Administrative Items
Round two of the May Dongers Club Appreciation Contest is tonight – click here to join.
The rule for tonight’s contest is that you must use one pitcher OVER $8,000 and one pitcher UNDER $8,000. Chris Bassit is exactly $8,000 so he qualifies into the OVER category as it’s 8k+. If you fail to do this then you’ll receive a 0 from your highest scoring pitcher. And if your highest scoring pitcher is negative then well you are just disqualified from the contest.
WEATHER
There are 12 games on the MAIN slate tonight and each and every one of them will be played barring some cicada or flying termite outbreak. There are two which have slight rain concerns but nothing that will PPD the game.
- Toronto at Atlanta – The 90’s World Series rivalry that should have happened more than once. Very light rain, no issues.
- San Diego at Colorado – DH tomorrow, so they will get this one in. It’s cold and rainy again though but not as bad rain wise. Game plays.
- Roof closed in Milwaukee
- Roof TBD in Houston (possibly open)
- Roof likely open in Arizona
- Roof ugly in Tampa
Walker Buehler … (DK: $9,800, FD: $10,800)
The great news for Walker is that the Mariners are waiting until their next series to promote Jarred Kelenic who came into the minor league season and slapped those guys around silly BTW, he’s gonna be legit when he gets called up.
But tonight Walker just has to deal with a couple lefty bats in Seager, Crawford and Trammell and of those three Seager is the one with the most power to do some damage however the guys ahead of him Haniger-Lewis are both above average strikeout possibilities for Buehler tonight so a solo HR won’t kill us. I don’t see Buehler being the play on FanDuel over 10k because he isnt someone they let throw 105-110 pitches and push through 7 innings but he has back to back games going over 8 strikeouts and that should be a good target number today. I’d set his projection right at 8 strikeouts, 6 innings, 1 ER tonight.
Jordan Montgomery … (DK: $7,900, FD: $6,400)
Tampa has a long history of rolling out heavy split lineups based on the handed pitcher they are facing and we should monitor that tonight. But the information I want to pass along here is that J-Mont is continuing to be extremely good against LHB this season holding them to a .194 xWOBA and a 31%+ strikeout rate. Furthermore, the Rays have a bunch of guys who just aren’t hitting LHP right now and among their regulars here are some strikeout rates on the ’21 season — Arozarena (32%), Meadows (32%), Lowe (39%), Adames (42%), Brosseau (26%), Wendle (29%) Zunino (29%). Brosseau obviously has great power splits against LHP but with the Rays returning back to the dump at home and Montgomery not being someone who gives up a ton of hard contact I would expect him to pitch a very clean and high upside game. He definitely has 20+ DK potential today.
Brady Singer … (DK: $5,700, FD: $7,800)
Speaking of lock bets, the Royals haven’t won in over a week and now head to a place they’ve gotta be confident in as Detroit has been a great road spot for them the last few seasons. Adding fuel to that fire is Matt Boyd who they have owned despite him pitching very well against them earlier this season. For Singer, he’s gotta control his emotions and will be happy to not have Angel Hernandez behind the plate. Singer was pitching great against Cleveland until a bad HBP call and then a correct balk call imploded on him and the entire team. Singer has done fantastic vs the Tigers in his young career and for $5,700 you aren’t taking much risk in attacking the worst offense in all of baseball with someone who has proven he has good control.
Marcus Stroman … (DK: $9,100, FD: $8,400)
Really bad park shift for the Orioles and John Means is not gonna win off his no hitter tonight so I definitely love the Mets to win which is a must for Stroman because paying 9k for a guy who relies on ground balls and not strikeouts is never something we expect to win tournaments for us. But he should have a clean game and the birds lose the DH which has to help Stroman out as well. Baltimore is batting just .208 on the season vs RHP compared to .277 vs LHP.
2% owned pitcher who pitches well again
- Kenta Maeda … I just don’t want to get this cute against an offense that can always pop off. But I like Maeda to pitch well again if you are doing 3+ lineups.
There are not many teams I would like to stack 3+ hitters from today, in fact, there is really only one.
