The Ambush – Week 16 DFS

THE AMBUSH, WEEK 16

The feeling that I have on this weekend is that it’s important to really identify a team and coaching staff who is building towards next year.  I’m not one who necessarily feels that how you end one season plays into how you start the next season but there is a HUGE difference per say between one team who knows they will be back next year (i.e. Head Coach-QB) versus another which has a bunch of questions going into 2020.  For example, Arizona knows that Kingsburry and Kyler Murray will be back next year in 2020 — where as who the heck knows what is going to be the setup in Jacksonville next season.  The other thing to focus on is a team who maybe has been together for a while but just had a rough start to the season and is out of it now but seems stable going into the off-season and next year.  This week we don’t have too many that fit that mold, but I guess you could make a case for Atlanta being a team like that where they have a good match-up at home, they have a veteran QB and a veteran offense and they should be back next year.

Sunday Morning Updates

• Chris Rose is caught up in an ice storm or some shit and his 4th and Goal Article won’t be up today.  He said to definitely stack the Saints and play Taysom Hill everywhere because Taysom Hill is amazing.
• With D. Henry out today the Saints Defense does get a slight boost but the main thing here is to not rush to Dion Lewis necessarily.
• I love the Hawks-Cards game for sure, but something of note is that Kyler Murray is a sack and turnover machine.  He’s mini Jameis.  So although Cardinals will put up points, the Seattle D isn’t the worst play today.

FLY EAGLES FLY

We have ourselves a classic look better in fantasy than they are in reality game this weekend between the Cowboys and Eagles and I got a feeling nobody is gonna be on the right side but us.  The Cowboys and Eagles both have two things very much in common when they face off this weekend and it has nothing to do with their fanbases either.  This is a game that features two defenses which have the wrong perception associated with them in the general public right now and two Quarterbacks who are also constantly over-hyped or over-evaluated.

Pull up a chair, let me break this down for you very simply.  Carson Wentz is going to ball out as he has for the past 6 Quarters rolling through a bad Giants secondary once the rain started to fade away and rolling through a bad Redskins defense.  The kid has his confidence back and 100% this can be attributed to the LOSS of both Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffery.  Agholor has missed the last two games and Alshon went out mid way through the Giants game.  What has this done?  I swear Wentz was pre-reading where he would go a lot before the ball was snapped and it felt like the Eagles would just have drives that shot themselves in the foot despite having an offensive line that has week after week after week played fantastic.  They will give him time to carve up a Cowboys defense who while terrible has given up 26, 31 and 21 points the last three weeks and yes those 21 by the Rams were mostly garbage points but it was clearly the get right game for Dallas at home.  Now going on the road against their division rival with everything on the line we have a game that is similar to the 49ers-Saints in the sense of when we have two equal teams in a big game we get BIG PLAYS.  Only, uh, well.  No, this game isn’t gonna be half of what that game was because these are 7-7 teams and not 11-3 teams.  But hey, it’s still gonna be a back and forth game and nobody will have 2% owned four touchdown Carson Wentz this weekend leading the Eagles to the 31-27 win.

AMBUSH PLAY #1:   Wentz re-claims the Philly Love, throws for 4 TD, 300+ yards and Amari Cooper breaks all the Cowboys WR records on the other side.  Very good game here.

ONE OFF RECEIVERS

I’m not gonna over hype these plays too much because it’s not really a gut feeling or anything along those lines, but Courtland Sutton and Tyler Boyd are easily the top two receivers on my list this weekend that should be focal points of your DFS lineups.  I expect Boyd to potentially be 30-40% owned going up against the Dolphins this weekend.  He’s been consistent no matter who has been at QB for the Bengals all season and has only been held under 10 fantasy points twice since the middle of October and one of those was last week vs a really good Patriots secondary.  The Phins haven’t slowed down much in the passing game all season and there’s no reason to not think Boyd would get 8-10 targets, haul in 6-7 of them and get near 100 yards and a score this weekend.  But Courtland Sutton to me might do better against the Lions who just let the Bucs go for 450+ on them last week and don’t get much pass rush either which should give Drew Lock time to lock in on Sutton and throw it to him as much as possible.  Sutton is quickly becoming one of those WR that you consider every week no matter the game floor or opponent and he has potential to be a top 3 WR overall this weekend.

AMBUSH PLAY #2:  Boyd and Sutton at WR

CARDS vs SEAHAWKS

The previous meeting with these two NFC West teams didn’t quite live up to the offensive DFS hype but it won’t hold me back from going here again.  I really think the Cardinals fall into the category of one of those teams who is ascending going into the final games of the season with a Coach and QB that are secure to return next year and I really like them to try and give Seattle a scare in what is really a look ahead spot for Seattle with San Francisco looming in Week 17.   Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson — yes, that guy, remember him?  Those two have done great over their careers in Seattle and both will score this weekend.  Is DJ a good play?  Probably not with how Drake has been the main back, but don’t be shocked when DJ, not Drake scores a receiving TD in this game.  The Wilson & Seahawks stack will be a popular one for good reason, it’s hard to overlook Wilson unless you go off the reservation with my Carson Wentz love this weekend, but we should be smart and make sure to get his receiving options such as Jacob Hollister (TE vs Arizona) and DK Metcalf (not Lockett for me) as premium plays.

