The LSU vs Florida game has been PPD due to COVID-19. This would have been a shootout, so it kind of balances out the slate with it gone now.
TOP TIER GAMES
75: UCF (-3.5) at Memphis
76: Ole Miss (-3) at Arkansas
60: Duke at N.C. State (-4.5)
54: Texas A&M (-6.5) at Mississippi St
MID RANGE GAMES
62: Virginia (-3) at Wake Forest
64: Louisville at Notre Dame (-17)
51: Auburn (-3) at South Carolina
64: Clemson (-27) at Georgia Tech
GAMES THAT I HAVE LITTLE TO NO INTEREST IN
51: Kansas at West Virginia (-22.5) — Couple one off WVU players here against a really bad Kansas defense.
44: Cincinnati (-3) at Tulsa
46: Kentucky at Tennessee (-6)
51: Pittsburgh at Miami Fl. (-9.5)
TOP GAMES OF THE DAY
CFB is generally very chalky in relation to the over/under projections because there’s good reason for them tied to offenses generally being one dimensional, so the choice on these top games is if you go all in, balance them all out, or fade one and mix in the appropriate one offs.
Marquee Game
UCF (-3.5) at Memphis
This was always going to be my top game even with the LSU-Florida game on the slate. Memphis has had a crazy season thus far playing on September 5th, then two COVID cancelations, a tough loss at SMU on October 3rd and then a BYE last week. They return to action at home against UCF in what really does project as a nice close shootout.
Brady White was not good in the game vs SMU but back at home I expect him to shine. Outside of two late season games against a tough Cincinnati team, White was able to throw for 3 or more touchdowns in his other home games against relevant opponents last season. With Coxie and Dykes both getting a combined 54% of his targets, they make for a very solid stack today.
UCF to me is the better team and so we gotta make a decision on going with Dillon Gabriel naked at $8500 or trying to mix and match among Otis Anderson (6400), Greg McRae at a discount (4500) or take the obvious and load up on the WR against the Memphis secondary which has given up an average of 386 yards per game through the air this year (a bit inflated facing SMU). That would be Marlon Williams and Jaylon Richardson with Jacob Harris being the value play. It appears Tre Nixon could miss this game which boosts all three of those guys.
UCF: Dillon Gabriel, Marlon Williams (WR) and/or Jaylon Robinson (WR)
Memphis: Brady White, Damonte Coxie (WR), Sean Dykes (WR), Kylan Watkins (RB)
Sneaky Game
Duke at N.C. State
Duke has slowly been improving on offense and NC State is still one of the lower ranked defenses despite upsetting a lot of DFS lineups last week against Brennan Armstrong. Duke is on the road but is a favorite and faces the bad NC State defense while having a ton of amazing DFS value. N.C. State has allowed 9 rushing TD on the season in four games and after Deon Jackson ran all over Syracuse without a TD last week I expect the variance to be kind on him this week. Considering how much Duke runs the ball, it’s not comforting to think of doing a QB-WR-WR stack with Duke, but consider the prices on Chase Brice ($5,500), Jalon Calhoun ($4,300) and Noah Gray ($3,800) and my God, what are we doing here DraftKings? All that value against a horrific defense?
Duke: Chase Brice, Deon Jackson, Jalon Calhoun, Noah Gray
NC State: Emeka Emezie (WR)
MY POSITIONAL RANKINGS
QUARTERBACKS
Matt Corrall (Ole Miss) – $8,800
Dillon Gabriel (UCF) – $8,500
Brady White (Memphis) – $8,000
Chase Brice (Duke) – $5,500
RUNNING BACKS
We have so much value at WR this week that it’s probably smart to lock in a couple studs here
Kyren Williams (Notre Dame) – $7,200
Notre Dame is home against a Louisville rush defense who allowed over 5 YPC last season and this year isn’t much better at around 4.51 YPC to opponents. What is interesting in a limited amount of games so far is that Kyren Williams has gotten 17% of the targets from Ian Book so far. It’s only amounted to 6 catches through three games so lets not get all over excited about it but the small Soph. RB has made the most of his touches through the air and is getting it 16 times per game on the ground. All total if we have him getting ~20 touches for 5 yards per touch then that’s gonna be a 100 yard game and the way Notre Dame is moving the ball they should score 4 touchdowns which to me smells like a 2 TD day for him.
Leddie Brown (WVU) – $8,200
Leddie has been one of the more consistent RB this year for a much better WVU offense. They’re getting the whipping boys of the Big XII, Kansas at home in Morgantown. He should smash.
Kylin Hill (Miss St) – $6,800
The RB is used in this offense like CMC, Alvin Kamara or Austin Ekeler are used for their NFL teams. However, there’s all sort of rumors about Hill being scared off a concussion or Mike Leach having him in the doghouse. There’s a ton of value that would open up with his replacement if he doesn’t go, but honestly I want Hill in there and I feel he would be a lock play if he does play.
Travis Etienne (Clemson) – $8,600
All he did last year against Ga. Tech was pop for 3 touchdowns, 200+ yards on 12 carries. They’ll run away with this one and his only limitation is going to be Lynn-J Dixon stealing home run carries from him or just not playing much in the second half. I wouldn’t jam him into your lineup as a must own but he’ll “get his”.
VALUE RB:
- Wayne Taulapapa (UVA)
- Kylan Watkins (MEM) … Has great upside in a potential shootout.
- Lyn-J Dixon (CLEM) … Sub $4,000 and getting 4-5 touches per game against a bad rushing defense. I strongly feel he will pay off this week, but you’d likely play him just with 2 high priced Quarterbacks.
WIDE RECEIVERS
GAME STACK WR’S
Damonte Coxie (Memphis) – $6,100
No doubt he’ll be chalk. No doubt you’ll need him in my mind at this price. I’m not sure why in DFS we see a player we love and then see their price and say “oh man, I can’t play him because he is chalk!”. Don’t be that guy (or gal).
Jaylon Robinson (UCF) – $6,400
I would not load up on Memphis without some UCF exposure.
Treylon Burks & Mike Woods (ARK) – $4,700 / $5,100
If Burks is OUT (which it doesn’t look like he will be) then Woods would become a must own. These two are the most reliable options for Arkansas in the passing game.
Elijah Moore (Ole Miss) – $8,000
Consistently is getting it done in this offense. Only concern is Arkansas cannot stop anything on the ground so will Ole Miss have to pass that much?
ONE OFFS
Amari Rodgers (Clemson) – $6,200
Rodgers is the clear #1 for the Clemson Tigers passing game and this should be an easy spot for Clemson to do whatever they want and get him over 100 yards for the first time this season.
Anthony Schwartz (Auburn) – $5,500
Who the hell in the state of South Carolina is gonna keep up with this guy?
Terrell Jana (UVA) – $5,300
Keylon Stokes (Tulsa) – $5,200
Stokes is another high volume play and while it’s not a projected high scoring game he should be a one off mid range WR that you can trust to get over 15 DK points this week.
Value WR:
- Noah Grey (Duke) – $3,800
- Frank Ladson Jr (Clemson) – $4,600
- Tommy Tremble (ND) – $3,200
- Austin Williams (MSST) $4,400
CORE BUILD
RB Kyren Williams
WR Damonte Coxie
WR Jaylon Robinson