If my math is correct this is the first 15 game Friday slate we have had all season long and it comes at a fabulous time. Yes, there is a Coors Field slate but it’s a nice divisional game between the Diamondbacks and the Rockies and with 15 games tonight you can get away from just plugging in that one spot. For me, I want to play more than one lineup tonight and one of the motivations I typically have for playing more than one lineup is alcohol, just being honest. But the wild reason is that I play spots I like and when there is more than one spot I will play it. The skill here (pssh, it’s not a skill, that’s the alcohol talking) is that on a regular 8 or 12 game slate I’m not one of those who likes the entire slate. But tonight, I got more than a few spots I like and so when I expect things to produce I will want to play them.
And the beer is nice too.
Also screw the Twins. Seriously. Your pro sports teams will never be shit. Your Basketball team pissed away Kevin Garnett and Stephon Marbury. Your Hockey team went up and fucking moved to Dallas Texas of all places, stealing your prized Madano and now you blow leads to the Knights (thank you BTW, in game +400 was sweeeet!) and your football team employs Kirk Cousins. The one god damn thing you had going for you? You murdered Progressive Field and Max Kepler can’t rub out his hamstring to play today? GFY….
5:45 UPDATE: Cruz Scratched. Kepler Back in. Lets go! Kepler-Sano-Kiriloff the core
WEATHER
All. Games. Play.
It’s warm too. It’s not quite sticky pants, sweat down the lower back of your shirt, fuck this I am moving to Canada hot yet, but it’s getting there.
There are six pitchers who are ranked up in the “top” three tiers today and they are: Trevor Bauer, Ian Anderson, Alex Wood, Tyler Glasnow, Aaron Nola, Mike Minor. Not only are these the top arms today but they’re all likely the most popular ones that we are concerned with debating around.
Alex Wood (DK: $10,000, FD: $9,100)
What if I told you that the LA Dodgers are the Detroit Tigers but with Mookie Betts instead of Robbie Grossman leading off? They are otherwise the same offense right now. My custom wOBA which is weighted based on top half of the lineup for L.A. is .258 compared to .333 for the Tigers. Both are pretty bad but the Dodgers lineup is still being ignored because of their name and people don’t realize that Justin Turner isn’t hitting right now and obviously we gotta factor in no Bellinger, no Seager and Muncy is as inconsistent as they come. Wood is pitching very well with good enough strikeout metrics to keep him in the running with the other top end arms today. He’s my favorite choice for a very good Giants team.
Mike Minor (DK: $7,500, FD: $7,500)
About those Tigers — they’re even worse against LHP and there’s not enough evidence to suggest they suddenly strikeout non and put a ton of runners on base tonight. Minor really started the season slowly but has pitched better of late and should have another really good performance against a bad team vs LHP.
Aaron Nola (DK: $11,600, FD: $9,000)
If we are going to get cute with a third choice today then let’s do it with someone who can ball out and not worry about their price that much. Nola’s going to be about 2% owned if that on DraftKings today and if you are in a smaller field single entry and want a 1:1 SP pivot then Nola over Bauer or Glasnow is your swap. Nola’s far superior at home, has 110 pitch capability given the Phils pen issues and Boston does lose the DH which reduces the boost of their overall lineup a little bit. We could see JD Martinez even get the night off today with the RHP on the mound and so he’s gotta worry about X and Devers, but neither really scare me today. 11.6k on DK isn’t where I’d want to shop tonight but I really do think Nola pitches a 30+ point gem.
Other SP Thoughts
Chris Paddack – Likely a chalk SP2 and Paddack should never be a chalk SP2. The Mariners are a good match-up for him yes and his price is low, so on DK he can be considered but I wouldn’t be sweating not having him. In fact, I would rather have Chris Flexen deez Nuts.
Marcus Stroman – 16 DK points. That’s his mark. Easily the least exciting thing in South Beach tonight.
James Kaprielian – Not on FD for some unknown reason? But no, don’t touch the rookie against Ohtani. I dont care of the other 8 Angels suck. No.
BEST LONGSHOT SP2
Jorge Lopez (BAL) … Just check the game logs. Last game was negative?? Yes. Ok, then he’s cleared for use.
Indians
Eddie Rosario – Jose Ramirez
[THIS COMMENTARY HAS BEEN DELETED UPON SEEING THE TWINS LINEUP. YOU WILL NEVER KNOW WHAT I WROTE NOW….]
Hope the Indians murder the Twins 13-3 and their shitty pitching staff which has a better chance of pitching an Ice subscription to Eskimo’s than they do of pitching a no hitter.
