UPDATE
- Zack Greinke IS starting for Houston today, so cross Javier off. But don’t trust Greinke on limited pitch count most likely.
- Dustin May is starting for the Dodgers today. This is going to end really bad for L.A. REALLY Bad….
After day after day of home runs and continued overs in this second round as we expected, we could in my mind see some nice pitchers duel’s today as every game is a potential elimination game and even though there aren’t any true Ace’s going, that would be Baseball! as they say. As Baseball fan’s, let’s hope that the Marlins, Athletics, Yankees (ew!) and Padres all win so we have a four game Friday tomorrow.
Atlanta (Wright) vs Miami (Sanchez)
Of all the teams facing elimination I give the Marlins the best chance today. I know the Braves pitching has been lights out this post-season, but Sixto Sanchez grades out very well for me today and impressed in their Wild Card round against the Chicago Cubs. If his command is on then we have the potential to see a 7 strikeout performance from the young star.
The side which I trust the most in this game though would be the Marlins bats against Kyle Wright. Wright really struggled with being consistent against LH bats in his rookie season allowing a .393 wOBA, 2.0 HR/9 and walking 16% of lefties he had to face. Hello Corey Dickerson who let me down yesterday but remains an elite play at his price today.
Best Bet: Marlins
Stack: Marlins (Dickerson – Aguilar – Anderson – Joyce – Sierra)
One off: Freddie Freeman
Better Pitcher: Sixto Sanchez
Oakland (Montas) vs Houston (Javier)
This is where Houston is really missing Zack Greinke as they go into Game 4 with a 2-1 series lead but have to face Frankie Montas and an Athletics team who seemed to wake up quite a bit yesterday. Montas was so-so against the Astros in three starts this season, with his best outing coming the first time they matched up in a 7 inning shutout performance. The weather in L.A. has been fantastic for hitting but is cooled off a little bit today which could make this the sneaky Pitcher’s duel of the day. If you are related to Austin Powers and Danger is your middle name, you’ll bet the under and just close your eyes. If Montas is managing his pitch count well, he will wind up being the guy you need in DFS, but there will be a short leash in my mind at the first sign of trouble as Oakland is in a do or die spot today. He’ll be very low owned for a four game slate and has to navigate through Michael Brantley potentially knocking him out with his third double of the day (yes, I love Brantley today).
But the pitcher who I think really makes this game go under is Cristian Javier. He’ll get a heavy right handed lineup which favors him greatly as he struck out 30% of righties on the season and Oakland RH bats will most certainly help contribute more to that today. If Tommy La Stella is out after getting HBP yesterday then it boosts him even more. The concern with Javier? He hasn’t been used as a length starter since September 24th and who knows what Dusty Baker really wants to do with him today. The benefit Houston has though is they’ve got the 2-1 series lead and there’s zero reason for them to blow their bullpen trying to win this game when Mike Fiers is looming in game 5 for Oakland.
Best Bet: Under
Stack: None, just take a couple one offs
One off: Michael Brantley (HOU) and Jake Lamb (OAK)
Better Pitcher: Montas & Javier game stack
Tampa (Opener & Yarbrough) vs New York (Montgomery)
Tanaka got screwed last night. No way around it as the strike zone was not balanced early in this game and it led to Tanaka giving up the 3 run homer to Kevin Keirmaier when he should have been out of the inning. But hats off to Tampa who now is one win away from knocking the Yankees out of the playoffs. Unfortunately, this game is going to go to the Yankees so long as Aaron Boone doesn’t completely ruin their chances today with a boneheaded move.
The fact that nobody is paying attention at the DFS sites and hasn’t forced Randy Arozarena’s price tag up is ridiculous. The kid is locked in and everything he hits just flys out of the park, it’s hard to overlook him as a super value play day in and day out. Same is true for Giancarlo Stanton, who you guessed it, homered again in PETCO Park last night. Nobody will laugh at you for playing both of these white hot hitters today, but please do not roster Stanton without considering Luke Voit vs a LHP as well. The Rays are projecting to bring in Yarbrough after an opener and if that holds true, Luke will use the force.
Best Bet: Over
Stack: Yankees (Voit-Stanton-LeMahieu)
One off: Randy Aronzarena
Better Pitcher: Jordan Montgomery
Dodgers (Urias) vs San Diego (Morejon)
Welcome to the grand finale! If you love offense you have come to the right spot tonight my friend and this could quickly turn into a bullpen game of who has the better middle innings relief — and that would be San Diego. Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis were hitting “piss rockets” last night and are the first two star players I want to lock into lineups today. This series is just getting started as I love the Padres to win today and tomorrow to force this to a fifth and final game five.
Best Bet: Padres Win
Stack: Padres (Machado, Tatis, Hosmer) & Dodgers (Turner, Muncy, Mookie)
Better Pitcher: Neither
DFS Plays
Pitchers (ranked)
- Sanchez
- Montgomery
- Montas
- Javier
Stacks (ranked)
- Padres
- Dodgers
- Marlins
- Yankees
Top one off batters to consider outside of the ‘Stacks’ mentioned above.
C: Sean Murphy
1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Mike Brosseau
3B: Stop! Play Machado!
SS: Corey Seager
OF: Michael Brantley, Giancarlo Stanton, Randy Arozarena
Chairman of the Dongers Club:
Corey Dickerson – Right back to the well here today.
Game Predictions
- Marlins and slight lean towards the under. I would prefer Marlins -1.5 on an alternate line.
- Athletics & under
- Yankees & over
- Padres & over