WEATHER
Zero issues among the 10 games tonight.
- Roof closed in Milwaukee
- Roof closed in Houston
- Roof open in Arizona
- How the heck is it only 53 degrees in Atlanta?
- Cold in Chicago as well
This is not a slate where I am extremely clear on the only guys that I like, because I could make a justification for about 7 to 8 guys all total. It’s a top heavy slate for pitching and this is a prime spot to have different exposure on your pitchers tonight and not lock in 100% on any one guy because there’s a ton of upside.
Gerrit Cole … (DK: $10,500, FD: $12,000)
He is Cole. They are the Rays. This is going to end with him as the highest scoring pitcher on both sites and for that reason along he is considered optimal. Tampa has a lower K% vs RHP but this is still a 9-10 strikeout upside spot.
Jose Urquidy … (DK: $8,000, FD: $7,400)
Wow, this Angels lineup went from “Always stack the Angels” to …. I don’t even know how to describe what they have rolled out tonight. Ohtani is leading off, and that is cool. Then following him are the following players
- Iglesias
- Walsh
- Ward … as in Taylor Ward. Batting cleanup.
- Who the fuck is Taylor Ward you ask?
- Fuck if I know
- Supposedly she is the new star of Love Island. Whatever the hell that is. Oh, that’s the wrong Taylor Ward.
- Oh wait, it’s that Taylor Ward who has a career .214 average. Batting 4th. For your Anaheim Angels.
- Batting 5th … Jose Rojas
- Batting 6th … Juan fricken Lagares
- Batting 7th … oh yes, it gets worse … Phil Gosselin
- Batting 8th …
- Wait for it
- Wait for it
- JON JAY!
- And batting 9th … another former Royal, Drew Butera
Doesn’t matter who is pitching for Houston tonight. Literally give me whoever they roll out.
Hyun-Jin Ryu … (DK: $7,100)
Atlanta is another team who continues to just not hit against LHP and it’s something I do expect to change but with the poor hitting conditions in Atlanta and Ryu being in a good price range for building stack lineups around him you should include him in your short list — but only on DraftKings today.
Danny Duffy … (DK: $8,900, FD: $10,200)
You must have a short memory and the Tigers scoring a bunch of runs in two innings last night was entirely on Singer having zero velocity and missing on his spots last night. He struggled big time and today we go back to picking on the Tigers with lefty pitchers as they’re the worst team in the league vs LHP with a projected K% at the top of the order around 35% tonight. Duffy meanwhile has been extremely good this season and has always fared well vs Detroit.
Julio Urias … (DK: $9,700, FD: $8,700)
Urias popped for a 40 point performance on April 20th against the Mariners in Seattle. It figures that he should be able to replicate the base efficiency from that game that today given how well he has pitched for most of this season when they let him have some length. The length is always the problem with Urias as they won’t push him over 90 pitches so you have some risk in that regard but with him coming off only a 76 pitch outing I believe he can get to that number and strike-out 7 or more Mariners along the way. He struck out 11 on 88 pitches on the 20th.
Other Guys to include in the mix as an SP2 on DK…
- John Gant
- Eduardo Rodriguez
Avoiding
- Zack Wheeler – Not off a high pitch count game
- Brandon Woodruff – Like the Cards bats again
L.A. Dodgers
Seager, Muncy, Betts, Lux
The Day has arrived. LA has been struggling here over the past month and between injuries and just lack of big innings they’ve lacked that thump on most nights. Enter Justin Dunn who has a fastball that looks like batting practice and often is wild when he is afraid of getting hit hard. It’s gonna look hard to get the Dodgers in on DK tonight because they did a great job pricing them up, so consider Seager and Muncy one off plays there while the rest of the team looks dynamite for a 4-man stack on FD. They’re scoring 9 runs minimum tonight.