St. Louis Cardinals
Arenado, Goldschmidt, Molina, DeJong
St Louis going to Milwaukee to destroy the Brewers pitching. A tradition since … well, even before Goldschmidt and Arenado arrived to be honest. But now that these two Miller Park murders are in town it’s even more of an auto play situation. Goldschmidt might get all the hype because in his first year with the Cardinals he started off the season white hot in Miller Park with 5 HR there and I honestly think it’s only listing 5 because they stopped counting after the first series. But Arenado has never had a series in Milwaukee in his career where he did not homer and in 76 PA he has a .397/.461/.838 slash line which translates into 27 hits, 6 doubles and 8 homers. Alright, so which Brewer gets to face these guys first? Oh, Freddy Peralta who’s new shine is quickly fading off this season after he clearly just looked good against a bad Cubs team in cold conditions to start the season. The Cards come in hitting decent as well (6 guys xSLG over last 50 is above .600) and this is a perfect park shift for them to hang a 12 spot tonight.
Washington Nationals
Schwarber, Bell, Soto, Turner
The Nats have a few old NL Central guys (Schwarber, Bell, Harrison) and I like their match-up against Chase Anderson to warrant some Nats love today. Philly’s bullpen hasn’t exactly been lights out recently either and so we could see a short Anderson outing followed by some favorable innings later on.
Teams I expect to perform above expectations tonight
Oakland Athletics
Canha, Lowrie, Olson/Moreland
Speaking of park shifts whenever Oakland is in an AL East park they’re going to be under-priced. Such is the case today on DraftKings for this lineup which may not look like they’ve done much lately because of a ton of home games but is a good value spot tonight. One main concern for Oakland is still Matt Chapman who hasn’t quite gotten healthy yet to hit gas and that’s what Eovaldi is going to bring. But I love Matt Olson going oppo off the monster and if Laureano/Lowrie can get on ahead of him then we could see a few crooked innings for the A’s tonight who are a good mid range stack on DK. And yes, we have Mitch Moreland back in Boston. Ignore the Eovaldi BvP here.
Minnesota Twins
Kepler, Donaldson, Sano, Polanco
Love the Twins just hate the weather here. It’s gonna just be around 50 degrees in Chicago, but I expect the Twins to give Cease a tough outing.
CATCHER
- Reese McGuire – Getting the start vs a SP who really doesn’t fare well vs LHB, and while I don’t expect 2 AB against Wilson, he should still see more RHP out of the pen. Need a Jay? It’s him, Grichuk or Bichette.
- Yadier Molina – Use only in 4-5 man stack.
- James McCann
- Gary Sanchez
FIRST BASE
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Matt Olson
- Miguel Sano
SECOND BASE
- Jake Cronenworth – This is the best use of getting Coors exposure tonight.
- Whit Merrifield
- Ozzie Albies – Ozzie & Ozuna the main Atlanta guys.
THIRD BASE
- Nolan
- Kyle Seager
- Brian Anderson
SHORTSTOP
- Paul DeJong
- Trea Turner
- ….. uhh
- This position sucks, just play DeJong or go chalky Bo Bichette from Toronto
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
It’s not exactly a who’s who at outfield tonight in my mind. Based on pricing and given the depth of the slate, we don’t need to spend a ton here with some good HR pop spots.
- Kyle Schwarber
- Jorge Soler
- Dylan Carlson
- Randal Grichuk
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- David Peralta
- Marcell Ozuna
- Trent Grisham
- Mark Canha / Ramon Laureano
OUTFIELD – Value
- Max Kepler
- Alex Verdugo
- Tyrone Taylor
- Garrett Cooper
The Dongers Club
- Nolan Arenado – 3B – Cardinals – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Paul DeJong – SS – Cardinals
- Randal Grichuk – OF – Blue Jays
- Jorge Soler – OF – Royals
- Kyle Schwarber – OF – Nationals
- Jake Cronenworth – 2B – Padres
- Gary Sanchez – C – Yankees
- Matt Olson – 1B – Athletics
- BONUS …………………. Max Kepler – OF – Twins
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- Padres – Only fill in your lineup with a Padre if you are struggling with a position or around your core stack.
- Blue Jays / Braves – You would think Jays/Braves would be the spot we run towards, but I am light on it today and you know how much I like the Jays normally.
- Nationals
Team with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP (i.e. Low owned secondary stacks)/
- Cardinals
- Athletics
- Dodgers
Best Leverage Spots
- Cardinals
- Royals – Matt Boyd for $6,300 is quite odd.
BETS
- Mets -147
- Royals -121
- Twins +106
- Cardinals / Brewers OVER 7
- Marlins / Diamondbacks OVER 8 – Like this game for HR upside but it honestly is a random spin the wheel spot.