Happy Testify Friday…. It’s going to rain….. Thanks for coming….. Fourteen games tonight because for some weird reason the Phillies/Rays DO NOT have a game tonight which just makes zero sense to me what so ever, but whatever. Let’s immediately get to the quick section which is figuring out what the rain situation is going to be for the remaining 13 games tonight.
These games have rain issues with pitchers that we might consider:
- Yankees at Tigers – Cole vs Mize
- Braves at Mets – Ian Anderson
These games have rain issues with NO pitchers that we would have considered … so what about the hitting?
- Marlins at Red Sox – In better weather we’d be on it
- Brewers at Nationals – No desire
- Blue Jays at Indians – Jays side vs rookie SP for Cleveland who profiles like Zach Davies
- Orioles at White Sox – No desire for this game which I do think has a chance to play
As a reminder the Dashboard tool will automatically pull games which are officially PPD within 15 minutes of getting the official announcement.
Walker Buehler
Walker is really priced up against a good team tonight but he’s A) at home and B) pitching on a Friday, so what more could we ask for tonight than to have Walker in his ideal split scenario? Buehler has turned into one of the most reliable and consistent arms in the game with six straight outings of quality production but none of them were blow your socks off dominant type starts. Given the rain issues tonight however we should gladly take his 22 point outing (DK) and move on. His FanDuel price is tough to stomach, but if you can make it fit, then he’s the safest non weather risk option out there.
Shohei Ohtani
For some reason he is not in the FanDuel player pool as a pitcher as of the time I right this. I want to trademark the phrase “For some reason, FanDuel …” by the way. Anyways, his velocity was indeed down last start but the extra day of rest might only help him out tonight. For a secondary pitcher on DK you can do a lot worse than Ohtani at $7,800 vs Oakland who in this split projects to nearly have a 23% strikeout rate and has gone cold of late + they’re not as potent when playing at home in Oakland. It’s Shohei or ride Manaea in the same game on the other side and I just don’t want Manaea ever.
Favorites from the rain games
- Gerrit Cole – He’ll take about 60% of ownership tonight if the game is clear. It’s a great match-up so no reason to hate playing him but tonight is more about SP2 than anything else.
- Hyun-Jin Ryu – This game doesn’t look great in Cleveland but if they’re clear Ryu would rank ahead of Ohtani for me
CARDINALS
Right back to the Cardinals tonight as the Goldy/Arenado big game is something I’ll chase all weekend but with Madison Bumgarner on the hill it seems to reason that Arenado is going to go yard after MadBum walks Goldschmidt. Goldy/Bum have history (friendly) when it comes to Bum walking Goldy.
MARINERS / Rangers
This game is the game of the night in my mind and every sign points to the Mariners having the more secure one offs while the Rangers are a full all or nothing play. Seattle’s RH boys Haniger/Kyle Lewis both pop off the charts for me today against Jordan Lyles who has allowed a +.200 ISO to RHB each of the last two seasons and overall has a 48% hard hit rate against him. Texas meanwhile has a harder match-up against Justus Sheffield, but when Sheff is off he’s walking too many guys and we could see lots of innings with multiple men on base and the Rangers offense is doing well enough right now to trust them as a sneaky 5 man stack.
ROYALS
I’m strongly looking to pair Cole + Buehler if I can find a way on DraftKings tonight and one of the spots that sticks out to me as great value is Kansas City vs a struggling Twins pitching staff. KC has hit well historically in Target Field, it’s a spot that Salvy and Santana have great numbers in but the key to this longshot play is Gutierrez-Mondesi-Soler in the bottom half of the order. Consider the Royals a nice value stack tonight to pair up Cole and Walker with.
CATCHER
- Yadier Molina
- Kurt Suzuki
- Salvador Perez
FIRST BASE
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Carlos Santana
SECOND BASE
- Josh Rojas
- Tommy Edman
- Nick Solak
THIRD BASE
- Nolan Arenado
- Anthony Rendon
- Kelvin Gutierrez
SHORTSTOP
- Adalberto Mondesi – Love the Royals this weekend, they are the sneaky stack of the night.
- Fernando Tatis Jr
- Nick Ahmed
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Mitch Haniger
- Ketel Marte
- Kyle Lewis
- Adolis Garcia
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- David Peralta
- Kyle Tucker
OUTFIELD – Value
- Brett Gardner
- Justin Upton
- Dylan Carlson
- Lane Thomas
Returning sometime this weekend
Cody Bellinger – Could return tonight, but more than likely he is back Saturday. His $3,300 price tag is just ridiculous because off name and talent alone he’ll automatically be at the top of everyone’s list. The Dodgers smacked around the Italian a week ago but I don’t love them to have another beat down tonight — that said, $3300 on a weak slate for Belli if he returns? Love it.
The Dongers Club
- Nolan Arenado – 3B – Cardinals – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Adalberto Mondesi – SS – Royals
- Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Cardinals
- Mitch Haniger – OF – Mariners
- Josh Rojas – 2B – Diamondbacks
- Kurt Suzuki – C – Angels
- Kyle Lewis – OF – Mariners
- Kyle Tucker – OF – Astros
- BONUS …………………………… Anthony Rendon – 3B – Angels
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- White Sox
- Twins
- Diamondbacks
Team(s) with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP (i.e. Low owned secondary stacks)
- Cardinals
- Astros
LEVERAGE PLAYS
- Royals … Dobnak could draw some chalk with lots of PPD games.
- Angels
DK SE SP Recommendations in Order
- Cole & Buehler
- Buehler & Ohtani
FD SE Recommendations in Order
- Buehler
- Cole