I have not made my way into the content and picks giving business for College Basketball over the years because it truly is a sport that requires you to be on top of injury and playing time status during the regular season and I am not one who was able to have the time to provide that level of detail. However, we are deep into the season where news is being reported much better and with the new platform here I can have more time to share with you my CBB strategy.
My strategy is I trust my model.
Thanks for coming, have a nice day.
No, seriously. I have put a shit ton of time and effort into the model and I will challenge anyone out there to find a better resource for CBB and it’s only getting better by the day. It takes into account the players projection, current usage, usage in split situations, match-up strength and weakness, pace difference and many other statistical factors to come up with my own rating system and it has been rock solid all year long. CBB is a small niche sport in the lobbies and FanDuel has completely ignored their product forever, so it’s DraftKings only and you’ll have to lock up your reservations early — but if you want some good sweats during March Madness, here’s what you do.
Open the CBB Dashboard. One thing I love to do is stack games with 3-4 players in it and I never use more than two players from a single team.
Tempo matters the most. The games with the highest combined tempo rating are going to highlight in green at the top of the dashboard and often times you will find that a high tempo game has a high over/under so do not be afraid of getting exposure on games with high totals. But the other thing to check into are games which should be highly contested as tempo is one thing, but quality of possessions is another.
I also try to avoid forcing in the 8k and up guys when there are plenty of 5500 to 7000 players. This is the sweet spot. If you can get a 30 from all 8 players you are going to have an awesome night and it’s easier for a $6k guy to get to 30 than it is to hope a 4500 guy gets 20 and a 8000 player gets his 40. Obviously when stacking from one team you’ll be better off not stacking two $8k guys together because it’s hard for both to hit ceiling in the same game.
For, March 12th here are the core plays I am looking at.
Early Slate – 11:30 EST Lock – Five games
Mississippi State vs Alabama:
Alabama is one of the fastest paced teams in the country and one of my favorite teams to get exposure from every time they play. Miss St is the exact opposite in pace, so the Bulldogs (Miss St) side is where we get a major pace boost and should have better value in general, but I wouldn’t shy away from Bama’s core guys (Petty/Herb Jones).
- Tolu Smith and Abdul Adu are the bigs for Miss St. One of them will be a must and I like the price on Adu but strongly believe Tolu Smith hits 30 fantasy points
- Herb Jones, John Petty for Bama
USF vs Wichita State:
Neither team plays a ton of defense but tempo won’t be great.
- USF: David Collins
- WICH: Dexter Dennis, Morris Udeze (Value)
Maryland vs Michigan:
Should be a good get right spot for Michigan to re-assert themselves as the best team in the conference as they run through the B10 tournament.
- Maryland: Donta Scott (He is their only hope IMO)
- Michigan: Hunter Dickinson
Florida vs Tennessee:
These teams just met and Florida was without their best player Tre Mann last time. Florida is the better team and if they are on from 3 they will win this one.
- Florida: Noah Locke (Value), Colin Castleton
- Tennssee: John Fulkerson (Just went off vs Florida, will be chalky, ok to fade IMO), Yves Pons
Ohio State vs Purdue:
Don’t love this game overall but Trevion Williams for Purdue should eat up Ohio State, while Jaden Ivey projects out really well.
- Purdue: Trevion Williams, Jaden Ivey