This Wednesday evening slate features 12 games on it tonight.
WEATHER
Finally, it’s Warm.
Wind is blowing out over 10 MPH in Wrigley Field.
We expect Roof to be closed in Texas
We expect some showers but no PPD in the Brewers/Royals game
The start time on the Indians/Angels game is 8:05 EST which means it’s a 5PM local start time and likely shadows
All games play
Below you will find information that aligns back to the Dashboard ratings and rankings. This is intended to do a better job of aligning with what is following along with the data versus what is being recommended from the gut/analysis aspect of things. Keep in mind with this that the ratings are about 70% made up with standard metrics and 30% off my own custom weights of what is important and how to factor things, so many cases when I say ‘data’ on the ratings or the Dashboard it’s actually weighing the things which I feel are most predictable/consistent to be factored in.
Jack Flaherty (FD/DK) – 84.45 rating
The Pirates do not strike out a ton vs RHP but Jack don’t care about that. He is an exception to the Pit/StL overs rule in that even though the Cardinals may score a ton of runs tonight, he is not going to be the reason this game goes over. This is a case of his stuff dominating the opponent and getting plenty of strikeouts to justify his price tag.
Shohei Ohtani (FD/DK) – 46.75 Rating
Ohtani has an elite level fastball and right now and given that he is more healthy this year we should be weighing that heavily. The Indians lefties (specifically Eddie Rosario) aren’t hitting the fastballs exceptionally well either so he should be able to build on a big strikeout upside to have a great game today. I can tell you his ranking is so low because he has walked 20 batters in just 25 2/3 IP and walks are deadly IMO for most pitchers but Ohtani has been able to get around this because he’s basically Neo from the Matrix and just turning around and striking guys out with one arm. Throw in that we have the potential for shadows in this game and he should deliver a really good outing. If you want to game stack SP here I fully endorse it with Civale vs a Trout less Angels and Ohtani likely getting pulled mid way through the game unless they slide him into the OF. I would stack Civale with Ohtani on DK only because we are playing for a lower scoring game in Anaheim tonight.
Clayton Kershaw – 73.35 rating
The forgotten man tonight might be Kershaw because he is coming off a couple starts which left bad taste’s in everyones mouth. He had the blow up inning in Wrigley, then the blowout short game in Anaheim and then last week he was spotted a ton of runs in the 2nd — which included him running the bases before he gave up 4 ER right after that. Kershaw isn’t pitching poorly and always gets better as the season moves into May/June/July when he is at his peak annually before slowing down. If he can get a quiet, boring game tonight we can see him go 7 strong innings, allowing almost no base runners and getting 7 strikeouts.
High Ranked Players I am avoiding
Max Scherzer — Max’s last few starts have been peak Max but heavy wind and warm temps in Wrigley spell a spot where he has too many trouble issues — like the game in Dunedin earlier this season.
Corbin Burnes — Royals took a swing early with choked up bats approach last night on Woodruff and it tells me they will try the same thing tonight on Burnes. He’ll be clean, but won’t match Jack/Kersh for strikeouts
John Means — Lefties have dominated Tampa, this one likely could bite me as I’m not a fan of how the Rays build their lineup today but I’ll be avoiding Means.
Zach Eflin — Eflin’s road ERA is near 5+ and his home ERA is much lower (3+ or so). But again, it’s warm here and Miami is like the Rays going into a park they’ve always hit well in.
The Cheap SP2’s – Do not touch!
Brad Keller, Logan Gilbert, Hyeon-Jong Yang
There are three guys who you might want to give some thought towards to make building lineups easier on DK. They are all the same tonight in that they should get between 7-12 points with -5 risk if things go sideways. I don’t see the need to look at Brad Keller (KC), Huge Yang (TEX) and Logan Gilbert but of the three Gilbert should be popular vs the Tigers and is just making his second start so he remains a fade for me. Huge Yang I can’t justify and Brad Keller seems to have the yips with Daniel Vogelbach and I do not in any way like him. So pass on all three for me, there are too many good pitchers going today.
