World Series Showdown: Game 1

My Prediction

I like the Dodgers as the much deeper team to win the series and do so in 5 or fewer games.  They will now have been playing in this park for three rounds and with the roof open they have shown to have a lot of power upside in favorable hitting conditions.  But this is a great Tampa pitching staff, so I wouldn’t expect to see a ton of 8-7 type games.

Quick thoughts on showdown plays.

 

Tampa Bay Batters

Randy Arozarena shouldn’t be expected to slow down his torrid post-season pace just yet and makes for a nice combination with Hunter Renfroe (+366 ISO vs LHP this season) in the heart of the Rays order.

If you want a sneaky Ray to consider tonight for showdown, also consider #2 hitter Brandon Lowe in a LvL match-up against Kershaw.  I do not think Kershaw will pitch beyond the 5th inning today and with 4 RHB around Lowe, he’ll most likely see a righty out of the bullpen.  Either way, he’s been a good curveball hitter, which is typically Kershaw’s out pitch.

Tampa stack:  Lowe-Arozarena-Renfroe

Captain pick:  Brandon Lowe

 

Los Angeles Batters

The Dodgers love fastball pitchers and that’s what they get with Glasnow.  His velocity is enough to generate strikeouts but I think they’ll be sitting on him in the first inning which is typically his worst inning (ERA near 5 on the season in first innings).  Corey Seager is the main guy to focus on as out of all the Dodgers he has the best match-up at the top of the order and is someone who Dave Roberts will most likely not pull for defensive subs as the Rays go to their pen.  Will Smith is a good value for the FLEX role tonight and offers nice Captain value as well.  If we want a punt/value play, it has to be Joc Pederson even though with a lead he likely hits the bench after the 6th inning.

Dodger stack:   Seager-Smith-Pederson

Captain pick:  Corey Seager or Will Smith

 

Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw

I project Kershaw to go 5 innings tonight, limit damage to under 2 ER and have 6 strikeouts.  After the top of the order he should cruise through the Rays 5-9 hitters and do well enough to be used as a FLEX position today.  I would not pay for him in the Captain’s role.

Tyler Glasnow

Glasnow has always had challenges with a high pitch count and due to my love for the Dodgers 1-5 hitters against him, I cannot see paying for him in this game with him likely also having a short leash since Tampa’s bullpen is fully rested.

 

Best Bullpen value arms to consider

  • Nick Anderson, RHP (TB):  Would pair him in a Tampa hitting stack.  He’ll be called upon in a close game and for sure if Tampa is winning.
  • Aaron Loup, LHP (TB):  Loup is on the World Series roster because of the heavy amount of Dodger lefties.  He is a longshot but at 4k if he does get in he has good strikeout upside in a short span.
  • Pedro Baez, RHP (LAD):
  • Kenley Jansen, RHP (LAD):  They have to trust him if they are going to take home the crown.  He’s too cheap at $4,400 if you like the Dodgers to win.

 

srenner

Founder and CEO for The Daily Ambush. Author or The Dongers Club (MLB), The Ambush (NFL), The Slapshot (NHL) and The Tailgate (CFB).