Another weekday early Main slate. Soon we’ll be into a normal season. This is a very quiet Thursday slate but it does feature Matt Harvey in Camden Yards and Coors Field one more time.
WEATHER
There is some rain in Minnesota for the Twins home opener but a long enough window where it’s not that bad to allow them to get the game in without any issues.
There is also some rain in Chicago for the White Sox home opener and this one looks a little more risky but likely plays. It is worth monitoring however.
It’s a pitching slate to get creative with your pitchers on DraftKings. FanDuel I would just take the top guy as there is good value in OF today.
JOSE BERRIOS – $9,800
The reason to play Berrios isn’t because I want to double down on his dominant first start. Yes, the match-up vs Seattle looks solid for him and yes he has talent to potentially break the slate — but that’s not an automatic thing to happen. The reason to play Berrios is because SP2 alone is going to be hard to identify, picking two guys not named Berrios and expecting them both to top him is just stretching it too far.
The next likely choices for everyone will be Corbin Burnes, Lance Lynn and Jake Arrieta. I don’t need to tell you that Arrieta even though vs Pittsburgh is the easy chalky SP2 that we fade. Burnes, like Berrios pitched a gem in his first start and is on the road vs a Cardinals team that has too many guys who I expect to hit him today. So it comes down to Lynn vs the Royals and everyone will be chasing him expecting the Royals to strike-out a ton like they did vs Bieber. I disagree.
BRAD KELLER – $6,900
Think back to yesterday when Kyle Gibson came out and dominated Toronto. We all took a beating on it but it reminded me of something early in the season with pitchers and that is we’re going to see a lot of guys who aren’t exactly new to pitching come out and bounce back after a rough first or second start. Keller, like Gibson, is a big sinker baller who relies on that sinker working to get success and like Gibson he didn’t have it in the first outing. Keller’s done well vs the White Sox and he is someone who really keeps the ball in the park. No Tim Anderson, a lost Yoan Moncada and the chalky SP2 on the other side makes this my preferred leverage pivot on pitching.
JON GRAY – $7,000
Have you seen the Diamondbacks offense? No? Well guess what, neither have they. David Peralta looks like he finally has hit the wall and may not come back, Christian Walker remains a walking solo HR and Eduardo Escobar is striking out more than a Tout who sides as a Landscaper does at the bar when he references his PhD in Bracketology. Sure, I have a little long term temptation in Pavin Smith but he’ll likely only hit at home and we have a long standing history of using pitchers in get away day games in Coors to our advantage. Jon Gray knows how to pitch here and he should know how to navigate through the lineup enough to be alright given the context of this slate.
If you are feeling super wild, consider Merrill Kelly who the model absolutely loves today. I can’t pull the trigger on it though.
One other quick note:
Eduardo Rodriguez – Camden Yards can be a tricky spot to pitch in and I have some theories on LHP in Camden but that’s for another day and time. Eduardo Rodriguez can also be a horrible pitcher himself but he has absolutely loved pitching in Camden historically. In 9 starts he’s yielded just a 2.60 ERA and has 54K over 52 IP. Just some noise in terms of data though because E-Rod who is coming back from not playing in the pandemic season due to medical reasons only threw 13 IP in 4 starts during the Spring. I can’t push down this path in a tricky park when he is not stretched out anywhere near being able to be trusted.
A quick though on leverage/SP on something like this slate
One other guy I didn’t mention is the pitcher facing Jose Berrios and that’s Marco Gonzales. If he decides to just walk Nelson Cruz that would be ideal because the rest of the lineup could struggle with his soft tossing lefty garbage. So while the Keller pivot off Lynn is one leverage pivot there’s also pivoting off Berrios to Marco and pairing him with Lynn in stead. The third and final leverage is Waino vs the Brewers and have fun with that.
If you are stacking 5 players you are really rolling the dice right now. Teams aren’t usually posting big numbers early in the season because Bullpens are still rested and the offenses haven’t quite exploded yet which is very normal. Just a reminder, building your core as 3-2 or 2-2 will be the best starting point in April.
CARDINALS
Goldy, Edman, DeJong, Nado, Carpenter
My favorite “sneaky” game today. Corbin Burnes certainly has some incredible strikeout potential but he has a history of just getting shredded by the Cardinals. When the home town broadcast is moaning about it in the first inning you know it’s bad. Burnes has made 4 starts vs St. Louis given up 6 homers and has an ERA well over 6. The xWOBA on Edman, DeJong, Goldy, Carpenter and lookie here — new guy Arenado — are all above .450. Wind is blowing out but not super hot in St. Louis but give me the over and some Cards/Brewers love today.
RED SOX / ORIOLES
Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts … Ryan Mountcastle, Trey Mancini, Maikel Franco
Boston faces Matt Harvey in Camden Yards. Boston isn’t an offense I am in love with as much as the general public, but they are swinging well, good weather here and oh yeah, did I mention Matt Harvey in Camden Yards. Don’t sleep on Baltimore though, I have felt all along Baltimore would challenge to finish higher than Boston this season and we know the Sox pen isn’t special. This is a 3:05 start in Camden Yards, which in April means there will most definitely be some mid inning/late game shadows that creep in. And we don’t exactly have David Ortiz vs Raffy Palmeiro in this game either so temper expectations if you are just going with 8 hitters in this game. But you’ll want some early inning parts of it.
METS
McNeil, Lindor
Bullpen game for the Miami Marlins and while the Rays are excellent at that, the Marlins have never been good at it under Mattingly. Expect the Mets to be a popular play today and it is Jeff McNeil’s birthday if you are into that sort of thing. Hard to recommend a specific Met given the unknown of the Marlins pen, but to fill in your lineup with a Met would not be a bad move grasshopper. Like Corey Dickerdong on the other side.
CATCHER
- Christian Vazquez
- Pedro Severino
- Jorge Alfaro
FIRST BASE
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Trey Mancini … Funny how he went from $2,000 to $4,500 in less than a week.
- Colin Moran
SECOND BASE
- Jeff McNeil
- Tommy Edman / Matt Carpenter … All these MPE guys on these sites and they’re both 2B only on DK. Prefer Edman
- Kolten Wong
THIRD BASE
- Maikel Franco
- Asdrubal Cabrera
- Nolan Arenado
SHORTSTOP
- X gonna give it to ya Bogaerts #RIP
- Francisco Lindor … First home game…. Feels… Kind….. of…. Obvious?
- Jonathan Villar
OUTFIELD – MT RUSHMORE
- Alex Verdugo
- Nelson Cruz
- Ryan Mountcastle
- Corey Dickerson
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Anthony Santander
- Adam Duvall
- Byron Buxton
- Hunter Renfroe
OUTFIELD – Value
- Pavin Smith
- Franchy Cordero
- Jorge Soler
- Joc Pederson
- Bryan Reynolds
THE DONGERS CLUB
- Ryan Mountcastle – OF – Orioles – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Alex Verdugo – OF – Red Sox
- Corey Dickerson – OF – Marlins
- Francisco Lindor – SS – Mets
- Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Cardinals
- Maikel Franco – 3B – Orioles
- Jeff McNeil – 2B – Mets
- Omar Narvaez – C – Brewers
- BONUS ………….. Jorge Soler – OF – Royals
BETS
- Pirates +127
- Marlins / Mets OVER 8.5
- Brewers / Cardinals OVER 8
- Cardinals ML