Lets do it again! There’s a lot of football again today, eleven games left on the Main DK slate. I really wish this was the weekend of the $555 tournament on DraftKings, but you know what, I’ll just have to go acquire some more satellites to it.
Join me, wont you?
SATURDAYS TOP GAMES
64.0: Maryland at Indiana (-11.5)
54.0: Texas Tech at Oklahoma State (-11)
61.0: Kentucky at Florida (-25.5)
62.5: Auburn at Alabama (-24.5)
55.5: Pittsburgh at Clemson (-24)
69.0: Mississippi State at Ole Miss (-9.5) … Oh dear
55.0: Louisville at Boston College (-1)
TOP GAMES OF THE DAY
CFB is generally very chalky in relation to the over/under projections because there’s good reason for them tied to offenses generally being one dimensional, so the choice on these top games is if you go all in, balance them all out, or fade one and mix in the appropriate one offs.
Favorite Game
Mississippi State at Ole Miss (-9.5)
It’s Ole Miss against a Mike Leach offense and even though half of the best players on Mississippi State have departed, it’s still a spot we gotta consider because nobody on Ole Miss has played much defense this year anyways. Someone find me a Deuce McAllister #22 because the former Rebel is definitely going to be live tweeting this one today.
I know you are like but dude, Elijah Moore is $9,400! I don’t care. Elijah Moore is going to get you 35 fantasy points.
Miss State: Will Rogers (6000), Isirius Mitchell (5100), Joquavious Marks (5100)
Ole Miss: Elijah Moore (9400), Jerrion Ealy (7100)
Sneaky Game
Penn State at Michigan (-2)
This game reminds me of every year when the Falcons and Bucs would meet and both teams are out of the playoffs and we just see a random shootout break out. It’s basically the battle of who is a bigger train wreck of a team this season and my god I love it. Trust me, you do not want to ignore all the other games and strictly run here, but some of you continue to just throw away lineups into the donkey contests or throw multiple lineups out there for fun and so why not jump into the water with me, it’s warm, I swear!
Sean Clifford has been fucking atrocious in 2020 but with Michigan on the slate they’re allowing a nice 274 through the air to opponents and really putting up zero pressure on opposing offenses. Clifford has good rushing upside here and will 100000% connect on a deep bomb to Jahan Dotson on the top of your screen from left to right for 67 yards to make it 21-13 Penn State with just under 9 minutes remaining in the first half. Cue camera 7 to John Harbaugh losing his mind!
Just bet the over here.
Penn State: Sean Clifford (6600), Jahan Dotson (6500)
Michigan: Ronnie Bell (5200)
Logical Plays
- Indiana – Ground game
- Auburn vs Alabama – Mostly 330 Slate stack
MY POSITIONAL RANKINGS
QUARTERBACKS
This is the toughest spot to break down this week. RB and WR are very clear for me, but QB there’s some high upside guys who are obviously priced appropriately that will feel like tough fades.
Will Rogers – Mississippi State ($6,000)
Assuming he gets the start, he’s a mus town and good chalk.
Mac Jones – Alabama ($8,200)
Really like the Iron Bowl for a back and forth high scoring affair and Alabama gets it done through the air.
RUNNING BACKS
Stevie Scott III – Indiana ($5,100)
The Terps have yielded nearly 5 YPC per game this year and over 227 total per game. Drawing an Indiana team that is far better than them and in Indiana they should find themselves often giving up first down runs to Stevie Scott who I project to get the ball well over 20 times like he was before the shootout with the Buckeyes last week. No reason to not play Stevie unless he is the guy who kills Chuba and prevents him from playing too — which would be weird obviously but not as weird as whatever the fuck Eastern Michigan was doing yesterday on the goal line by throwing to a 350 lb lineman.
Chuba Hubbard – Oklahoma State ($6,600)
Chuba took a while to get really going this season and has since fallen off a cliff with only 14 total carries the last two weeks and no 100 yard game since October 24th. It’s been an almost lost year for one of the top perceived Running Backs in the country and if he was still at that $8,900 price range we would likely just move on. But for $6,600 you would have to tell me he is dead for me to not play him.
Joquavious Marks ($5,100) / Dillon Johnson ($5,800) – Mississippi State
Highest paced game on the board but n either guy has taken over as the clear replacement for Kylin Hill. Lots of variance risk but if you want to take a shot they’re both gonna touch the ball for a team who should score in the 30’s.
David Bailey – Boston College ($4,400)
Louisville has mailed it in on the season. Bailey will get a big game today and he’s arguably a top value play. If he falls between his average and the Louisville average he’ll wind up with around 70 yards rushing which is a good floor for someone who is only $4,400 and the lead goal line back.
Also consider: Jerrion Ealy (Ole Miss)
WIDE RECEIVERS
Elijah Moore – Ole Miss ($9,400)
Check out the value at RB and then come back here and tell me why you aren’t able to fit in Moore today? Thanks, next question.
Osirius Mitchell – Mississippi State ($5,100)
Always trust a Senior in a rivalry game. He remains in my mind the most talented WR and when Miss St. has had their higher scoring games this year he has found a way to produce. With the disaster four week stretch behind them this offense has now put up 24 points in back to back weeks and Mitchell hauled in 11 catches during those two games. He’s trending towards a big game today.
John Metchie III – Alabama ($5,200)
The combined score of Alabama’s last two games (against Kentucky and Miss St.) has been 104 to 3. Now, if they were the Atlanta Falcons we’d definitely be fading them today because that just smells like a lead the Falcons would blow. But alas they are not and I’m confident Alabama is putting up points today, but the dip in targets for Metchie in the last two games is entirely due to being in blowout situations — which they should not be in today. It’s a likely scenario he’ll see 6+ targets and Auburn has not been a shutdown defense. Love Metchie this week.
Tutu Atwell – Louisville ($6,100)
With Javian Hawkins gone Atwell remains the lone playmaker the Cardinals have. Boston College is not a stout defense overall so I see Atwell being one of the under the radar WR this week.
Taj Harris – Syracuse ($4,800)
Listen……. He’s got some good things going for him today, ok? He’s at home, which is always a plus for Syracuse. He’s facing NC State who allows 64% completion on the season and a total of 266 yards through the air (plus 170 on the ground, they’re just not good defensively) and he’s sub 5k. Unfortunately Donovan McNabb is not under center for Syracuse so that’s where the good news ends.
Also like a little: Whop Philyor (5200) — has been completely second fiddle to Fryfoglie lately but still someone we should trust. Seth Williams (4500)