I don’t think there is a ton for me to break down in terms of lessons learned or DFS teaching points at this part of the season. As I mentioned last week, teams are who they are at this point and the thing I keep coming back to with this week is that teams who are heavy underdogs are likely heavy underdogs for a reason. The Jets are not going to walk into LA and beat the Rams on a second straight road game across country. The Cowboys are underdogs at home to the bad 49ers for a reason. And while it would be cool for DFS purposes to see close games in Tennessee and Baltimore, it’s just not likely that Chase Daniel and Gardner Minshew lead upsets this deep into the season.
So sit back and enjoy some holiday season football games and lets go win some money.
WEATHER
Cold and rainy in Washington and Baltimore, but nothing that looks too troublesome.
INJURIES TO MONITOR
- DeForrest Buckner (IND) – We don’t always list a defensive player but this one is huge. If he is out the Texans ground game can be trusted.
- Raheem Moestert (SF) – Looks good to go.
DFS OWNERSHIP
The Chiefs/Saints game will likely be owned in some way by almost every lineup but I don’t think many will wind up game stacking it because of some high prices. But there’s loads of value in this game which I did outline at WR below. Meanwhile the chalk appears to be at RB this week.
Here’s who lines up as the highest owned plays.
- QB: Hurts, Mahomes, Murray, Goff
- RB: Kamara, Henry, Fournette, Taylor
- WR: Aiyuk, Hilton, Hill, Sanders, Hopkins
- TE: Kelce
- DEF: Rams
AK41 GAME
As the fantasy gaming industry evolves I would love to see a DFS format where you can lock in the value of a specific player well ahead of Sunday morning. For example, if you could have bought stock in Alvin Kamara for this game on Monday ahead of the Drew Brees and Michael Thomas news then you probably would have gotten great value in him. A format where maybe salary cap doesn’t matter but you get a multiplier like the Captain Spot on Showdown slates and it adjusts over time much like a stock would. I say this because as of Monday nobody else was going to be rushing to lock in Alvin Kamara as a must own but it’s been well known Drew Brees was going to be back for this game and with that comes more sustained drives for the Saints on offense and more reception opportunities for Alvin Kamara. Then the big news broke on Friday which ruled Michael Thomas out for this AFC-NFC game of the week showdown and thus we have to like Kamara even more as he dominated in games Thomas missed earlier this season.
Alvin had a bit of a foot injury that was bothering him combined with a stretch of three games that just completely went against any need to use him and so the Saints didn’t overload him too much for a while and we have seen his price drop down about $2,000 on all sites from where it should be given all the circumstances of this game. The Chiefs have long been a team that gets attacked with pass catching RB and Kamara has feasted on teams whose weakness is at the LB level which is probably the best spot to attack Kansas City. A scenario where Kamara gets under 30 fantasy points is unlikely but a scenario where he gets under 20 fantasy points is extremely unlikely. Expect Kamara’s ownership to go way up due to the Thomas OUT news but there’s not another person I would plug in ahead of Kamara this weekend.
GET GODWIN GOING
It’s time for a major get right game for Chris Godwin. In the last two meetings against the Atlanta Falcons, Godwin has hauled in 13 of 17 targets for 288 yards and four touchdowns. And with him continuing to line up in the slot a ton he should continue to carve up the Falcons secondary. I have been educating everyone all season long that the bigger physical WR usually do well against Atlanta because they have no size to match-up on them in critical spots and Mike Evans taking a vulture touchdown obviously makes a ton of sense, but Tom Brady should have all day to pass and one thing we know about Brady is that he is fully aware of who on his team needs to be kept involved week to week. Godwin saw a season low 3 targets as the Bucs were dominated in time of possession last week running only 51 snaps as a team. This is an easy spot for the Bucs to come out and establish control via the passing game against a weak Falcons secondary and Godwin should be well on his way to having a good game of 7 catches and his first 100 yard receiving game of the season.
