Just your typical random Tuesday in January with a whopping 13 NHL games. The fine viewing of tonight’s lucky slate includes five games in the early 7pm window, four games in the express 8pm window and for those of you keeping score at home, four games on the late 9pm window. I must say, it is nice to have the west coast games starting at 9pm Eastern tonight for us old folks who do not want to have to toss and turn all night while we sweat out some 23% owned Golden Knight getting an ENG with 3 seconds remaining.
Scoring seems up so far this year and we have seven games tonight that are in the 6 or higher over/under window.
Tuesday, January 26th
STACKS
NASHVILLE PREDATORS
Ryan Johansen – Filip Forsberg – Viktor Arvidsson
Let’s check off some boxes here. Have the Predators been pretty bad so far? Yes. Have the Chicago Blackhawks been absoutely worse? Yes. Do the Predators have a good history of beating up on Chicago? Yes.
Is it a Tuesday, which means Filip Forsberg is going to score twice? Yes.
Are all Carrie Underwood GIFs apporpriate? Yes.
Alrighty then. End of analysis.
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS
William Karlsson – Jonathan Marchessault – Reilly Smith
The lineup construction for tonight could not be any clearer to me. Load up on a full line stack which is underpriced and then pair it with some core studs who are in very favorable spots. A perfect example would be VGK2 as the whole line together is under $5k each, two of them are on PP2 (Marchessault/Smith) while Wild Bill skates on the top PP unit. Fear not though because they will get enough ice time and the St. Louis defense just has not been the same this year. I’ve capitalized on that twice already with some big games from opposing centers and this is another spot to jump on that bandwagon before everyone else catches on.
NY ISLANDERS
Brock Nelson – Josh Bailey – Nick Leddy
A much deeper dive on the value stacks would be the NY Islanders. They’ve dominated Washington and will get a short handed Caps squad tonight as they are still without key guys due to COVID-19 protocols. A big loss for the Caps in this game is Kuznetsov being out and the Islanders are going to wear down the Caps with their speed which will lead to the Nelson-Bailey line getting some favorable match-ups in this one and Josh Bailey is going to do what Josh Bailey does.
Score against Washington.
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS
The Devils penalty kill isn’t close to spectacular and when they’re struggling they take too many penalties. So this benefits what looks like a nice value PP1 unit on the Flyers side and while you can also roll out Nolan Patrick, I would prefer to have the Captain Claude Giroux on this stack.
Claude Giroux – Travis Konecny – Ivan Provorov
POSITIONAL ONE OFFS
These are plays not mentioned as part of the stacks above.
Jack Eichel (BUF) – $7,600
We are nearly two weeks into the NHL regular season and Jack Eichel has yet to register a regulation or overtime goal. He managed to net the GWG technically as he got the lone shootout goal on Sunday when I said to bet his goal prop. So this little fucker owes us and his due rating could not be any higher right now, plus he draws the NY Rangers who haven’t exactly been a stone wall defensively this year. Both these teams are struggling compared to expectations but should get right against each other today. You’ll want pieces of either Eichel or Zibanejad and for me I’ll take 7600 Jack on the rocks although a 6600 price for Mika isn’t bad either.
Other top centers:
- Connor McDavid Does Not Suck Dot Com
- Mika Zibanejad
- Sean Monahan
- Claude Giroux … It’s not often you get to roster two centers on the same line + same power play unit AND you get to pair them with Travis Konecny. But we have that with the Giroux/Patrick/Konecny line which is dirt cheap & oh yeah, they’re with Provorov too on PP1… Giroux ranks near the top among skaters who have been “unlucky” so far this season right behind Jack Eichel.
- J.T. Compher … Just an other value play
Filip Forsberg (NSH) – $4,000
One constant through all the years has been Forsberg on Tuesday nights. But in all seriousness, he’s been a steady scorer so far for the Preds this year and a lone bright spot. Nashville is getting a get right matchup with Chicago’s terrible defense and with the Hawks coming off what was a respectable win on Sunday they’re likely going to get shredded by the Preds tonight.
Other top wings:
- Gabriel Landeskog – Hard to ignore the entire Avs top line, but all 3 combined are too pricey.
