NFL Week 3: TNF Showdown

Week 3 of the NFL Season kicks off with a Thursday Night AFC South Showdown between the Tennessee Titans and the Jacksonville Jaguars

No, wait!  Don’t hang up!!!  I think this game is going to be good!

OK, not really but this is one of those Showdown slates where you look at the players and build a lineup only to find out that you have a ton of salary cap remaining.  As I have stated before when doing single game showdown in the NFL you should either be rolling with one lineup and having fun, building about 5-15 lineups with a single CORE build or trying to max it out as best you can with many different correlations and exposure variations as possible.  I am going to walk through how I would approach each of these type of builds based upon how I see the game going.

 

VEGAS INFORMATION

Titans are 1.5 point road favorites and the over/under is a low 39.5 which is the lowest of all Week 13 games this weekend.

The same matchup last year produced a grand whopping total of 15 points when they met in Jacksonville and a 30-9 Titans win later in the year in Tennessee when Derrick Henry busted off a big 99 yard TD run also in a TNF game.  All total, the Titans have won 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams.

 

DEFENSES AND KICKERS

Don’t be shocked if you see very high ownership on both team defenses and kickers tonight.  It’s no longer super contrarian to roster defenses and kickers in showdown contests and with a projected low scoring game they are actually two safe paths to getting some core points in your lineup.  If a DEFENSE scores then they likely take over and win the CAPTAIN spot ownership, so consider the Titans D for example a very good play against the Jaguars offense.

 

MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT

I hate to be the guy that says chase last year, but Derrick Henry on the ground against Jacksonville should have success and is the top skill position player on this slate.  Tennessee will ride him heavily if they have a comfortable lead and he is their main TD option to consider.

Gardner Minshew didn’t exactly light the world on fire with his performance as much as he did with his pre-game wardrobe last week but if the Jaguars are going to do anything offensively it is through the air tonight and my Big TD Prediction here is Dede Westbrook scoring the first TD of the game for a little Minshew magic tonight.  Lock in Dede Westbrook against the Titans secondary which can be exploited.

 

SINGLE LINEUP CORE PLAYS

Derrick Henry, Dede Westbrook, Titans Defense

5-15 LINEUP CORE PLAYS

Spread out about 33% of each CORE locked in (5 lineups each)

Derrick Henry, Dede Westbrook, Titans Defense

Derrick Henry, Titans D, Jaguars D

Derrick Henry, Dion Lewis, Marcus Mariota

EXPECTED MME OWNERSHIP

VERY HIGH:   Fournette, Henry, Mariotta

HIGH:  Minshew, Walker, Westbrook

MODERATE:  Titans D, Jags D, Both Kickers, Lewis

LOW:  Humphries, Cole, Lee, Swaim

 

BETS

Image result for titans logo

  • Titans -1.5
  • UNDER 39.5
  • First TD:  Dede Westbrook
  • Final score:  23-10 Titans

 

srenner

Founder and CEO for The Daily Ambush. Author or The Dongers Club (MLB), The Ambush (NFL), The Slapshot (NHL) and The Tailgate (CFB).