

  • Georgia vs Mizzou
  • Wake Forest vs Louisville
  • Alabama vs Arkansas
    • Lets go COVID, do your thing!!!
  • Rutgers vs Maryland
  • Michigan St vs Penn St
  • Navy vs Army
  • Charleston vs Troy
  • North Carolina vs The U
  • Wisconsin vs Iowa
  • Houston vs Memphis
  • Duke vs Florida State
    • Good to see someone in Duke is still willing to play pro sports.

 

STACKS OF THE DAY

North Carolina vs Miami (Fl)

This is no doubt the marquee game of the day.  We have the all world UNC Tar Heel offense with some wild pricing across the board on their stars going into Miami to take on a Hurricanes team who is much higher scoring on both sides of the ball this year than in years past.  If there is one game folks will want to stack both QB and find value elsewhere it is this one.

For the Hurricanes it’s a great spot for King to load up on his stats both through the air and on the ground.  UNC plays fast and they allow a ton of yardage moving in a direction which is positive for fantasy.  Air or ground it doesn’t matter, King should eat today.  If you want to get sneaky with Cam’Ron Harris at RB go right ahead, I am done with him.  The decision is which of the non Harley WR do you trust and for me the TE Brevin Jordan stands out as the best option.

For North Carolina we’ve got some variance to sift through.  Dayami Brown should be $7,900 but instead due to a couple quiet weeks he is down to $6,600 and only $300 more than Dazz Newsome.  Play Dayami Brown who should hit 20 fantasy points by halftime.  Both RB are under priced too given Miami’s struggles at times in defending the ground game but outside of this being a weak RB slate I don’t think they are both must owns or anything.  Personally I would go with Javonte Williams but they split it even so both are fine.

UNC:   Sam Howell, Javonte Williams, Dayami Brown, Dazz Newsome

Miami:   D’Eriq King, Brevin Jordan

 

Houston vs Memphis

This is the most critical game of the day to identify.  Two key injuries to monitor on both sides which could open up value are Marquez Stevenson (Houston WR) and Rod Clark (Memphis RB).  If Stevenson sits then Keith Corbin at $5900 for Houston is an elite play.  If Clark sits then Kylan Watkins at $3700 is that punt RB that we want.  This also is a spot for Brady White to go out on a high note for Memphis in a potential shootout with Houston and he has two WR in Austin and Washington that should make his life very easy.  I like this as a slightly cheaper game stack than Miami/UNC just a little less secure in the star power.

 

Al-a-BAMA!

The Crimson Tide fresh off their dismantling of LSU will move on to dismantle Arkansas.  Gut feeling on this game?  It’s not a Devonta Smith game and by that I mean he probably only has 80 yards and a touchdown instead of 300 yards and 4 touchdowns.  But holy hell if you can find some value at RB2 and WR3 then load up on the Najee Harris express.  The reason though I am writing up Alabama as a stack is that we can expect to see Mac Jones, Najee Harris and either Smith or Mechie come out and be a nice solo team stack that gets you a solid floor.   Play a lineup with that core as a secondary build.

 

MY POSITIONAL RANKINGS

QUARTERBACKS

D’Eriq King (Miami)

Sam Howell (UNC)

Jordan Travis (Florida State)

 

Fade:  Malik Cunningham

 

RUNNING BACKS

Najee Harris (Alabama)

Deon Jackson (Duke) … Back to my boy Deon Jackson who is too cheap at 4,400 on DraftKings.  I assume he’s cheap on FanDuel as well but let’s be honest I dont open FanDuel for CFB until like 11:25 AM on Saturday’s and then button mash.  It’s just not my cup of tea because of their large slates.  Speaking of which, tea sucks, coffee is better and Deon Jackson is going to smash like a fine cup of Irish Coffee this week, lock him in vs a shitty Fla State rush defense.

Christian Beal-Smith (Wake Forest) … This guy is going to control my fade of Malik Cunningham.  Wake will run the ball behind him with Kennety Walker opting out earlier this week and against a bad rush defense he could have a big day chewing up the clock.

Javonte Williams (UNC)

Kylan Watkins (Memphis) … Longshot so check status on Memphis RB’s.

 

Fade:  Cam’Ron Harris

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Dayami Brown (UNC) … I love Brown this week and he’s getting INSANELY overlooked.  Brown was arguably the 2nd most reliable WR all season long behind Smith and now he gets a banged up Miami secondary in a potential shootout.  Load him up at only $6,600 this is a steal.

Calvin Austin III (Memphis) … Every once and a while I have a bug in my DFS model and this week Calvin Austin III found that bug.  His targets have been so incredibly high the last few weeks that it was only registering as a single digit on the game detail page.  You know what, you really don’t care about my bad coding do you?  He had 17 targets last week and 17 the week before that as well.  Brady White is going out with a bang and Austin/Tahj Washington are benefiting.  He’s $7900 but arguably worth paying up for.

Tahj Washington (Memphis) … Pivot off Austin or full game stack play.

Marquez Stevenson (Houston)

Brevin Jordan (Miami)

 

Fade:  That Alabama WR who is pretty good at the football.  Pray for me

 

Best Value WR:

  • Marshon Ford (Louisville)
  • Jalen Nailor (Mich St)
  • Jalon Calhoun (Duke)

srenner

Founder and CEO for The Daily Ambush. Author or The Dongers Club (MLB), The Ambush (NFL), The Slapshot (NHL) and The Tailgate (CFB).