ELEMENTARY MY DEAR WATSON
Something I find myself always drifting towards is jumping on a good player who had disappointed the prior week when everyone else but me was on him. Watson’s been a chalky “safe” QB for many this season but he fell off my radar as soon as Will Fuller was ruled out — yet the Texans skill position players have become very chalky due to a perceived value the last two weeks against the Colts and Bears. Now the Texans are being ignored and I think this is a fantastic spot for a Houston upset as they will battle Indianapolis for the second time in three weeks and the first game went UNDER in a 26-20 Colts win. That game was the first time Watson had failed to complete a TD pass vs the Colts and it also featured the return of Colts DT DeForest Buckner who is now back on the injury list and potentially could miss this game. Watson is expected to have Brandin Cooks back in the line-up after missing last week and has averaged 9 yards per attempt against the Colts in their last three meetings. I know Watson has lost some talent on the outside since then but I still expect Houston to come out strong in this game and give the Colts a giant divisional scare. Watson, Duke Johnson, Brandin Cooks will make up a nice contrarian Texan stack.
BIG MAN KELCE
There’s only one reason to not like Kelce in DFS this week and I’ll cover it below in the full Tight End breakdown. But lets look at Kelce as if we are rostering him into the FLEX position this weekend and with that consideration in mind there’s really no debate on if he should be played or not. New Orleans three four methods to slowing down Tyreek Hill in this spot. They can opt to play man defense with Lattimore on him and getting bracket coverage from Marcus Williams which will just end poorly. They can opt to go into a zone single high look which will just funnel 20 passes underneath to Travis Kelce (what I expect) or they can send some spiced up room service to Tyreek’s hotel room and hope that he ends up having to pull a Lamar Jackson during the game. I think it’s safe to say that the zone coverage is going to be their best course of action throughout this game for over 50% of the snaps. But in the event that the Saints play straight up we’re going to see a similar miss-match as Week 2 when Darren Waller feasted on New Orleans safety’s. The Saints are very good against the TE position when they can throw one of their LB in coverage situations, but I don’t expect them to be able to do that a lot in this game and so we’re going to see big Kelce getting some 1:1 spots that he always wins due to his size. If there’s one Chief we gotta love this week, I believe it is Kelce.
THE WEEK 15 FADES
There’s quite a few spots this week that I have crossed off almost entirely (outside of D/ST) and here are the reasons why.
- Chicago at Minnesota — If you think Trubisky is going to have another good week then I have a bridge to sell you. The Vikings defense is playing better and they’re going to win the time of possession battle with slow, methodical Dalvin Cook drives.
- New England at Miami — We have Belichek against a rookie QB and New England’s crappy offense on their third straight road game vs a stout Miami Defense. Nothing to like here. Nothing.
- Detroit at Tennessee — Im not paying for Henry at home and Detroit won’t do anything without Stafford and Golladay.
- NY Jets at LA Rams — Rams have a HUGE game against the Seahawks last week. This game should be over in about 15 minutes.
- Jacksonville at Baltimore — Passing on the Ravens ground game is tough but I have plenty of other spots I trust more. This is the toughest of the fades for me.
QUARTERBACKS
Kyler Murray
Kyler is slowly starting to run the ball more again and I’m willing to dip the toes in the water on this being the game he gets back to rushing one in around the goal line. If Darius Slay is out for the Eagles then Kyler should be able to get Hopkins over 100 yards without any issues and throw in some rushing upside (not a ton, still temper expectations here) then we should get a good outing from Kyler Murray who has seen his price drop as he becomes a passing only QB.
Drew Christopher Brees
Brees has missed games due to injury twice in his Saints career. Obviously he missed five games last season and he also missed one game back in 2015. In the first game back after injury the always over prepared Brees in two home games went 33-41, 359, 2 TD and 34-43, 373, 3 TD. Doubting him as being rusty? Failure. Doubting him without Michael Thomas? Understandable. One cannot overlook that no Mike Thomas is a bit of a decline for the Saints, but this might be the finest performance the Saints offensive line has all season long. They have been highlighted for poor play of late and with Brees returning I expect their best performance in a long time which is going to wind up with Brees finding a way statistically do what he has done his entire career. Complete 75% of his passes, throw for 2+ touchdowns and push 300 yards total passing. Brees was never going to miss the chance to play against Mahomes and Brees never disappoints in these big games against other well known Quarterbacks. If you don’t believe me, go look up his numbers in games historically against Brady, Rodgers, Manning, Roethlisberger. The guy shows up in these show me games.