- Johnny Gaudreau – Calgary will win today.
- Cam Atkinson – Remains the best PT/$ play every night. But he’s seemed to hit a ceiling a lot and thus is more of just a baseline cash play.
- Josh Bailey
- Travis Konecny
Zack Werenski – $4,700 & Seth Jones (CBJ) – $4,300
I’m sorry, did someone say Defenseman vs Florida? Welcome to the Werenski vs Seth Jones tilt fest everyone. Common sense says go with the better player (Jones) who is a favorable price and will be on the top power play unit.
However it has been Werenski who has really thrived against Florida with 4 goals in his last two games versus them. The trend that keeps on running should be off and doing well once again this season even with Florida playing a slightly better defensive style than history shows.
This is a stout slate for defenseman which is another reason why I do not want to force a high priced stack and wind up punting the defense position because you won’t win jack shit tonight without production from your blue-liners. So take the cake and eat it with some Blue Jackets D-men
Other top defenseman:
- John Klingberg … My Model loves Klingberg more than I love posting GIFs and seeing as Dallas gets Detroit tonight I can understand why.
- Ivan Provorov
- Kris Letang
- Ryan Ellis
- Drew Doughty … What year is it? Drew Doughty is 6400? Wow.
- Josh Morrissey
- Alex Pieterangelo … For the narrative crowd, facing his old team.
GOALIES
Well shoot, there’s nothing worse than absolutely loving your skater recommendations and then remembering that we are required by the laws of DraftKings and FanDuel to roster a player who is considered a “Goalie”. So naturally, let’s look first at the games where I didn’t have any skater desire and determine if there is a nice little “safe” play (LOL, there aint no such thing as a safe play for goalies. It’s either a 25 or a -7, but hey, let’s try to find that 14).
Kings vs Wild … I would lean on Kahkonen but honestly until I see the Wild and Kings both start reeling off some unders I would stay the hell away. I only am avoiding this for DFS purposes because none of the line combinations look great here since they just played two last week.
Ducks vs Coyotes … Likely a chalky spot with Gibson and the Ducks coming off the upset of the Avs on Sunday and the Coyotes/Kuemper being the heavy favorite we will see lots of logical consideration for both. Here’s how I feel about that.
Okay, so lets whip out something better, shall we?
- Connor Helleybuck … For some reason he was given Sunday off. This means we get super Helley tonight. Jets win.
- Semyon Varlamov
Both of those are fine and all, but have I introduced you to the late night hammer? West coast goalies. Gentlemen. Goalies are like Gremlins, cute and all but if you have them going after midnight and you are asleep then you’ll get a -12. Luckily for us, the Flames game tonight begins at 9PM EST, so we are ALL SET! Drink your coffee and stay up late to watch, the one and only …
Jacob Markstrom – CGY – $7,700
Shut down the Maple Leafs 4-1 tonight.
SLAP … SHOTS!
LINE LOCK OF THE NIGHT: JOFA … Johansen / Forsberg / Arvidsson (Predators)
BONUS LINE LOCK OF THE NIGHT: Patrick – Giroux – Konecny – Provorov (Flyers)
ONE OFF STUD: Jack Eichel (Sabres)
CONTRARIAN ONE OFF: The Captain – Claude Giroux (Flyers)
ONE OFF VALUE WINGER: Josh Bailey (Islanders)
TOP DEFENSE-MAN: Jones/Werenski (Blue Jackets) and John Klingberg (Stars)
GPP FADE TEAM OF THE NIGHT: Maple Leafs
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION: Value Stacks (NSH1, VGK2, PHI3, NYI2) and then stud one offs.
FAVORITE BETS:
- Over/Unders:
- Hawks/Preds O6
- Ducks/Coyotes O5.5
- Blues/Knights O6
- Sabres/Rangers O6.5
- Puck Line: Knights -1.5
- ML Parlay: Flyers ML / Knights ML / Flames ML
- Player Points Prop: Jack Eichel to score +123, Jack Eichel 2+ Points +175
- Goal Scorer Prop (Longshot): Josh Bailey to score first +1800. Throw a little bit of those Bo Horvat winnings on this one today.