This is one of the bigger Sunday slates you will ever see — if not the biggest since we had 15 game all day Sunday slates (which were the GOAT tbqh). Only two games in the afternoon and a really good showdown contest at 7PM between the Padres and Dodgers.
The Diamondbacks and Braves game is a 7 inning game.
WEATHER
Seattle at Boston – RAIN – I do not see this game playing but they will likely try to wait it out. So if no PPD before start then they’re waiting to get it in. It’s cold, it’s rainy. It probably sucks. Boston is killing LHP though, so you gotta consider them slightly if the weather does clear up.
- Washington at NY Mets – RAIN – Good PPD Risk here given that it’s a divisional game but it does clear up afterwards which opens the door for Pete Alonso to homer.
- Pittsburgh at Minnesota – Light Rain – Game plays. Chilly. Bad hitting conditions but great hitting matchup for Twins.
- Wind in at Wrigley. Cool here too.
- Wind out in Comerica – Out to Left Center – Around 13 MPH . Big boost for hitters. LFG….
It’s still chilly. Which sucks.
JACK FLAHERTY
My favorite SP game stack spot today is Jack vs Castillo and I think nobody will touch either guy because neither has been dominant. But especially Castillo who is due for a huge game after he struggled early in his last start. Actually, he has struggled in every start really but these two are both gonna duel it out and Jack is the more reliable option of the two. Don’t mind stacking them together either here as an extremely contrarian build because recency bias will be against Castillo and it shouldn’t be.
BRANDON WOODRUFF
Woody has been excellent — as have most Brewers pitchers — this young season. Wind in and cooler temps should favor him today as well in Wrigleyville. He has yielded only .252 xSLG on the season and for $9,400 can be paired with Jack to form a nice 1-2 punch on DK
JESUS LUZARDO
This was gonna be a cheap Lucas Giolito but thankfully he was scratched. Baltimore strikes out a ton and while Luzardo is still learning the mental side of pitching his stuff + the opponent is enough of a combination to consider him if you need some room for extra hitters. I would expect 5-6 IP with 7 strikeouts and 2-3 ER allowed from Luzardo. Upside is 8 or 9 strikeouts if his pitch count is managed well.
Dont like
- Duffy – This is the blow up game
- Ryu – Brosseaux too much risk and he hasn’t been good this year.
- E-Rod/Walker – Rain issues and no thanks on Walker
- Kopech – Limited. Wont go long. Biggest donkey play of the season
Honestly if ever there was a slate to just go down to the positional break down and pick your favorite four combo’s 2+2+2+2 this is the slate. There’s no team today that just jumps out at us as being in a spot to put up a ton of runs, but we’ll try to find some spots that look good.
WHITE SOX
Abreu / Anderson / Robert
For my money Kohei Arihara is the pitcher I would pick on the most this afternoon. He basically will just throw a bunch of garbage up to the plate, most of which is going to miss the zone and right-handed bats have had no trouble squaring him up. With a low strikeout potential against a solid lineup this could be a long day for the Japenese pitcher. This is the main team I like the most today on an Island by themselves.
Kansas City (Duffy) at Detroit (Fulmer)
Comerica Wind Theory
Love when the wind is blowing out 14+ MPH to Left Center in Comerica Field and I smell the bad Duffy start coming a mile away. Detroit’s one of the worst teams in the league vs LHP as we noted against Mike Minor the other night but as we saw on Saturday there’s still time for April dogs to jump up and bite you. Avoid Duffy today with many cheap top end SP’s going and look at the wind here for a little HR boost from the Tigers side along with the obvious Royals plays in Comerica Park.
TWINS
Arraez / Buxton / Donaldson
Will Crowe? Starting? What is going on here Pirates? It’s very cold in Minnesota, so temper expectations because of that, but the Twins should absolutely put runners on base all day long.
Here are the other games which look favorable for hitting.
Oakland (Luzardo) at Baltimore (Means)
Two lefties will meet in a game which I figured would have been part of a DH today but they plowed through the rain last night. Baltimore is the sneaky side here because as great as Luzardo’s stuff is he still struggles mentally with how to mix things up as the game moves along and sometimes gets too fastball happy. Franco, Severino and Mancini would be the main Orioles.
John Means can be a tough guy to pick on at times but Mark Canha is hitting LHP very well and along with Lowrie, Laureano and Chapman those are the most likely targets in this game.
Anaheim (Bundy) vs Houston (McCullers)
Two pitchers who are either on or get into trouble. Bundy won’t strike out a ton but he does well vs Houston and McCullers should be able to survive if Trout remains out. But the park is one of the better spots today for offense and Houston is hitting fairly well right now. So look here for a few one offs if you must but I would not rush to stack it.
Other notes
- Arizona Lefties are in a great spot against Bryse Wilson. Yes, it’s only a 7 inning game but the weather is fine here and 7 innings is enough to consider it with the slate being so bleak on offense.
CATCHER
- Sean Murphy – By golly I am going to get my road catchers homer in Camden Yards!
- Danny Jansen – the punt 2k catcher of the day
- Yasmani Grandal – Stack only
FIRST BASE
- Jose Abreu – His heater comes this week. Get ready to jump on board.
- Vlad Guerrero Jr
- Carlos Santana
SECOND BASE
- Luis Arraez – Twins should put ball in play or atleast draw some walks today. Arraez looks solid for a nice 4-5 day leading off and a couple run scored.
- Sunday Whit
- Mike Brosseaux
THIRD BASE
- El Mate Chap hombre … That’s my best way of saying Matt Chapman while sounding really cool
- Maikel Franco
- Jeimer Candelario
SHORTSTOP
- Beaux Bichette
- Willi Castro
- Paul DeJong
OUTFIELD – Tier 1
- Jorge Soler
- Mark Canha
- Eddie Rosario
- David Peralta – LH batters have given Wilson lots of troubles. Only 7 innings but you’re better off with the road team in such a scenario.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Luis Robert
- Randy Arozarena
- Ramon Laureano
- Byron Buxton
OUTFIELD – Value
- Ryan Mountcastle
- Robbie Grossman
- Myles Straw
- Jorge Soler – OF – Royals – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Sean Murphy – C – Athletics
- David Peralta – OF – Diamondbacks
- Maikel Franco – 3B – Orioles
- Mike Brosseaux – 2B – Rays
- Beaux Bichette – SS – Jays
- Jose Abreu – 1B – White Sox
- Eddie Rosario – OF – Indians
- Jeimer Candelario – 3B – Tigers
BETS
- Royals / Tigers OVER 8.5
- Rays / Jays OVER
- Pirates / Twins – First Inning Runs – Yes
- Jorge Soler to HR