NFL DFS: Monday Night Football Showdown – Week 5 – Indianapolis Colts vs Baltimore Ravens

Looking to Build of Last Week

Both the Colts and Ravens won last week as primetime awaits them. The Ravens come in averaging the third-most total yards per game while the Colts’ offense has been inconsistent to this point ranking 20th in total yards per game. Injuries have been an issue for both teams all season and only the strong will survive on Monday night in what I think will be a grind-it-out type of game.

NOTE: All pricing references pertain to DraftKings

Showdown Strategy

When Showdown slates first became available I was not a big fan simply because I don’t often like change. When these slates were designed we hadn’t ever seen anything like them in the DFS world. Come to realize a few years later I really enjoy them. On a normal slate with multiple games, I would typically describe myself as a cash game player primarily. That’s where my focus typically lies; cash games/single entry tournaments and from there I’ll build lineups for multi-entry GPP contests. For me, the cash game/single entry strategy kind of goes out the window as I’ll hardly if ever play double-ups and single-entry contests in showdown. Instead, I’ll take a core of players, more than often three to four players in the game that I want in virtually every lineup, typically 20 or so, that I build. The core will usually include both quarterbacks and one to two skill players that I have to have. Like much of fantasy football volume is king but it comes with a price. The wrinkle is the captain’s spot in showdown lineups. The captain’s spot generates 1.5 times the amount of fantasy points scored however a player’s salary goes up in the captain’s spot obviously. Locking in a core and deciding on a captain is how I’ll start building lineups. From there I’ll fill in the rest of the spots with correlation and value plays. Don’t be afraid to get a little weird with these lineups because virtually anything goes!

Core Plays

Indianapolis Colts: QB Carson Wentz

Baltimore Ravens: QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews

How the Colts made their decision to play Carson Wentz on two bad ankles –  The Athletic

Despite some inconsistencies, Carson Wentz has held his own from a fantasy perspective to this point scoring at least 17.92 DK points in three of his four games this season. He had his best game last week as far as efficiency and was on target in the red zone completing five of seven passes with two touchdowns. Lamar Jackson’s security blanket has continued to be Mark Andrews, his tight end who’s priced way down at $6,600. Andrews has seven or more targets in each of his last two games with 67 yards and 109 yards in those two games. Andrews has yet to find the end zone yet this season but I expect his volume to remain the same and for him to get into the end zone sooner than later. Jackson has thrown the ball well over his last two games with 287 passing yards and 316 yards over the last two weeks. Look for Jackson to use his legs a bit more in this game in what I expect to be a close affair.

*NOTE: All plays above are obviously “Captain” viable

Captain Play

QB Lamar Jackson (BAL)

Ravens: ESPN analyst says the NFL might 'figure out' Lamar Jackson

Jackson will be my captain play across all of my lineups and much of this has to do with the volume and upside he brings as a dual-threat quarterback. He’s throwing the ball extremely well as I mentioned above and his ability to run could propel him to a three or four total touchdown night. There’s enough value and by getting somewhat creative with lineups there’s no reason to overthink this spot.

Flex Plays

WR Michael Pittman (IND)

Wentz has gravitated toward Pittman often making him a double-digit target hog in two of four games this year and last week he had eight targets. It’s somewhat concerning that Wentz rarely looks at Pittman in the red zone but hopefully with time that changes and this is a good matchup to do it with Pittman having a decisive size advantage over the Baltimore corners.

WR Sammy Watkins (BAL)

Watkins is a tremendous value considering that he’s seen at least seven targets in all four games. Despite there not being a ton of upside here with Watkins, he’s incredibly affordable like I said at $5,800 and that kind of value is huge considering how involved he is.

RB Jonathan Taylor (IND)

Colts' Jonathan Taylor analysis

For people that drafted Taylor in the first round of fantasy drafts, it’s been a frustrating four weeks to this point full of peaks and valleys. Last week Taylor went over 100 yards rushing for the first time this season but had just 16 carries. Taylor has had no more than 17 carries in any game this season and two weeks ago he inexplicably handled just 10 carries. Even in a tough matchup, it makes sense for the Colts to run the ball with what should be their bell-cow running back.

 

Also consider:

WR Marquise Brown (BAL)

  • A ton of boom or bust here. Hollywood is extremely expensive which is why I’m not higher on him.

WR Zach Pascal (IND)

  • Working out of the slot mostly, Pascal has a respectable five, seven, six, and five targets in the four games this season.

WR Rashod Bateman (BAL)

  • The rookie Bateman could make his debut on Monday and is just $200.

TE Mo Allie-Cox (IND)

  • Getting targeted in the red zone, saw three targets there last week resulting in two touchdowns.

K’s Justin Tucker (BAL), Rodrigo Blankenship (IND)

GOOD LUCK!!

Rob Geriak