Before we begin what is a National Holiday write up, we must first air out the stench from the Corbin, Patrick performance last night
I say this is a National Holiday, because for the first time in two years we have a Friday with 15 MLB games on it and of those 15 games, one is a 2:20 PM EST Wrigley Field game and the other 14 all begin after 7:05 PM EST and will all be on the main slates tonight. Site synchronicity + Wrigley Day Drinking + … wait, Ryan Braun seriously retired? Oh well, guess who did homer today while you were sleeping.
Shin Soo Choo homered in his KBO Friday return this morning. That’s right, the guy was hitting like .112 so far this year, but 25% of us rostered him on a nice Friday morning.
And as if things couldn’t get any better, the one outlier game tonight which was Jake deGrom and the Mets going to Coors Field has been PPD — which does bring sadness because we lose the 1:14 slate configuration today but that’s the one game we probably all wanted to just get rid of anyways. They have this white stuff out in Coors this weekend so big bummer for all you people who wanted to stack the Mets in Coors it appears. But do not fret, we have some other things that haven’t happened in two years as there’s a good amount of NON DIVISIONAL GAMES (woo woo!) this weekend. Another major thing we lost during the fucktard year of 2020. Those series this weekend include
The Jays and Royals re-visiting their 2015 ALCS once again and once again the Royals are winning
The D’Backs get three more games hitting in Washington
St. Louis visits Philadelphia where a certain someone has a Birthday Today
The San Francisco Giants visit Miami, which may not mean that much tonight, but just remember that two days from now.
Our interleague series this weekend is the battle of Ohio, as the Indians visit the Reds and it feels like forever since they’re not playing each other on a Tuesday at 6:20 PM.
Battle of the Sox as Yoan Moncada visits Fenway to take on Boston
Rafael Palmeiro/Chris Davis series between the Orioles and Rangers in Arlington
The Tigers are still in Oakland
And we have a Rod Carew Series in Anaheim
WEATHER
Lots of colder games today, but none worse than Coors Field and they have PPD the game tonight, so cross that one off the list.
Blue Jays at Royals is a fairly high PPD risk
White Sox and Red Sox is also a fairly high PPD risk – Already PPD
WALKER BUEHLER
Yes he is on the road and not at home on a Friday, but I like that Fernado Tatis is actually in the lineup tonight. He has a bad shoulder injury and until I see him do things he did last year he is not a bat that really scares me tonight. We’re going to see Buehler come in around 2% owned being that he’s facing the Padres with Tatis back in the lineup. He’ll need to be smart vs Machado, but otherwise should control the rest of a lineup which is banged up or has guys who can’t hit him (Hosmer, Grisham, Cronenworth).
FRANKIE MONTAS
Montas is going to be very popular for $7,300 on DK and $7,500 on FD given that he’s in a great pitchers park against a weak offense in the Tigers. They will have plenty of switch and left hitting batters but that’s not an issue for Montas who will see a boost in strike-out upside vs the lefties and doesn’t carry much power/homer risk in this park given the players he’s facing. Good value mid range chalk option tonight and you are better off going H2H with Buehler over Scherzer chalk
I really do not want any part of any other pitcher tonight because you can build around these guys above, but there are a few other pitchers who I expect to perform better than general expectations
- Jorge Lopez (BAL)
- JT Brubaker (PIT) – The Pirates have about 3-7 more days of winning games they shouldn’t. Then it’s gonna get ugly
But your guys tonight are Buehler-Montas. See, that’s how it’s done on a 14 (ok, so it’s really 11) game slate. You don’t need 12 or 15 pitchers. My team is on the floor
And if one person asks me about the Italian in Miami … The answer is, no.
CLEVELAND INDIANS
Franmil, Bubba Ramirez, Eddie Rosario, Amed Rosario
Update – Go piss off Indians, you dont need fucking defense in Cincinnati, it’s a T-Ball field you donkeys. Franmil is OUT tonight, but I assure you, he will pinch hit homer and the tilt will be real. Assholes.
