So much for last Saturday being the best DFS slate of the year. It quickly turned south as soon as I got news after 12PM that my favorite play of the day Tutu Atwell was not going to be active out of the blue. That quickly summed up last Saturday in what has been a very up and down year so far. Lots of guys opting out, bad reporting, etc. It’s stressful but this remains my favorite DFS sport to sweat still.
This weekend’s main slate has the most diverse set of games with teams from various conferences mixed into the main slate.
Below I have broken the games down by their start time window rather than Top/Mid/Bottom tier. The color coding indicates the Top/Mid/Tier games.
UPDATE – Clemson vs Florida State has been Postponed!
NOON GAMES
64: LSU at Arkansas (-2.5)
51: Appalachian State at Carolina-Charleston (-4.5)
68: Clemson (-34.5) at Florida State
68: Florida (-31) at Vanderbilt
56: Illinois at Nebraska (-15.5)
64: Indiana at Ohio State (-21)
3:30 PM GAMES
52: California (-6) at Oregon State
62: Cincinnati (-4) at UCF
47: Iowa (-2.5) at Penn State
46: Wisconsin (-7) at Northwestern
4:00 PM GAMES
55: Virginia Tech (-3) at Pittsburgh
58: Kentucky at Alabama (-30)
49: Kansas State at Iowa State (-11)
TOP GAMES OF THE DAY
CFB is generally very chalky in relation to the over/under projections because there’s good reason for them tied to offenses generally being one dimensional, so the choice on these top games is if you go all in, balance them all out, or fade one and mix in the appropriate one offs.
Favorite Game
Cincinnati (-4) at Central Florida
This is a major statement game for Cincinnati and their defense against a very formidable offense in Central Florida. Cincinnati has had some cakewalk games lately but that doesn’t mean they’re suddenly going to give up 80 points to a high powered UCF offense. That said, it’s a tough spot for them and we should be looking here for a good back and forth game. On the Cincinnati side of the ball Desmond Ridder, Gerrid Doaks and Alec Pierce are all in play as a full Bearcats stack against a weak UCF defense. Pierce should be cleared to go again after battling some injuries all season long and remains a fantastic WR value play at $4,500. Even if you do not go full Cincinnati stack you need Pierce this week in my mind but I love going even Doaks and just Pierce.
Cincinnati: Desmond Ridder, Gerrid Doaks, Alec Pierce
UCF: Dillon Gabriel, Jaylon Robinson
MY POSITIONAL RANKINGS
You will notice that the positional rankings might not align 1:1 with the games mentioned above and that’s because there isnt a clear cut #1 game which is the best game to stack and rank the players in that way.
QUARTERBACKS
Luke McCaffery, Nebraska (DK: $6,900)
As a home Quarterback against a bad team the brother of CMC, Luke will be front and center in many DFS lineups this weekend. He’s likely going to carry the ball 10+ times against a defense allowing a favorable 4.59 YPC this season. Given that we need to find some value on this slate, his price tag makes him one of the top value plays today.
Dillon Gabriel, UCF (DK: $8,700)
If you are going to spend up this weekend I would prefer to do it with one of the 2 good QB in a competitive game rather than look at options like Lawrence, Fields, Jones, Hooker, etc. Those are all guys in spots they can perform well but for these high prices we need the potential 4th quarter boost. Both Gabriel and Ridder fit that mold.
Others I would consider: Desmond Ridder & Kyle Trask
RUNNING BACKS
Najee Harris, Alabama (DK: $9,300)
Harris is a late addition for me as I was not looking to spend up for multiple RB this week, but I will push him ahead of Jefferson because Kentucky is projected to be without a bulk of their players, including leading tackler Jamin Davis. Kentucky normally wouldn’t be a team we pick on too much but this feels like a big statement 30 point blowout spot for an Alabama team that somehow is just not getting the buzz they deserve despite being the #1 team in the nation.
Gerrid Doaks, Cincinnati (DK: $6,700)
Doaks is a free square in my mind in this UCF game. You can run on UCF and his value along with Alec Pierce get you the exposure you want in this game from the Bearcats side. If for some reason Alec Pierce was ruled out again (I doubt it) then Doaks to me becomes even a stronger play as they likely pass a little less and it becomes the Ridder-Doaks show.