DeShaun Watson
Outlined my love for Houston above and this is certainly a very contrarian spot that hinges 100% on Brandin Cooks being in the game. But one thing we get for certain with Watson is a guy who is going to compete and will air it out as he has been a consistent 30 attempt 300 yard machine all season long.
Just missed the cut: Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, Patrick Mahomes (If not for his price he would be in the mix, but he’s gotta throw for 5 TD and if he is throwing 5 TD then I assure you Breesus is throwing atleast 4 himself)
Not touching: Jared Goff, Jalen Hurts
RUNNING BACKS
Alvin Kamara
30 point outing likely from Kamara this week. Next question.
Raheem Mostert
The 49ers as a team are going to rush for 300 yards on the Dallas Cowboys. San Francisco’s run scheme should be able to do exactly what the Cleveland Browns did on the ground to Dallas in week four when they yeilded 307 yards on the ground. Things haven’t gotten much better for Dallas defensively as they gave up 294 on the ground just two weeks ago to Baltimore and with San Francisco down Deebo Samuel there’s no reason they won’t just pound Mostert, Wilson, McKinnon and who knows maybe Tevin Coleman finally gets back in the rotation again this week. What I just outlined is the only concern with rostering Mostert and that is the 49ers utilizing too many different backs but the home run ability that Mostert has leaps out as a guy who can bust off 120 yards rushing and two big touchdown runs at 3% ownership. Someone is winning a million dollars with minimum one San Francisco RB this weekend.
J.K. Dobbins
A popular play is going to be Jonathan Taylor coming off his best game as a pro vs Houston. Equally in a great spot though is JK Dobbins at home vs Jacksonville who has been smashed on the ground all season long. Baltimore’s coming off that huge game on Monday night and will have some wet conditions which means get this game over with quickly and do it with the ground game. We’ve waited for the Dobbins breakout game and what better spot than vs a bad Jags rush D.
Just missed the cut: David Johnson, Dalvin Cook
Not touching — Too Expensive: Derrick Henry
Not touching — Don’t like: Leonard Fournette, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers
WIDE RECEIVERS
Chris Godwin
Godwin is my #1 WR this weekend for the reasons mentioned in The Ambush plays.
Terry McLaurin
Scary Terry gets the benefit of fellow Ohio State alum Dewayne Haskins back under center. Haskins has been terrible at QB but he has done one thing well and that is finding the #1 WR for Washington. McLaurin gets a soft Seattle secondary to return to the elite level of WR tier that he had for the first few weeks of the season when Haskins was under center and made him an elite target.
FAVORITE STAR WR
DeAndre Hopkins
I talked last week about Hopkins was finally coming out of lock down CB prison and this week he is finally free of any concern now that Darius Slay has been ruled out for Philadelphia. If Hopkins does not see 15 targets then just fire the entire coaching staff right on the spot and send Kyler off to the Athletics to play Baseball.
TWO TO PAIR TOGETHER
Brandin Cooks – HOU
One of the chalkiest plays two weeks ago that didn’t really come through, the oft injured Brandin Cooks is clear to go this week against the Colts once again and with Watson throwing it over 30 times he figures to be in line for a potential 100 yard receiving game. Love these two paired together on 1PM only stack lineups.
Michael Pittman Jr – IND
If you had told me two years ago that I would be sitting here jocking someone besides T.Y. Hilton for the Colts against the Texans two out of three weeks I would have laughed at you. And yes, I like TY Hilton always against Houston who he has owned but the Pittman game is still grading out as worthy of mentioning since I love this game to go over.
