With one game canceled due to COVID-19 (Purdue vs Wisconsin), we are down to a thirteen game slate this weekend for the Noon main slate on DraftKings.  I haven’t looked at FanDuel’s slate yet, nor do I plan on looking to see how many games they rolled out as their main slate until probably 11am on Saturday when I say fine I’ll play some horrible contest there too.

On this slate we have the PAC-12 who has decided to join us this fine football season.

Arizona State will visit USC in a Noon Eastern game.  Yes, Noon eastern, which for those of you who are keeping score at home will note that means it is a 9:00 am local kick off time.  That screams shit show from the start to the finish of the game.  We also have Arizona and Utah making their 2020 debut, but that is at 4:00 PM EST.  All other games feature teams who have played, including a good amount of Big Ten teams.

 

TOP TIER GAMES

None.  I do not have a specific game or even a group of games which are clearly above the rest this week and it’s honestly the common theme overall on this weekends slate.  While there are a few studs who look like smash spots, it’s not one where I think we are just auto playing a certain team or game like most other weekends.

 

MID RANGE GAMES

53:  North Carolina (-10.5) at Duke

62:  Minnesota (-7) at Illinois

55:  West Virginia at Texas (-6.5)

63:  Maryland at Penn State (-25)

53:  Florida at Georgia (-3)

61:  Texas Tech at TCU (-9)

55:  Houston at Cincinnati (-13.5)

 

THE PAC 12 BOYS

58:  Arizona State at USC (-11) … game is at 9am local.

59:  Arizona at Utah (-14) — HAS BEEN POSTPONED

 

GAMES THAT I HAVE LITTLE TO NO INTEREST IN

63:  Kansas at Oklahoma (-38)

This is so lopsided for Oklahoma that there will be production whenever a team has a team total like Oklahoma does here, but not a spot to start with

46:  Oklahoma State (-12.5) at Kansas State

There is a play in this game, but just one.

 

Not even bothering to look into these games

54:  Michigan (-3) at Indiana

46:  Michigan State at Iowa (-7)

 

TOP GAMES OF THE DAY

CFB is generally very chalky in relation to the over/under projections because there’s good reason for them tied to offenses generally being one dimensional, so the choice on these top games is if you go all in,  balance them all out, or fade one and mix in the appropriate one offs.

 

Favorite Game

None.  Again, there’s no single game I like the most.

 

Next Best Spots

Texas Tech at TCU (-9)

Both teams should have success moving the ball through the air, which is always a key quality to look at when doing a back and forth gamestack.  The better value is on the Horned Frogs side where Max Duggan at $6,100 to Taye Barber ($5,500) offers arguably the best QB-WR combination for value on this slate.  TCU should move the ball a lot and Duggan will run the ball enough to expect him to score a rushing touchdown in a home game that should have decent scoring in it.  I prefer SaRodorick Thompson on the Texas Tech side, but Ezukanama and Vasher at WR are both likely to see enough targets to warrant using them.

Vasher has not played the last two weeks and has seen his receptions drop from the opening week when he caught 8.  He’s a big gamble but having him back overall should draw coverage away from Ezukanama enough to make him a solid play.

Texas Tech:   Erik Ezukanama, SaRodorick Thompson & Henry Columbi (QB) if you are going 2 QB in this game.

TCU:  Max Duggan, Taye Barber

 

North Carolina (-10.5) at Duke

A road team who has a middle of the road defense but is a favorite just screams upset to me.  Love Duke to move the ball against North Carolina on the ground as the Tar Heels have allowed over 200 yards in three of their last four games and Duke is running it almost 40 times a game and well over 4 yards per carry.  Smash spot for Deon Jackson who is criminally priced at $5,100 in my mind at home here.  He only saw 10 carries last week in a cake walk game against Charlotte because it was a blowout, but in a close game I would not expect him to get less than 15 carries.

The Carolina side runs through Sam Howell and Dyami Brown who continues to dominate Howell’s attention with a 30% target share and just like Davante Adams seems to score every week for the Packers, Brown seems to score every week for the Tar Heels.  However, because he is coming off a massive 11 catch, 240 yard, 3 TD performance last week vs Virginia, you have to assume Duke rolls as much coverage over to him as possible and we likely see a Dazz Newsome big play this week.

UNC:  Sam Howell, Dayami Brown or Dazz Newsome

Duke:  Deon Jackson

 

Sneaky Game

Florida at Georgia (-3)

With there not being a clear cut #1 game at the top, it’s a nice spot to consider going with one full game stack and one to not worry too much about what the Vegas over/under is because one touchdown either way would swing a game into the top tier this week.

I have said all season long that Florida is the closest thing this year to what LSU did last season. They are an offensive machine this season led by Kyle Trask, Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney who has been moved to WR and is now $7,200 which is where he should be finally.  I expect Florida to be extremely low owned in a perceived tough match-up against a really good Georgia defense on the road, but Trask and Pitts should be able to get it done and the Florida defense hasn’t exactly been stopping anyone this season either.  Georgia is a horrible offense due to inconsistent Quarterback play, but if ever there was a spot for George Pickens to have a 2 TD game this is it.