ORIOLES – Good DK value
Mancini, Hays, Franco, Severino
Really like the Orioles tonight against Yar-bruh. It’s warm, they have three cheap bats here on DK to fit with the higher priced pitching and they hit LHP for power fairly well.
NATIONALS
Soto, Turner, Schwarber, Castro
I don’t see how we’re not locking in Juan Soto tonight, especially at his $4,000 price tag on FanDuel. Soto is a known oppo-field HR hitter, the wind is blowing out to left field and Jake Arrieta who he is 4-11 with a double and 2 HR against is the perfect pitcher for him to have a 4-11, 1 double, 2 HR history against. It should become 3 HR tonight and other Nationals to destroy sinkers include Turner, Schwarber and we might as well add in Starlin Castro for his revenge homer tonight too.
RED SOX
X, Verdugo, Renfroe, Devers
Boston is in a great park obviously but like last night the wind is blowing in off the coast and so there’s a lot of distracted dog looking at squirrel going on tonight as everyone looks at Wrigley or other areas. Boston remains a really good offense and getting Ross Stripling is never a bad thing even though he has some good games in him every once and a while. The Red Sox will need Devers, Verdugo, Renfroe to step up against the Stripper. Ross has allowed all his fastball HR to RHB this year and Xander is murdering RH with a .894 xSLG, 3 doubles and 4 HR in that split.
CATCHER
- Pedro Severino
- William Contreras
- Tom Murphy
FIRST BASE
- Trey Mancini
- Daniel Vogelbach
- Rowdy Tellez
SECOND BASE
- DJ LeMahieu – NY is chalk and bad chalk IMO. DJ however is just waiting to explode with a lead off HR.
- Matt Carpenter
- Mike Brosseaux – Can’t understand why you would bat him 9th, especially when they (yeah, the Rays deserve a pronoun for this horrible move) are going to likely pull him once the Orioles roll out a RHP out of the pen. 2 AB vs Means, he homers in 1 of them.
THIRD BASE
- Nolan
- Cavan Biggio – Would much rather spend $4500 on Biggio than $5400 on Ozzie given the difference in their approaches at the plate right now. Biggio has an xSLG boost of .199 over his L50 versus Ozzie is .024 in that same span.
- Maikel Franco
SHORTSTOP
Loaded position tonight.
- X gonna give it to ya
- Trea Turner
- Francisco Lindor
- Gavin Lux
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Juan Soto
- Kris Bryant
- Alex Verdugo
- Austin Hays
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Ronald Acuna Jr
- Hunter Renfroe
- Kyle Schwarber
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr
OUTFIELD – Value
- Kyle Lewis
- Avisail Garcia
The Dongers Club
- Juan Soto – OF – Nationals – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Trey Mancini – 1B – Orioles
- Pedro Severino – C – Orioles
- Mike Brosseaux – 2B – Rays
- Kris Bryant – 3B – Cubs
- Francisco Lindor – SS – Mets
- Austin Hays – OF – Orioles
- Avisail Garcia – OF – Brewers
- BONUS ………………… DJ LeMahieu – 2B – Yankees
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- Yankees
- Nationals
- Braves
Team(s) with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP (i.e. Low owned secondary stacks)
- Red Sox – Wind is blowing in here but this game is getting ignored too much on the BoSox side.
- Orioles
- Phillies
LEVERAGE STACKS
- Marlins
DK SE Recommendation
Flaherty & Ohtani
FD SE Recommendation
Kershaw
CORE HITTERS FOR SE
- High $$$: Juan Soto
- Mid $$: Trey Mancini/Austin Hays
- Low $: Avisail Garcia, Gavin Lux
FAVORITE ONE OFFS
- Mike Brosseaux – TB
- Avisail Garcia – MIL