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The Ambush – NFL DFS – Week 12

NFL Week 12 brings a benefit of fewer games on the Main slate due to extra Thursday night games but not too few overall.  It’s also a weird week for me mentally because I always feel like by the time the Thanksgiving Sunday games arrive it has been a month since we last had a full main slate DFS contest.  It’s just how I break up the week in terms of Thanksgiving and what not and maybe that is just me.  Granted, there is nothing at all wrong with time slowing down this time of year and it’s a great benefit that we have stadiums full of fans to watch games with across various sports.

Let’s enjoy it!

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Injury News

Keeping an eye out on the status of RB Elijah Mitchell for San Francisco

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Weather Information

It is very fine, we could use a blizzard game in Buffalo one of these December weekends though.

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Possible Trap/Look ahead spots

None

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Matthew Stafford

NFL DFS is about identifying trends and figuring out the woulda when it comes to Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda.   The Coulda applies to “they could do this”, the shoulda applies to “they should do this”, but the Woulda is they “Will do this” and the data is what drives the shoulda, the variance of football is the coulda, but the gut and analyst job is to identify the woulda.  No, I am not giving some history lesson on Jim Mora Sr. quotes by saying this but more I am telling you to ignore the shoulda & coulda when it comes to the Rams-Packers game this weekend.

The Rams have to get right and they have to get right through their darling Quarterback they acquired in the off-season.  There is no more dancing around and pretending to be something you aren’t.  The Rams are a team who thrives off play action and playing up tempo on offense.  With a defense good enough to cause pressure on the other side Sean McVey went into the bye week knowing they needed to come out and apply the pedal to the meddle on offense to stress the other team into the teeth of their defensive stars they have.

This is going to run through Stafford and the passing game.  The price on Cooper Kupp around the industry has everyone ignoring him but he’ll finish with a 10-160 type game in what I expect to be a back and forth shootout led by the Quarterbacks.  The Rams went out and got Stafford for a reason, and that was to be able to come into Lambeau Field and put pressure on the Packers.  He will finish over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns and for that reason is my #1 QB this week.

Ben Roethlisberger

Here we go.  Big Ben is making his likely final appearance ever in the Ambush which isn’t saying much because I have historically never been one to push Roethlisberger as I rarely have gotten him right — but those have typically been HOME games for Big Ben where he fails me.  This is going into his home away from home in his career at Cincinnati.

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I had Mac Jones written up as the third QB given a nice boost against the Titans defense, but Rob Geriak kind of talked me out of that mistake given the lack of Titans upside offensively and it makes sense.  So with my two QB above I have everything I need and I would only consider going to the other QB’s in those same games.  So that’s it, that’s the list.  The following QB I do expect to perform decently, but I prefer the two above.

Tom Brady, Mac Jones, Daniel Jones

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Saquon Barkley

A change in offensive coordinator should really benefit Barkley.  Whenever that happens the game tends to run through the QB position more but in this instance the QB or trusted player on the Giants offense is going to be Barkley and it should come in the form of the passing game.  The Eagles weakness on defense is at linebacker and they are giving up 6.8 catches per game to opposing RB.  Barkley is facing a team he likes to torment and should have his best game in a few years this Sunday as the Giants upset the Eagles.

Melvin Gordon

I hate bothering with the split backfield in Denver, but there’s no reason to completely ignore the running game vs the Chargers poor rush defense which gives up bottom 5 statistics in nearly every category but specifically in the touchdown department.  Against his former team, I expect Gordon to get into the box and provide a nice baseline score.

Elijah Mitchell

I would expect the 49ers to play Mitchell this week but he is one player we are monitoring come game time.  Minnesota is in a tough spot having played a road OT game in Baltimore, then a west coast travel game in San Francisco before last weeks thriller at home over the Packers.  I like the Vikings to ultimately keep this game close but their rush defense could prove to be the achillies heel against a 49ers offense which has gotten healthier and more dynamic with George Kittle back in the mix.

Miles Sanders

I dont mind playing Sanders with DeVonta Smith, but make no mistake Smith is my #1 of the two.  The price on Sanders though with increased usage (and Jordan Howard being out too) is a really good option as a 3rd RB.

Ty Johnson

My theme this week is not to pay too much at running back, but this is a play which even I have some major heartburn with.  Ty Johnson vaults into the void that Michael Carter’s injury has created and for $4,300 on DK (only play him there) he is a nice value option.

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There is definitely a cluster of ‘names’ at RB this week who are going to be popular, but for my money the spot to spend up on is at WR this week because the mid range is really void there.  So that is why I am not looking at the Ekeler, Mixon, Cook, Harris cluster even though those four are all in good spots and players I don’t mind considering in stacks.

DeVonta Smith

Smith was very quietly having his emergence in his rookie season before the Eagles had a blowout win over New Orleans where he was shadowed mostly by Marshon Lattimore.  Now Smith gets to run circles around James Bradberry who won’t be able to jam him or be physical enough with the light as a feather and premium route running Smith.   He will be sub 5% owned as everyone flocks to Miles Sanders and in my mind winds up being the guy you definitely wish you had at his price/ownership.  Remember Godwin on Monday night?  Double that here.

Cooper Kupp (and Davante Adams)

It’s VERY difficult to pair both of these guys together, and if you are doing it you almost certainly have to take the route of paying down at QB, TE and DEF elsewhere, which you can also definitely do this week.

