TNF Showdown – Week 4: Eagles vs Packers

Image result for eagles vs packers

The Week 4 season kicks off with a big game between the Eagles and Packers, from Lambeau Field on Thursday night.  The Eagles come in at 1-2 having lost two in a row and having tons of injuries and question marks around how good Carson Wentz is, how good are the receivers, can the defense generate pressure and seemingly all the pressure in the world to win this game to stay within shouting distance of the Dallas Cowboys.

For Green Bay, they are playing in their third straight home game and continue to get by looking just good enough as they have come out 3-0 with wins over the Bears, Vikings and Broncos.  Another win here against a top NFC opponent would really put the Packers in a great spot towards a playoff position later in the season.

The weather for Thursday night looks ideal for everyone with temps in the 60’s and no precipitation or heavy winds (about 10-13 mph) in the forecast, so nothing to be concerned with on that front.

Notable injuries:   All indications are that Alshon Jeffery will be IN for the Eagles but DeSean Jackson will be OUT.

Vegas Information:   Packers are 4 point favorites and the total is 46.

 

THE MUST OWN PLAYER

Image result for davante adamsDavante Adams – WR – Green Bay

Sometimes you have to take what feels like the obvious star play and ride it to victory.  Not only do I see Adams having a big game tonight worthy of Showdown but he is in a great enough spot along with a very good SNF-MNF set of games to warrant playing the full TNF-MNF slates on DraftKings and FanDuel this week.

Adams has only one 100 yard receiving game to start the season and zero touchdowns so far.  That changes against an Eagles secondary who has been beat up by #1 receiving options in each of the first three games this season.  Although Kenny Golladay is considered the Lions #1 WR by some, Marvin Jones is equal to him and scored a TD vs the Eagles last week, so don’t take Kenny G’s bad day as thinking the Eagles are suddenly good in the secondary.  This is a prime spot for Adams to reach 100 receiving yards and a score, which makes him a Showdown must own and worthy of TNF-MNF lineups.

Davante Adams going over 100 yards receiving AND a touchdown is my LOCK of the night.

 


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GAME THEORY

I project this game to be a high scoring affair going OVER the total this week.  Both teams will be able to move the ball through the air and although the perception is that the Packers are better, let’s remember that coming into the season the Eagles were a darling for the Super Bowl from the NFC and they aren’t going to continue to struggle.  With Alshon back this should give Wentz enough security to trust him and his go to guy Zack Ertz and have a big game.  Plugging in Wentz-Ertz-Adams as a core is a must this week for those backing the Eagles to win like myself.

The other side of the coin would look to the Packers passing game, but one way to hedge off that full chalk is to only go Rodgers-Adams as a passing correlation and lock in Jonathan Williams or Jimmy Graham as secondary passing options that will be lower owned than guys like Marquez Valdez-Scantling or Aaron Jones.

 

SHOWDOWN PLAYS TO TARGET

ELITE PLAYS:   Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, Zack Ertz

These are the primary correlations to pay up for tonight on both sides.  I would anticipate every lineup that profits tonight has one of the main QB-pass catcher correlations listed above and likely has 3 of these 4 players in them.  They should dominate the stat sheet tonight.

 

GOOD VALUE:   Miles Sanders,  Mason Crosby, Jake Elliott

In a game where the offense looks pretty good, you need to consider strongly kickers as most possessions will end in points and the value on both of these players helps balance your lineup out in Showdown.

 

DEEP VALUE:   Jonathan Williams,  Mack Hollins, Darren Sproles, Mercedes Lewis/Jimmy Graham

The Eagles have struggled at times to get enough pressure on the QB, which opens up Lewis or Graham to be running more routes and get involved in the passing game this week.   Monitor Graham’s health but he is likely going to play.

 

BETS

  • Eagles 1H ML
  • Eagles +4
  • OVER 46

srenner

Founder and CEO for The Daily Ambush. Author or The Dongers Club (MLB), The Ambush (NFL), The Slapshot (NHL) and The Tailgate (CFB).