Hockey DFS is returning as the NHL is going to kick off a season which will resemble what MLB did last year during a pandemic as we have inter-divisional play dominating the schedule due to the NHL wanting to not just limit impacts that canceling games has but more so because the Canadien teams are restricted heavily from travel in and out of the country.
So with this said, there will be a lot of repeat matchups throughout the season which is going to be a big factor on games but also lots of back to back contests where the same two teams play back to back nights or atleast back to back games without facing another opponent in between. Historically I have been one who uses these situations to go opposite of what happened (high scoring/low scoring, etc.) of the previous game but I’ll be cautious to not blindly drink from that narrative fountain this season.
So as we embark on a new season, there are a few things which I have used in the past to have high end success in NHL DFS.
Correlation is King
Both DraftKings and FanDuel have adjusted their scoring and lineup construction over the years and DraftKings leans heavier on rewarding for goals and shots where as FanDuel rewards more for correlating the full Goal+Assists on events but no matter what site you prefer, correlation remains king. Simply put in hockey the first thing everyone look to identify is forward and power play line combinations to determine what they want to center their lineup around. I do not consider this stacking as I’ll dive into what I truly consider a stack down below, but you can obviously use this as a starting point for a full stack if you want. The idea being that when a goal is scored we generally have one if not two assists associated and the probabilities of it coming from one of the linemates is definitely increased assuming the lines pairings aren’t changing often during the game. But more so than just forcing a correlation of Center/Wing/Wing I do put a ton of faith into pairing a defenseman with two of my skaters as well based upon the pricing of all involved players.
Studs and Duds
This has become a much more common approach on DraftKings starting last season when they changed their scoring to reward more bonuses for SOG, BS and for getting 3 points in a game. With this, we see players like Alex Ovechkin essentially have an insane ceiling because of his high SOG rate and an obvious elite goal scoring upside. So throw in all the bonuses and all of the sudden you have one off players that can easily justify playing them “naked” without any other linemates or no matter what their price is forcing them in. There will be many a night when I roll out a stud and dud approach which can be paying $8000 for a skater and then finding the top sub 4k skater or cheap defenseman who is projected to get a ton of ice time.
Stacking
Five players from one game no matter what their lines. That is a stack for me. Given that I would be using 5 from a single team it’s a no brainer to have atleast one correlation in there if not a full line correlation, but more so I am looking for this team to score 5+ goals and to get all the goals or a heavy amount of shots in a spot where one team should control the pace and flow of the game. This is often best used to find a chalky or popular team and go all in with them where as others will try to go a balanced lineup approach.
Those are essentially the general rules I use when building. I highly recommend looking at building a balanced lineup for new players and using two C&W correlations to start your build. Usually it’s a five step process to construct a single entry lineup.
- Determine the C&W That you want to lock in which is generally a combination that has a mid range or value play. I prefer to find value plays first so it tells me how high up I can spend for one offs.
- Identify your second C&W combination, usually this is going to be a more chalky or “higher $” combination if you went value on the top one.
- Pair the best defenseman from either step 1 or step 2 to give you a 3 man build.
- Identify if there is more value as a one off Winger or one off Defenseman, but do not plug them in yet, plug in your Goalie first then plug the best value W/D in.
- Spin the wheel (i.e. This is your utility position and where you should look to find a one off or plug in a correlation with the plays above).
The Manifesto
- One D-man from a team is a soft rule but more of a preference than anything else. This rule never applies to the Predators.
- I prefer second lines on the road and first/dominant lines at home for most teams.
- If you play a one off value winger, make him from a home team (but stack the stud lines at home).
- Teams playing their third game in four nights generally are bad spots to use.
- Never Penguins, unless Crosby is facing Florida — which he wont be this year. So never Sid.
- All Ovi cold streaks end with a hat trick. Fade at your peril.
- Defenseman vs Florida and Minnesota.
- Devan Dubnyk sucks in Colorado. Bad.
- Saturday night Columbus Cannons. The best.
- Tortarella line adjustments three minutes into a game to prove a point. The worst.
- Friends dont let friends stack the Penguins.
- When Provorv scores, Konecny scores and when Konecny scores, Provorov has a good game. Its science.
- We can all agree that what America needs right now is T.J. Oshie, a real American Hero
- If there is a live final I can assure you I will stack the Dallas Stars.
- Winnipeg owns Sunday evening home games.
- You do not play Juuse Saros on multiple days rest but you lock him in on a B2B when he did not start the night before.
- All goalies will post negative scores. Especially the ones you never roster but decide to play after they have posted 8 straight 20 point games.
- If the Minnesota Wild are your favorite team, run away, they’ll score about 8 goals and you’ll have none of them.
- Is there a Super Deke on Fanduel? If yes – Nino Niederreiter is the play. If no – why would you ever play Nino Niederreiter?
- The Detroit Red Wings are probably one of the worst teams in the league, but they continue to dominate the Nashville Predators
- I have won five figures stacking Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov more than any other combination. Unfortunately, Kuch is dead this year.
- #AlwaysFadeBurns and #AlwaysPlay420 (Thats Colorado)
- Nobody is more of a closet Carey Price lover than Rob Geriak. It’s quite disturbing
- If $VegasHomeGame = Mid Afternoon game; then $result = VegasByAMillion
- If you have no PMR after 10PM and there’s a non Ducks/Kings game remaining then you are in big trouble.
- The best high upside contrarian goalie is whoever is starting for the Leafs when they are struggling.
- More like Suucka Rask am I right?
- Death. Taxes. Josh Bailey against the Capitals.
- Death. Taxes. Your Islanders stack will score a goal 5 minutes into the game and then do NOTHING the rest of the game.
- Death. Taxes. Jack Eichel doesn’t win tournaments.