Wednesday’s opening night was more about how I built versus who I built with. I decided to pay up for the Center position and that was the big drag on the lineup. Otherwise it was a great start for the LINE LOCK portion and the OVER hit as well, so we had that going for us I guess.
I do encourage anyone who is following along with the OVER/UNDER bet each night to consider doing player props on the line lock guys for total points. Ideally if you can get OVER 1.5 for whoever I pick there I would take it.
Thursday is a big ten slate and I noticed on the NHL schedule this year there are far fewer 2 and 3 game slates which is very nice. I suspect I will continue to have the most success as a single lineup player on the slates which are 4-7 games and on these larger ones rolling out up to 5 lineups is usually advised.
One game is PPD tonight due to COVID-19 (Dallas vs Florida)
Thursday, January 14th
STACKS
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS
William Karlsson – Jonathan Marchessault – Reilly Smith
I would say that 95 times out of 100 if I want to full stack the Knights and you tell me that I have to pick between the Wild Bill William Karlsson line or a Chandler Stephenson line, I’m gonna say the Karlsson line. Obviously this means we’re not getting Pacioretty or Stone if we’re just stacking full strength line, but on a 4 or 5 man stack spot I would throw them in as well.
Correlate with: Nobody from Anaheim, but add a 4th Knight (Stone) or add a defenseman (Theodore/Pietrangelo)
WINNIPEG JETS
Paul Stastny – Patrik Laine – Neal Pionk (D)
The prices on these three are too cheap. Winnipeg was very up & down last year and struggled in games with the Flames. The addition of Stastny however should help them out. This is mostly getting exposure to Laine and Pionk and correlating them with Stastny as well.
Correlate With: Johnny Gaudreau
NASHVILLE PREDATORS
RYan Johansen – Viktor Arvidsson – Filip Forsbert (JOFA!)
Like riding a bike, the JOFA line is back together and draws Columbus who usually keeps the opponents from firing a bunch of shots — so when we attack the Blue Jackets we want to do it with full line correlations that don’t cost a lot. That’s the case here with the Preds top line who will also skate together on PP1.
Correlate With: Cam Atkinson
POSITIONAL ONE OFFS
CENTERS
Sebastian Aho (CAR) … I suspect this is a popula game for stacking tonight. The Red Wings are an easy target on most slates and they were horrific against centers last season. Aho is one of the top scoring center men on the slate.
Connor McDvaid (EDM) … McDavid does not go two nights in a row without a point very often.
Jack Eichel (BUF) … I don’t expect the Capitals defense to be very good this year.
Wings
Cam Atkinson (CLS) … You’re getting a guy who averaged 5 SOG per game last season for $4,400. On the SOG bonus alone he should have a solid game for this price and so long as DK has him under $5k just lock him in and for more upside pair him with Max Domi and Seth Jones.
Taylor Hall (BUF) … The Taylor Hall show continues this year now in Buffalo and he’s going to destroy Washington tonight.
Defense
Adam Fox (NYR) … Had 33 assists last year of which he was primary on over 60% of them. The Islanders statistically were a decent target for assists from D-Men.
Jacob Slavin (CAR)
Erik Karlsson (SJS)
Neal Pionk (WPG)
Drew Doughty (LAK)
TOP VALUE PLAYS
Nils Hoglander (VAN) … Another great value play today.
Zach Parise (MIN)
Andreas Athanasiou (LAK)
GOALIES
Mackenzie Blackwood (Devils)
Connor Hellebuyck (Jets)
Martin Jones (Sharks)
SLAP … SHOTS!
LINE LOCK OF THE NIGHT: Stastny – Laine – Connor (Winnipeg Jets)
ONE OFF STUD WINGER: Taylor Hall (Sabres)
ONE OFF VALUE WINGER: Cam Atkinson (Columbus)
TOP DEFENSEMAN: Erik Karlsson (Sharks)
GPP FADE TEAM OF THE NIGHT: Bruins, Rangers, Capitals
FAVORITE BETS:
- Flames / Jets OVER 5.5
- Caps / Sabres OVER 6