Marlins/Diamondbacks
Rojas/Aguilar/Duvall …. Locastro, Asdrubal, Walker, Kelly
Both teams provide nice value stacks and with the roof open here this park should play better than the rest of the games out there not mentioned above. Boston is chilly, Atlanta is chilly and Houston roof is closed so this is the spot to shop for good HR value as Gallen faces the team who traded him away and the D’Backs who have been sneaky vs LHP will get a mediocre one tonight. Helloooo Christian Walker.
St. Louis Cardinals
Arenado, Goldschmidt, DeJong
Arenado and Goldy got some more fantasy points thanks to extra innings last night but it wasn’t like they didn’t hit the ball hard all night. If you think the Cardinals get ignored again you are correct as Brandon Woodruff has been really good and will be popular. But Nado and Goldy are two guys I believe in vs any good SP and will auto recommend in Great American Beer Park.
Washington Nationals
Soto, Schwarber, Robles
It appears the Nationals have gone from the “chalk team that goes off” to the “low owned team that goes off” this season. Tonight is a night that folks will be off them as they face Zack Wheeler coming off a great start mid week last week. Unfortunately for Zack, he threw a ton of pitches in that CG start and is now an easy target for someone who is going to come out with dead arm tonight. Have to like someone at the bottom of this lineup to pop off for them to have a big day and that’s a hard area to stomach but after Turner-Soto-Bell-Schwarber you might was well throw in a min priced Victor Robles when going all in with a Nats build.
CATCHER
- Jake Rogers … Jake is a good young hitter for the Tigers who is near min price at $2,100 and really opens up the rest of the lineup to be what you want it to be. While that might read as a really weak attempt at describing someone who is being offered up as a blind date for your daughter, just understand that if I had shown you his picture with his porn stache you would have said hell no, so the description I gave is actually quite the sales job.
- Carson Kelly
- Sandy Leon
FIRST BASE
- Paul Goldschmidt … Homered again in MIL last night in extras and hit ball hard all game.
- Max Muncy
- Christian Walker
SECOND BASE
- Gavin Lux … Door #1. Bottom of the order young bat who homered last night for top stack on the slate.
- Kolten Wong … Door #2. Chalky lead off hitter for the value stack of the day that I don’t love but like this as a one off.
- Isan Diaz … Door #3. … This guy
THIRD BASE
Hard to ignore the studs here but Alec Bohm or someone has to light up Lester.
- Nolan
- Rafael Devers
- Alec Bohm
SHORTSTOP
- Corey Seager … Hey Big Bro, my turn!
- Paul DeJong
- Miguel Rojas
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Jorge Soler
- Juan Soto
- Kyle Tucker
- Mookie Betts
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
Three douchebags walk into a bar …
- Kyle Schwarber
- Hunter Dozier
- Jared Walsh
OUTFIELD – Value
- Tim Locastro – If he does lead off for sub 3k, he will be heavily owned and good value chalk IMO.
- Victor Robles
- Dylan Carlson
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr
The Dongers Club
- Nolan Arenado – 3B – Cardinals – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Jorge Soler – OF – Royals
- Kyle Schwarber – OF – Nationals
- Corey Seager – SS – Dodgers
- Mookie Betts – OF – Dodgers
- Max Muncy – 1B – Dodgers
- Gavin Lux – 2B – Dodgers
- Sandy Leon – C – Marlins
- BONUS ………………………….. Jared Walsh – Angels
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- Red Sox
- Dodgers
- Brewers
Team with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP (i.e. Low owned secondary stacks)
- Nationals
- Blue Jays – The model absolutely loves them tonight vs Fried who has been hit only by RH bats this year and that’s their entire lineup. Cool in Atlanta though.
Best Leverage Spots
- John Gant – Lots of value on the Brewers lineup will make them higher owned than most would think tonight.
- Cardinals – Guys who love the park and are hitting ball hard right now against 2nd highest owned SP in Woodruff.
- Nationals
BETS
- Royals ML
- Nationals / Phillies OVER 8.0
- Marlins / Diamondbacks OVER 8.5
3-Entry Max Pitchers
- Cole & Javier
- Duffy & Ryu
- Urias & Gant