Rakeem Boyd, Arkansas (DK: $5,000)
LSU’s defense can be run on and Boyd is the primary trust worthy option in the Razorbacks backfield. LSU allows nearly 150 yards total on the ground and well over 4 yard per carry which would be above what Boyd is able to average behind a less than awesome Arkansas ground game. Boyd has the majority of the rushing touchdowns on the season for Arkansas despite being in a roughly 33% timeshare touch on all their carries. For $5,000 if he falls into the endzone once vs LSU he’ll pay off.
Contrarian High Priced RB
Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State (DK: $8,900)
Jefferson is getting volume at well over 20+ carries per game and can be considered as an alternate play to Hall, Etienne and Harris. It’s a hard one to stomach given the talent of the other guys and Etienne/Harris looking like smash plays, but we’ve seen low owned contrarian RB’s pay off a lot this season and this feels like one of those Leddie Brown type games where nobody touches the primary workhorse and he finishes over 100 yards with two scores at home.
Others I would consider:
WIDE RECEIVERS
Jordan Addison, Pittsburgh (DK: $4,900)
I’m not sure why Addison isn’t ranking higher on my model but sometimes we have to ignore rankings alone and go with the obvious play. Addison is a very talented receiver who has taken over as the #1 WR role on this Pittsburgh team in 2020. He’s drawn 7 receptions in six of eight games this season with a ceiling of 11 last week against Florida State who has equally a bad defense against the pass as Virginia Tech, his opponent this week. At a sub $5k price whenever you get a receiver who is receiving 25%+ targets, 6+ receptions per game and over 10 yards per catch you just lock them in if the match-up is anywhere near average and in this case, it’s one of the top spots against the #89th ranked passing defense. Whether or not fellow WR Taysir Mack plays doesn’t matter. Lock him in.
Kadarius Toney, Florida (DK: $7,400)
Vanderbilt has a terrible defense, everyone knows this. But in 2019 JaMarr Chase went completely off against them and a few weeks ago we saw Elijah Moore go insane against them as well. What do Chase, Moore and Toney all have in common? They’re all quick and shifty guys who are really hard to cover and get open all over the field. With Kyle Pitts still nursing an injury and OUT for this game it should only boost the TD upside that Toney needs at a price-tag over $7,000. The potential for a blow up game like we’ve seen before is strong, although probably not at the Chase/Moore level, but with the way Trask is playing we’re gonna lock him in as well.
Chris Olave, Ohio State (DK: $7,600)
Wide Receiver will feel very thin in my estimation up top and you won’t see a ton of ownership on the high priced guys. It’s a good week to take a shot on two expensive guys if you can find value you trust at QB and RB. Toney is the top elite play but I really think one of the Ohio State WR will have a solid game and that’s how you get Justin Fields exposure. Olave has always been my preferred choice even though he is second in Target % this season. I expect him to go over 100 yards and score twice
WanDale Robinson, Nebraska (DK: 5,200)
A good pairing with LMC. Robinson should see enough targets to justify his favorable price tag with big play ability too. If you play LMC you should be looking immediately to Robinson to go along with him.
Jaylon Robinson, UCF (DK: $6,500)
You can look under all the couches in your house, check behind the toilets or even look in the attic and you won’t find any metrics or stats to justify using a UCF passing stack against the Cincinnati pass defense which has yielded only 51% completion percentage and majority of the touchdowns they have allowed have been on the ground. So no, I am not gonna feed you some metrics here along those lines other than they haven’t faced an offense with this depth and firepower yet. So with my love for UCF air attack, I gotta be smart and look at the $1800 savings for lineup construction that Robinson brings over Marlon Williams today.
Others I would consider: Treylon Burks (Arkansas), Marlon Williams (UCF), Cornell Powell (Clemson)
Chalk players not mentioned above
QB: Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Mac Jones
RB: None really
WR: DeVonta Smith/John Metchie III (Bama), DJ Johnson (C-C)