There are NINE games on DraftKings, and EIGHT on FanDuel for today’s Main slate. Very nice to keep the afternoon games away from the early slate so we can have something good to tilt enter later this afternoon. The one difference is that DK has included the 7-inning White Sox / Red Sox game, as they have been doing the past two seasons and I like having the 7-inning games but hopefully you don’t get the no hitter bonus if you get a 7 inning no hitter.
WEATHER
All games play
GERRIT COLE
I’m usually one to venture down into the mid range and look for slight home dogs in Sunday spots, but this early in the season the temps aren’t in the mid 80’s everywhere yet to justify fading all the top stud arms. In this case we have Cole vs Bieber, Strasburg and Nola. Bieber I do not want to use outside of the AL Central, Nola has to prove he can remove the afternoon hiccups he’s had for almost three years now and Strasburg … no. Cole and the Yankees are on the verge of being demoted to the Cape Cod League the way the media is spinning it, and their ace needs to stop the bleeding against a team who he should be able to push into the 30-40% strikeout rate range today. He’s our ace to ride.
Note: Strasburg already injured and scratched. Figures…
SP2 Notes … I don’t hate the idea of trying to combine Cole with one of Bieber, Nola and Peralta, here’s my opinion on all three
- Aaron Nola: Goldy/Arenado are two guys who will like what Nola throws, the rest of the lineup is going to pound sand today. Good spot for Nola to pitch well and he is my favorite of these three
- Shane Bieber: I came into this season believing that Bieber would struggle compared to expectations when he went outside of the AL Central, but he’s going to still get 7-8 strikeouts just by stepping onto the mound today
- Freddy Peralta: My model hates him, and I’m still not a believer that he’s a changed man yet either. But it is the Pirates. This is your chalky SP2 today.
PABLO LOPEZ
The return of South Beach Theory! With COVID last year we missed out on the annual tradition of taking Marlins pitchers at home on Sunday’s. Especially following those early Saturday 6PM games, especially after the visiting team had a good Saturday offensively and ESPECIALLY when it’s Pablo-Pablo-Pablo Lopez. Giants not a great offense vs RHP and Lopez’s $6,200 price tag is extremely favorable for our builds today as well.
JOHN MEANS (DK Only)
The roof might be open in Texas because it’s not that warm for Texas weather and the wind is blowing in as well. Means is basically getting a nice park shift here and we’ve seen Orioles pitchers do well in this series pitching down in the big COSTCO warehouse that is Globe Life Park/Field/Stadium/Whatever they’re calling it. Texas has a strike-out friendly offense and between Gibson and Means this is the higher K% upside. If you wanted to stack pitchers you could here but with Cole and other aces you’re essentially giving the rest of the field a 20 point advantage on you so I don’t know why we’d want to do that. Means is my choice of the two given the lineup he will face.
Preferred 3-entry max SP Builds in any order…
- Cole & Nola
- Cole & Lopez
- Cole & Means
With all those big name pitchers and medium hitting conditions we once again have a slate that doesn’t present a ton of boom hitting choices. I mean, do you really want to trust the Brewers again without Yelich? Do you want to ride down to Miami to stack up the Marlins who are going to put up 6 runs with scattered singles? White Sox / Red Sox is favorable for the hitters but not that warm in Boston and only a 7 inning game most likely. Tough sledding today, and I think your best build is to spread out 2-2-2 style in your lineups as a core.
ROYALS
Whit Merrifield, Carlos Santana, Jorge Soler
The Royals will be seeing a LHP for the fourth time in this series, which is so rare it hasn’t happened since 1980. But unlike Steven Matz who was dominating them in the first game of a doubleheader yesterday, Robbie Ray is someone we can proudly attack. Matz gets a lot of ground balls, Ray does not. Ray is the closest thing to Matt Boyd the Royals will see and they absolutely dominate Matt Boyd, so I expect similar results against Ray today. Salvy had a little 1 & a half day cold spell and then hit the walk off winner, he’s locked in but Santana+Whit+Soler are the key players to produce heavily today.
PHILLIES
Harper, Rhys, Segura, Bohm, JT Realmuto
I expect the Phillies to hit 3+ home runs today. John Gant isn’t going to miss many bats and the Cardinals middle inning pitchers have been … not so good? Bryce Harper after a Saturday off is one of the homers, either Rhys or Realmuto is the second and the value of Alec Bohm ($3,400) and a hot Jean Segura ($4,300) make them the extra legs to lock in here today.
INDIANS / REDS
Reyes, Luplow, Winker, Suarez
The Cleveland side here looks good with wind blowing out to center, clear conditions and Wade Miley on the mound. That’s perfect for Franmil and Luplow and Franmil is locked into every lineup I have today at $4,600 on DK. For the Reds though I wouldn’t mind having some exposure there against Bieber even, who if I am right could pay off with a struggling game outside of the division when nobody is on this yet.
NATIONALS
Turner, Soto, Zimmerman, Castro
We’ve been waiting for an offense to just go off in D.C. and everyone’s gonna look here against Bumgarner. I say temper expectations slightly but anytime you can stack Ryan Zimmerman and Starlin Castro you just gotta do it right? Bumgarner has been the worst pitcher of those who are going today so far, he’ll pitch better than he has but not good enough to avoid giving up some homers in a decent hitting park.
CATCHER
- Salvador Perez
- Omar Narvaez
FIRST BASE
I swear to god if Keston Hiura goes off today I am going to be so pissed, he was my #1 get hot guy coming into this week and he’s done nothing but slap a few singles around…. Yet it’s another good spot for him at a position where you don’t wanna spend too much but also should not ignore guys who are in really good spots within the stacks mentioned above (Santana/Zimm). Pair whoever you have here with other players in the lineup and don’t go one off shopping at 1st.
- Carlos Santana
- Ryan Zimmerman
- Keston Hiura
- Rhys Hoskins
SECOND BASE
- Sunday Whit (Merrifield)
- Cavan Biggio … relatively cold but most likely to give Singer Fits.
- Jean Segura
THIRD BASE
- Alec Bohm
- Travis Shaw
- Starlin Castro
SHORTSTOP
- Miguel Rojas – Nice value at $3,600 leading off vs Alex Wood
- Trea Turner – The light bulb is on. Nationals don’t go off without him.
- Smooooth Jazz Chisholm
OUTFIELD – MT RUSHMORE
- Franmil Reyes
- Harper, Bryce
- Bryan Reynolds
- Jorge Soler
OUTFIELD – TIER 2
- Eddie Rosario
- Jordan Luplow
- Starling Marte
OUTFIELD – Value
- Gregory Polanco
- Jesse Winker
- Adam Duvall
- Michael A. Taylor
- Amed Rosario
- Franmil Reyes – OF – Indians – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Whit Merrifield – 2B – Royals
- Bryce Harper – OF – Phillies
- Alec Bohm – 3B – Phillies
- Jesse Winker – OF – Reds
- Keston Hiura – 1B – Brewers
- Miguel Rojas – SS – Marlins
- Roberto Perez – C – Indians
- BONUS ……………………. Bryan Reynolds – OF – Pirates
BETS
Royals ML
Indians/Reds OVER 7
Marlins Team Total OVER 4.5 Runs