I love the game and with all of the DFS industry finally giving up on stacking the 4:25 game of the week we’re going to see these two offenses run through their QB’s arms who are most certainly going to use their brains and get it to the best players on the field.  I project a massive catch game for Cooper Kupp so he is someone I am taking the shot on at his high price tag, while Adams is going to do what Adams does, drop 20 fantasy points period.

Diontae Johnson

Price considered Johnson and fellow wide-out Chase Claypool are very optimal plays.  A strong coverage advantage for the Steelers WR will result in Johnson having his usual double digit target game.

Mike Evans

Last week the Colts defense shined against Buffalo, but they’re still a sieve through the air and to yielding passing touchdowns.  Enter Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski into the chat as both of these guys are Brady’s go to passing TD reception plays.

Mike Williams

You don’t play Keenan Allen against the Broncos, you play Mike Williams with his big height advantage.

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Cheaper WR Options

Tyler Boyd

Obviously Chase is a good game stack play too but Boyd is a good lower price exposure route in this shootout game.

Randall Cobb / Van Jefferson / Odell Beckham

Any build that has Stafford (or Rodgers) should have two of their pass catchers with them.   Cobb should draw favorable spots for the Packers away from Ramsey while Jefferson and Beckham will take the top off once or twice on the Packers.

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Kyle Pitts

I hate the TE position with the passion of a 1,000 Karen’s but if ever there was a time to lock in on Kyle Pitts it should come against the Jaguars.

Anthony Firsker

A giant cesspool my friends, that is what we have with the Tight End position.  So the Titans come in off a bad loss without AJ Brown, without Julio Jones, without Derrick Henry, without much of a chance to do anything.  Yeah, this is a loss spot for them and they’re clearly just punting against a good Patriots team but that doesn’t mean they won’t get to run 3 plays each time they get the ball and 1/3 of those plays should result in passes to Firsker who had 7 targets a week ago and is really in line to have 5 catches, 62 yards at $2700 on DK.  TE is weak and you want stud WR this week, so consider the punts here.

Pat Freiermuth

Ben cannot throw 3 or hell even 4 touchdowns without one of them going to the TE position and the only TE in town right now is Friermuuuuuth.  His targets are leaping up as the third passing option (excluding checkdowns to Harris) and is a nice price point on DK at $4,300.

Jonnu Smith

A little touchdown revenge narrative for Jonnu Smith going up against his former team this week.  He does carry a questionable designation but is a near min priced play on DraftKings and should not have any better spots than this weekend to get his season turned around.

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Atlanta Falcons

After an ugly TNF loss at home to the Patriots look for Atlanta to bounce back and win on the road in Jacksonville with a solid defensive performance.  I don’t like much for the Jaguars side here so for $2500 you can play Atlanta and thank me later, or just never talk about it and give me a silent nod if you ever come across me out at the Supermarket like two husbands would do while dragged into a Target with their wives in the Holiday season knowing that their lives are wasting away and they feel each others pain.

New England Patriots

This is a pay up spot but the only sure thing defense that I could identify.

NY Jets / Houston Texans

This is an ugly defense kind of week and this game features a good chance at sacks, turnovers and just overall silliness.  I am much more confident in these defenses causing turnovers than I am the offenses putting up 30+ points.  This is an ugly shit show game, get a defense here for free.

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Rather than re-list everything I said above, here are the AMBUSH plays for this week

#1. QB-WR Play of the week

Matt Stafford to Cooper Kupp as the Rams/Packers game is the spot folks have been waiting for all season

#2. Contrarian RB of the week

Saquan Barkley makes his return to the national fantasy spotlight with 6+ catches, 150+ all purpose yards and 2 touchdowns beating out higher priced RB like Austin Ekeler, Christian McCafferry and others

#3. Must own WR of the week

DeVonta Smith reminds everyone why he was the Heisman trophy winner.  The Giants will have a hard time stopping him.

#4. Roster Construction thought of the week

Your main lineup should not be spending at TE or Defense, so consider vomit plays like Anthony Firsker and Falcons Defense

#5.  AMBUSH Fades of the week

  • QB:   Justin Herbert, Tyrod Taylor
  • RB:   Christian McCaffrey, Darrel Henderson
  • WR:  Keenan Allen, Michael Pittman
  • TE:   None

Bonus… AMBUSH Pivots

As I was going through my fades I really just noticed it’s more about X over Y, so here are a few this or that type picks

  • IND – Zach Pascal over Pittman/Hilton
  • LAC – Mike Williams over Ekeler/Allen
  • TB – Mike Evans over Gronk/Godwin, although Gronk is close 2nd
  • CAR – Panthers Defense over everything else
  • NYG – Barkley over everything else
  • PHI – Smith over Sanders

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Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it, Saquan Barkley?

Everyone says buy low and this is buying low on Barkley who is healthy enough to play the whole game and be utilized as much as humanly possible.  He had his best game of the season in a similar ‘desperation’ spot in New Orleans against a premium rushing defense and I would anticipate they utilize him here as well.  The whole world is going to Evan Engram and I’m like, hi, I’ll take Barkley.  Thanks.

Favorite Bets

Well the Vikings are drawing the luck of the road team in the Kenny Albert/Jon Vilma game, so we gotta bet them right?  10-1 on the season.

Carolina Panthers -2

Tampa Bay -3

NY Giants ML

Steelers/Bengals OVER 45

Rams/Packers OVER 47

Seahawks ML (MNF)

1PM ONLY BUILD

Steelers vs Bengals

4PM ONLY BUILD

Rams Stack

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