Florida:  Kyle Trask, Kyle Pitts, Kadarius Toney

Georgia:  Zamir White, George Pickens

 

MY POSITIONAL RANKINGS

You will notice that the positional rankings might not align 1:1 with the games mentioned above and that’s because there isnt a clear cut #1 game which is the best game to stack and rank the players in that way.

 

QUARTERBACKS

Sean Clifford (Penn State) … Aliens, riots and COVID-19.  Those are the only three paths I can come up with where Clifford doesn’t hit 27 points this week.  Question is does he get 35?

Max Duggan (TCU) … His rushing upside and 6k price is too good this week.

Sam Howell (UNC) … Howell and Trask are two primarily passing QB that if we didn’t have some rushing upside QB’s ahead of them would be higher ranked for me.

 

VALUE:

Coran Taylor (Illinois) … Here’s “the catch” of the week.  He’s basically a 4th string QB who has a game under his belt and doesn’t have to do much considering he is only $4,500.  If he isn’t the highest owned player this weekend I would be shocked.  There are other ways to win and as we saw with the Clemson QB situation last week, even though the value QB “gets” his, it doesn’t mean they are must owns.

 

RUNNING BACKS

Chuba Hubbard (Oklahoma State) … Hubbard is going to score a touchdown through the air this week and with this being a sub 50 over/under I don’t think anyone is going to have him.  Hubbard has only scored 5 touchdowns this season after scoring 21 last year and got kept out of the end zone for the only time last week.  He’s scoring one on the ground and one through the air this week and will get the usual 100 yard bonus as well.  Do the math.  That’s a pretty safe game in a spot nobody will see it coming.

UPDATE:  Hubbard is way more popular than I expected.  Most likely due to the lack of other options up top at RB.  I still am on him.

Deon Jackson (Duke) … As long as Duke gives him the ball and gives him a block near the goal line, he’ll pay off big time and will do equally as good as all the Oklahoma RB that everyone will be trying to figure out this weekend.

Gerrid Doaks (Cincinnati) … Gets a ton of volume and is a sub 7k home running back which I love.  Cincinnati as a whole should dominate this game and I like them to put up 30 points which bodes extremely well for Doaks

Devyn Ford (Penn State) … Logically it is much safer to play Clifford, but if you need an extra FLEX option he could fit.

 

Also like:

• Mike Epstein (Illinois)
• SaRodorick Thompson (Texas Tech)
• Doaks (Cincinnati)

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Rashod Bateman (Minnesota) … Last season Bateman had to split all the love with Tyler Johnson who is now doing it for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFL.  All Bateman has done in his first two games without Johnson was gain 44% of the targets against some bad defenses.  Now he gets Illinois who isn’t exactly much better defensively at stopping the pass and so even though Minnesota has a desire to run it a ton, they’ll no doubt get the ball to Bateman 8 times this week and he’ll go over 100 yards as a floor.  Play him.

Dyami Brown (North Carolina) … There’s value at QB and value at RB, but more so then that there’s a lack of high floor studs at both positions this week.  So that justifies us looking at two high priced WR in builds who should get 20+ DK points.  Brown is about as consistent as they come right now.

Taye Barber (TCU) … Texas Tech is giving up well over 300 yards per game and while TCU doesn’t throw it a ton, he is priced appropriately at $5,500 and would be a must if you like this game to go over the 61 total.

Kyle Pitts (Florida) & George Pickens (Georgia) … This is the contrarian game for me this weekend and these are the studs to get it done.  Play them together or fade them both.

 

Value WR:

Josh Imatorbhebhe (Illinois) …The 6’2 motorboat’in TE is only $4,200 and should be a solid red zone target in a game that I expect to have good offensive flow to it and wouldn’t be shocked if Illinois even pulled off the upset of the Gophers.  So when he scores that second touchdown it will feel so good to us all, just like motorboatin, right?

Note:  His brother Daniel is also on Illinois.  Make sure you pick the right one.

Pat Friermuth (Penn State) … Keeping with the TE this week I guess.  Penn State will no doubt blow Maryland out coming off two losses, but I project them to spread it around and sub $5,000 for a lock touchdown works here.  While Dotson also makes sense in the passing game, he’s almost twice the cost and likely doesn’t do much in the second half….  Granted he could have 30 at the half if Sean Clifford forces it there, but I’d take the value in Friermuth instead.

Sam James (WVU) … They love to get him the ball and Texas is a big pace up spot, so I like his touch volume this week.

 

 

CORE BUILD

Sean Clifford AND/OR Max Duggan – QB – TCU

Chuba Hubbard – RB – Ok. St

Rashod Bateman – WR – Minnesota

Taye Barber – WR – TCU

 

Lineup Construction Thought …

Decide on your value at QB/RB.  If Taylor starts for Illinois at QB then Duggan-Taylor QB-SFLEX combination is likely extremely popular and makes plenty of sense because you’re really just fading Clifford and a likely low owned Sam Ehlinger as far as QB who can go off.

The other option then is of the cheaper RB2 options which one or multiple ones do you potentially roll with.  All in all, I am leaning towards saying go with 2 stud WR this week and get the value at QB and RB2.

 

FADES:

• Pac 12 games.  One at 9am is an easy fade and the other one there is a lot of questions around who takes over the volume for Utah and with it being the first game on a 13 game slate, I can get points safely elsewhere and fade the late 4PM game.
• Always fade Michigan teams.  They suck.