Brewers
Garcia/Cain, Wong, Yelich, Vogebach, Narvaez
Can a team give up double digit runs two games in a row? Hoffman had like one or two good starts and ya’ll thought this zebra was gonna change his stripes…. Or is it a Tiger who doesn’t change his stripes? Whatever… His fastball is basically his only pitch ange RHB are hitting .328 (I dont make this up guys, those are the real numbers, I swear!) off that with a .317 ISO. Load up on Avisail Garcia and maybe even old man LoCain to go yard here and there’s no reason to think the LHB won’t do well too. Brewers are a good 4 man stack.
Diamondbacks
Peralta/Rojas (or Pav Smith), CJ Cron/Blackmon
If you want to play Coors then 3 guys is the way to go on a 15 game slate with a ton of hitting options. Find the right mid range value from guys who are hitting in the top/middle of the order who you would also roster if they were in a good spot in a non Coors park.
This means we wouldn’t be playing Chris Owings (who is hurt) and we won’t be playing the Mexican version of Chris Owings which is Domingo Leyba. Thank you for coming, now lets find out who we should be playing here and why is it $4100 David Peralta on DK? Yes. Peralta/Rojas for the Diamondbacks and C.J. Cron even in the RvR for the Rockies.
Athletics
Peralta/Rojas (or Pav Smith), CJ Cron/Blackmon
Tonight’s big time sleeper late night hammer is Oakland going into Anaheim and facing Jose Quit-tryna-be-a-good-pitcher-na… It kinda rolls off the tongue and he’s going to not last long which means Matty Olson is definitely in play vs the bullpen. The A’s usually rake in Anaheim, which is a good hitting park and the Angels bullpen is a straight disaster situation. Cana, Laureano, Olson, Chapman and a dirt cheap Piscotty makes this an affordable 5 man stack for those donkey 5 man stackers.
Teams Severely Getting Overlooked
- Braves
- Phillies
CATCHER
- Omar Narvaez
- Yasmani Grandal
- Austin Nola – No vs SP narrative here but maybe he gets one off the pen?
FIRST BASE
- Jose Abreu
- Miguel Sano
- CJ Cron
- Daniel Vogelbach
SECOND BASE
30 teams. Zero second baseman I am salivating over.
- Jean Segura … The top play here. Phillies are getting overlooked against a bad LHP tonight.
- Luis Arraez
- Ketel Marte – If you can afford him, but don’t jam him in as a must. Doubt he’s heavily owned today given his price tag.
THIRD BASE
- Maikel Franco … Welcome Stephen Strasburg back to the season. You get to face Nationals Park Killer Maikel Franco who also … has killed Starsburg.
- Jose Ramirez
- Matt Chapman
- Yandy Diaz
SHORTSTOP
- Trea Turner
- Willy Adames
- Josh Rojas (FD – SS, DK – OF)
- Jorge Polanco
OUTFIELD – Tier 1
- Eddie Rosario
- Charlie Blackmon
- David Peralta
- Alex Kiriloff
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Randal Grichuk
- Jorge Soler
- Bryce Harper
- Ramon Laureano
OUTFIELD – Value
- Avisail Garcia / Lorenzo Cain
- Stephen Piscotty
- Anthony Santander
- Trevor Larnach
The Dongers Club
- Maikel Franco – 3B – Orioles – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Omar Narvarez – C – Brewers
- Eddie Rosario – OF – Indians
- David Peralta – OF – Diamondbacks
- Miguel Sano – 1B – Twins
- Willy Adames – SS – Rays
- Jean Segura – 2B – Phillies
- Ramon Laureano – OF – Athletics
- BONUS ……………. Jose Ramirez – 3B – Indians
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- Rockies / D’Backs- Bad offenses, so you don’t need 5 Rockies. Ever… 2-3 guys here.
- Nationals – Wrong side.
- Rays
Team(s) with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP (i.e. Low owned secondary stacks)
- The Atlanta Braves … You know, the team everyone has been stacking blindly for like a month now and just waiting… and waiting …. and waiting….
- Fuck the Twins
- Athletics
LEVERAGE STACKS
Not a ton of leverage on a 15 game slate and certainly not like on a four game slate. Your ‘leverage’ is just taking the lower owned teams above.
THREE ENTRY MAX STACKS
- Brewers/Coors
- Athletics
- Braves/Phillies/Cheap SP
DK SE SP Recommendation
- Alex Wood & Mike Minor
FD SE Recommendation
- Aaron Nola
CORE HITTERS FOR SE
- AZvCOL: Two guys of Peralta/Rojas/Blackmon/Cron
- Two of the one offs
FAVORITE ONE OFFS
- Maikel Franco
- Ramon Laureano
- Omar Narvaez
- Alex Kiriloff
BETS
- Brewers/Reds OVER 9
- Orioles/Nationals OVER 8.5
- Twins/Indians OVER 9
- Athletics/Angels OVER 9