I like the Dodgers as the much deeper team to win the series and do so in 5 or fewer games. They will now have been playing in this park for three rounds and with the roof open they have shown to have a lot of power upside in favorable hitting conditions. But this is a great Tampa pitching staff, so I wouldn’t expect to see a ton of 8-7 type games.
Quick thoughts on showdown plays.
Tampa Bay Batters
Randy Arozarena shouldn’t be expected to slow down his torrid post-season pace just yet and makes for a nice combination with Hunter Renfroe (+366 ISO vs LHP this season) in the heart of the Rays order.
If you want a sneaky Ray to consider tonight for showdown, also consider #2 hitter Brandon Lowe in a LvL match-up against Kershaw. I do not think Kershaw will pitch beyond the 5th inning today and with 4 RHB around Lowe, he’ll most likely see a righty out of the bullpen. Either way, he’s been a good curveball hitter, which is typically Kershaw’s out pitch.
Tampa stack: Lowe-Arozarena-Renfroe
Captain pick: Brandon Lowe
Los Angeles Batters
The Dodgers love fastball pitchers and that’s what they get with Glasnow. His velocity is enough to generate strikeouts but I think they’ll be sitting on him in the first inning which is typically his worst inning (ERA near 5 on the season in first innings). Corey Seager is the main guy to focus on as out of all the Dodgers he has the best match-up at the top of the order and is someone who Dave Roberts will most likely not pull for defensive subs as the Rays go to their pen. Will Smith is a good value for the FLEX role tonight and offers nice Captain value as well. If we want a punt/value play, it has to be Joc Pederson even though with a lead he likely hits the bench after the 6th inning.
Dodger stack: Seager-Smith-Pederson
Captain pick: Corey Seager or Will Smith
I project Kershaw to go 5 innings tonight, limit damage to under 2 ER and have 6 strikeouts. After the top of the order he should cruise through the Rays 5-9 hitters and do well enough to be used as a FLEX position today. I would not pay for him in the Captain’s role.
Glasnow has always had challenges with a high pitch count and due to my love for the Dodgers 1-5 hitters against him, I cannot see paying for him in this game with him likely also having a short leash since Tampa’s bullpen is fully rested.
Best Bullpen value arms to consider
- Nick Anderson, RHP (TB): Would pair him in a Tampa hitting stack. He’ll be called upon in a close game and for sure if Tampa is winning.
- Aaron Loup, LHP (TB): Loup is on the World Series roster because of the heavy amount of Dodger lefties. He is a longshot but at 4k if he does get in he has good strikeout upside in a short span.
- Pedro Baez, RHP (LAD):
- Kenley Jansen, RHP (LAD): They have to trust him if they are going to take home the crown. He’s too cheap at $4,400 if you like the Dodgers to win.