I think the biggest mistake that will be made tonight is recency bias. Recency bias says that Jeff Hoffman is a new pitcher (he faced the Cardinals and Diamondbacks, not exactly great offensives themselves) who controls his fastball and gets whiffs with his secondary stuff finally. No, he is the same guy. Recency bias says the Indians cannot hit as they just struck out a ton suddenly against Giolito-Rodon-Lynn in Chicago and that they cannot hit. Well, okay that’s kind of true — but this is also a fantastic ballpark and whenever Reds-Indians meet up we’ve gotta get a piece of it. Jose Ramirez and Eddie Rosario are the obvious must plays for the Indians but one simply does not play Indians in an National League park without rostering Franmil Reyes.
Giants / Marlins
Slater, Solano, Ruf, Longoria, Flores – SF
Dickerson, Jazz, Aguilar – Marlins
Yep, there are runs in this game. Problem with both teams is that they’re not exactly leaping off the page to easily identify the power spots but the Giants side is the better play there. Miami comes back home after raking in Atlanta and one should again ignore the recency bias that they’re suddenly going to drop 8-9 runs every game — they won’t. But they sure as hell aren’t going to go down quietly against the Italian (Tony Desclafani), who is more of a roller coaster yo-yo than your favorite penny stock or crypto currency. San Francisco is the better full stack and the Marlins offer a couple nice one offs like Corey Dickerson and Jazz Chisholm. The 0.2% owned Marlin? Jesus Aguilar homers.
Other favorable hitting spots / notes
- Astros / Mariners – Without key bats for now but they will put the ball in play all game long and I can see some long innings tonight. Brantley-Yuli-Correa-Tucker but some good value in Myles Straw as well on the Houston side which is the better one. That said, I dont trust anything with Houston’s pitching staff and the Mariners are the best sneaky stack tonight for good value. Haniger is locked in.
- Zona vs Washington – Lefties here because wind is in exact same situation as last night and I underestimated that. Max is known to give up homers early in games, so top of the order for Arizona — but that Nationals 8 run in the first 3 inning game is coming so they’re the much better stack against Widener and the Dbacks pen.
- Pirates …
- Nobody . ..
- Nobodyyyyy
- Absolutely nobooooodyyy..
- Not even Pirates fans!
- The Pirates are scoring 7 runs tonight – Polanco / Colin / Reynolds
- Twins vs Angels – It sucks that Rendon is hurt. Sano/Cruz/Buxton for the Twins.
- Cardinals – DeJong / Arenado / Goldy. Hoping for the solo HR here, not a 7-11 run type game.
CATCHER
- Roberto Perez – $3200 great price in fantastic game
- Jacob Stallings
- Will Smith
FIRST BASE
- Paul Goldschmidt … America’s first baseman in the birthplace of America. 0.430 wOBA, .305 ISO, .610 SLG, 8 HR, 8 2B, 105 AB.
- Josh Bell – When he gets going, the Nats will too.
- Yuli Gurriel
SECOND BASE
- Keston Hiura
- Donovan Solano
- Jorge Polanco …. when Polanco hits an 8th inning homer off the bullpen —>
THIRD BASE
… and Evan Longoria
SHORTSTOP
- Carlos Correa
- Eugenio Suarez
- Corey Seager
OUTFIELD – MT RUSHMORE
- Franmil Reyes
- Eddie Rosario
- Juan Soto
- Gregory Polanco
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Nick Castellanos
- Austin Slatttttttttttttttttttttttter
- Byron Buxton
- Anthony Santander
- Corey Dickerson
OUTFIELD – Value
- Kole Calhoun
- Myles Straw
- Mitch Haniger – Should not be $3,200 on DK and Urquidy could get ambushed early by a sneaky Mariners team
THE DONGERS CLUB
Franmil Reyes – OF – Cleveland Indians – Chairman of the Dongers Club
WELL CROSS HIM OFF THEN
- Nolan Arenado – 3B – Cardinals – Meet the New Chairman of the Dongers Club … Same as the old chairman
- Juan Soto – OF – Nationals
- Jorge Polanco – SS – Twins
- Yuli Gurriel – 1B – Astros
- Austin Slater – OF – Giants
- Keston Hiura – 2B – Brewers
- Will Smith – C – Dodgers
- BONUS ……………… Gregory Polanco – OF – THE Pittsburgh Pirates
- BONUS 2 …………………… Eddie Rosario – OF – Indians
BETS
THE Pittsburgh Pirates ML +130
Baltimore Orioles ML +112
Giants / Marlins OVER 8.5
Astros / Mariners OVER 8