AMBUSH PLAY #3:  Stick with the birds out west, and get Fitz, Hollister and Metcalf exposure

SAVE LAMAR, GO WITH MARK INGRAM

The Browns beat the Ravens in Baltimore fairly convincingly earlier this season.  That aint happening this weekend.  Baltimore should absolutely destroy Cleveland and I don’t see any reason for them to ride Lamar Jackson this week which means the path to winning has to be Mark Ingram and the Ravens actual running backs.   Ingram has four 100 yard rushing games this season and three of them have come on the road and in each of those road games he has found the end zone as well.  If the Ravens defense does what I anticipate and limits Cleveland then there’s zero reason for Baltimore to keep riding Lamar Jackson as the game moves along when Ingram should be able to get 4-5 YPC against the Browns Defense which is already in the offseason.

AMBUSH PLAY #4:  Mark Ingram for 100 yards and a touchdown is a top RB this week

AMBUSH PLAYS

1. Eagles vs Cowboys, powered by Carson Wentz
2. Tyler Boyd and Courtland Sutton are must own WR’s
3. Cardinals vs Seahawks is as advertised, but don’t overlook Arizona
4. Mark Ingram is a top RB, it’s not Lamar Jackson’s week.

QUARTERBACKS

This is where I make a stand and avoid the “safe” narrative of “oh this guy is the obvious play, go with him” recommendations you will hear about Russ Wilson and then everyone tries to take credit for listing someone like Wentz in their “GPP ONLY” write-ups.  Nah.  F that bro.  You don’t just get to hype up Carson Wentz day and then run off scared listing him as a 7th Quarterback.  Not gonna happen here.  Just like Drew Brees two weeks ago was my #1 QB for the first time all season and the only time all season.   I like it.  I say it.  Here it is.

1. Carson Wentz
2. Russell Wilson
3. Kyler Murray

RUNNING BACKS

1. Mark Ingram
2. Miles Sanders … He is the Eagles best player not named Zach Ertz, and one could argue he is even better right now in the offense.  Nobody will have him and he will score 20 again.
3. Joe Mixon … Getting a ton of hype but Tyler Boyd is my preferred Bengal.
4. Alvin Kamara … He’s chalk, he has scored in ONE game this season.  I can see lots of catches and being valuable to have on DK, but he shouldn’t be this popular.
5. Marlon Mack
6. Derrick Henry … His injury is definitely a concern, but if the workhorse is healthy I can see him ending the Saints streak of stopping 100 yard 

WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Courtland Sutton 
2. Tyler Boyd
3. DK Metcalf

STUDS

1. Michael Thomas … Very pricey on FD.  He should get a high catch volume, probably 100 yards and a TD as well, but the 9k price is tough for him to be a must own.
2. Amari Cooper … It’s Cooper or Gallup, you will want one of them for sure in every lineup.  I lean Cooper to have a huge game as Dak locks in on him.

SECONDARY OPTIONS

1. Larry Fitzgerald
2. Michael Gallup

SLEEPER

1. Russell Gage … I love Gage this weekend and it’s a game that I’m not that high on overall, but Gage is your Perriman type guy this weekend. 

TIGHT ENDS

1. Dallas Goedert / Zach Ertz
2. Jacob Hollister
3. Hunter Henry

DEFENSES

1. Indianapolis
2. NY Jets
3. Denver
4. New Orleans
5. SEATTLE

A new section that I am bringing to my article each week.  This is my sneaky way of providing thoughts on lots of the games without actually “touting” or recommending specific plays each week.  It’s for those of you who love to ask questions on Twitter, Slack or whatever other method you prefer.

Okay, what’s the game you aren’t heavy on that scares you?

Saints vs Titans … I think both teams lean more on the running game than the passing game even though the numbers and the logic says both teams are better off passing the ball this week.  The Saints have flipped the switch offensively and have been the #1 offense over the past month of the season so I can definitely see them, along with a banged up defense, having to come out this weekend and scoring 30 on a Titans Defense that is vulnerable through the air.  For the Titans they need a win to save a slim chance at the playoffs so you can imagine they’ll do whatever it takes on offense to keep up if this does turn into a shootout — I just don’t think it does.

Reminder on a couple things you should be looking for each week are as follows

• Tournaments with less than 1k users in them
• Tournaments with less than 300 users in them
• Tournaments that pay 10x to first not 50x to first
• Higher paylines (% of people who get paid)
• How much does 10th place get?  20th place?

Focus on not first place but below that.  Make sure you are playing a tournament that is one you can win in and will not have a ton of tilt by entering a lineup and having to worry about every single person who scores on the slate.  You’ll find that in the long run any tournament that only pays 10x to first is one you will profit in.