VALUE WR
Emmanuel Sanders, Tre’Quan Smith – NO
Pricing is driving this more than just Michael Thomas being out. Tre’Quan has actually quietly had a very nice third season and has stepped up each time he has been called upon, but it’s Sanders who really catches my eye this week. His biggest game this year was in a spot the Saints were forced into a shootout without Thomas at home vs the Chargers. In that spot, Manny saw 12 catches on 14 targets with Brees under center and was really developing a strong chemistry before Brees went down after Sanders had returned from a two week COVID break. I expect him to lead the Saints in receptions and at $4,200 is an insane value.
Mecole Hardman – KC: His snap rate has dropped to about 33% of the plays with Sammy Watkins back. But Tyreek/Kelce will get the focus from New Orleans and Watkins is an easy cover for the Saints. Mecole though? His speed should break free for a 60 yard touchdown.
Just missed the cut: DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett, AJ Brown
Not touching: Mike Evans (I’m all in on Godwin), Brandon Aiyuk (All in on the ground game), Rams WR (All in on this game being called at the half)
TIGHT ENDS
Travis Kelce
Kelce will be a pain in the side for the Saints who have been great against TE’s since the first quarter of the season. But this week they’ll be stressed heavily in the vertical passing game and Kelce should have a high catch game.
Jared Cook
Alright, so I mentioned above that Kelce basically when evaluated by himself is an elite play. But then we have to consider the major drop off on pricing on DraftKings this week and one of the many guys who can get a boost with Brees back and Thomas out is going to be Jared Cook. He should be closer to $5,000 but is only $3,700 and with DK continuing to be a stud and dud site for roster construction we’re essentially considering him as a low end WR in this game. Any non DraftKings DFS site this week the play is Kelce. But on DK this is a value spot.
Hayden Hurst
Also a value play at only $3,300 with Julio Jones out he see’s more targets & Tampa is still a funnel to the TE position defensively.
Just missed the cut: Nobody, play Kelce…
Not touching: Who else is there to consider???
DEFENSES
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota’s doing a good job of using their control the clock formula and that’s their method usually against the Bears. This is a defense playing a little better who can get some sacks at home and keep this game low scoring for a nice value.
LA Rams
Let me know how the Jets are going to score this week? You can’t really pass on the Rams and the Jets sure as heck aren’t in a good spot with back to back west coast trips here. There’s literally no reason to not like the Rams besides forgetting that the game is being played this week.
Seattle Seahawks
DeWayne Haskins is a walking sack and turnover machine.
THE AMBUSH Q&A
QUESTION: Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it AJ Brown?
Without Matthew Stafford cleared and no Kenny Golladay the Detroit Lions seemingly have no way to keep up with the Titans. But lets not forget that Tennessee is pretty much playing in games that go OVER every single week. Derrick Henry is likely a chalky play this week but I outlined already how we want him on the road more than at home. If Tennessee is once again going to post a 30+ or 40+ burger then it’s going to have to be Tannehill and if its’ Tannehill doing it then we assume AJ Brown has another big catch and run vs a bad Lions secondary, no? To me this is a stack the Titans and move on spot or just fade it all together since the Lions likely won’t do much on their end.
Here’s some other TEAM only stacks that I would play on secondary lineups
- Tennessee: Tannehill, Brown, Davis or go wild with someone like Khalif Raymond
- Tampa Bay: Tom Brady once trailed the Falcons 28-3 in the Super Bowl and still managed to win. He’s winning again this week. Brady-Godwin-Brown
- Houston: Watson-Cooks-D.Johnson, but the Colts can run it back easily with Hilton or Pittman.
QUESTION: Random off the wall prediction?
The Jets plane has a “mechanical issue” and they just forfeit the game. Ok, no, in all seriousness. Four players throw touchdown passes in the Chiefs-Saints game and it sends all the Brees lineups I have into tilt.
QUESTION: Favorite 1PM and 4PM only stacks and plays?
1PM only: Houston and Tennessee.
4PM only: New Orleans and KC.
QUESTION: What’s the game you do not have a lot of players in which scares you to go off?
Seattle at Washington
QUESTION: Favorite Bets of the week?
Miami -1.5
New Orleans +3
Minnesota -3