It’s a fine Sunday and just one double header today to watch out for and that’s between the Blue Jays and Indians. The weather still sucks considering it’s Memorial Day weekend and almost everyone has a day game tomorrow on Memorial Day for the holiday. Don’t ask me what the content plans are for tomorrow yet because looking at the schedule we have zero chance of getting site synchronicity tomorrow and it’s already stressing me out.
The only game that has major weather issues for PPD risk today is Miami at Boston. The Red Sox have managed to play through quite a few ugly rain games already this season and with the Marlins never coming back to Boston this season I could see them forcing their way through this game. It’s a very nice match-up for Eduardo Rodriguez but otherwise there’s no play in this game.
Max Scherzer
Scherzer vs Woodruff is a nice match-up and Max deserves the edge in this one because as bad as the Nationals offense is they’re not as bad when it comes to striking out as Woodruff is. Without seeing potential for teams to score 10+ runs today I think we take the safe route up top with pitchers getting a 30 point (or 60 on FD) today and Max is at the front of the line to do that. He should put up 10 strikeouts vs the Brewers and Washington will win this game.
Lucas Giolito
After a rough stretch you have to love the way Giolito is trending going into a game vs Baltimore with a banged up Trey Mancini. I talked about how Giolito had been unlucky this season the last time he was on the mound and we are seeing his numbers come back to where they should. On the season he’s allowed a .271 ISO to RH batters which is far worse than it has been the last two full seasons for Giolito and the Baltimore lineup has no RvR power outside of Mancini. He is questionable today but even if Trey suits up I would like Giolito here who’s still a tad underpriced as well on DK and could push to be the same ownership as Max on FD.
Kyle Freeland
While the Pirates do not strike out a ton and Freeland doesn’t strike out many either, this is more about seeing a $5,800 pitcher who I am extremely confident will win and can get a lot of quick ground ball innings to roll his way to a 14-15 point outing on DraftKings today. I’d rather go with Freeland than Mahle is going cheaper SP2.
This is the kind of slate where the chalk is fairly clear but it’s not very scary. What that means to me is that you can and should just throw all data analysis out the window today. Take the spreadsheets and place them in the fireplace, take all the ‘leverage’ thoughts out too because that’s not the situation either. Today is all about being comfortable placing your flag on a 5% owned stack that nobody is playing but they’re also not using a SP against. Let’s first cover what I mean when I say “these are the obvious spots” …
YANKEES
We can make fun of the Yankees all we want too, but if you are expecting them to get swept by Tarik Skubal and the Tigers then just limit your DFS entries today and go place a bet on the Tigers ML to win instead because that ROI is far better. If Stanton plays, he’ll be the #1 Yankee on the board for me and if he sits then it’s a mix of Urshela-Torress-Sanchez-Andujar. Judge is a FD play given his cheap price there.
TWINS / ROYALS
Both teams are fairly cheap and facing pitchers with blow up potential which is also going to make this somewhat of a popular stack today and your decision is either to roll with a leverage pitcher (Keller/Shoemaker) or ride the hitting. So you wanna go Keller/Shoemaker? I didn’t think so. Let’s get the first obvious part out of the way and that is Adalberto Mondesi is not homering two days in a row, but Carlos Santana is also not leaving Minnesota without a homer, so that clarifies the Royals side of the equation.
For the Twins everything is riding on if Kepler is back in the lineup after pulling up lame yesterday because he should lead off and see the ball well against Keller if he is in. Cruz is still hurt so he is a no, but Donaldson and Kiriloff would make out the rest of the Twins side of the house and it never hurts to have bottom of the order Twins exposure if you project them to be high scoring.
OK, so now where are those “hidden gems” … ?
Toronto Blue Jays
Everyone is going to overlook the Jays on a weak hitting slate because they’re in a 7 inning game, but Sam Hentges has been horrible and extremely weak against RH bats. Well, that’s all we got here from Toronto who also just happens to be arguably the best offense on the damn slate. Randal Grichuk is a must from Toronto today.
Update – So now Civale is going game one, still love Grichuk and don’t mind Jays still as Civale can be picked on — but it lessons the love with it being a 7 inning game.
Colorado Rockies
Weak offense against god awful pitching. Chase De Jong is opening for the Pirates and followed by Chad Kuhl? The Rockies might score more runs today than they do on the road the rest of the entire season.
Cincinnati Reds
Wrigley usually depends on the weather but it’s actually just normal today for a change. The wind is slightly in but the temps are clear and low to mid 60’s which today feels like a heat wave. Arietta vs Mahle, I think we could see some ownership on both (more Mahle on DK) but they each have major challenges in the opposing lineups in my mind and there’s lots of solo HR power here. For the Reds Suarez is doing extremely well in the lead off spot and Castellanos/Winker/Naquin look good as well. The Cubs are a bit pricey with Bryant being so expensive on DK but he figures to give Mahle fits and eventually Mahle is going to normalize back to sucking vs LHB as his cloak and dagger trick wear off which is big for Joc and Happ.
Tampa Bay Rays
Eflin struggles on the road and Meadows is white hot.
CATCHER
- Salvador Perez
- Tucker Barnhardt
- Victor Carantini
FIRST BASE
- Carlos Santana – Oye Como Va!
- Matt Adams
- Rowdy Tellez
SECOND BASE
- Jose Altuve
- Whit Merrifield
- DJ LeMahieu
THIRD BASE
This is the best position to get off the reservation today. In a DFS sport where everyone is gonna have two teams stacked together you’re essentially deciding today if you want Donaldson or Urshela here or do you go off with extremely high upside plays. I’ll take my gambles with some upside plays today as I expect all three of these names below to homer.
- Ryan McMahon
- Alex Bregman
- Manny Machado
SHORTSTOP
- Adalberto Raul Mondesi – No homer but hitting well and good steal upside vs Twins. Can move him to 2B as well which is weaker position today.
- Gleyber Torres
- Bo Bichette
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Randal Grichuk
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Max Kepler
- Nick Castellanos
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Charlie Blackmon
- Austin Meadows
- Kyle Schwarber
- Kris Bryant
- Bryan Reynolds
OUTFIELD – Value
- Randal Grichuk
- Andrew Benintendi
- Tyler Naquin
- Kyle Tucker
The Dongers Club
- Carlos Santana – 1B – Royals – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Yankees
- Ryan McMahon – 3B – Rockies
- Austin Meadows – OF – Rays
- Gleyber Torres – SS – Yankees
- Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros
- Tucker Barnhardt – C – Reds
- Randal Grichuk – OF – Blue Jays
- BONUS …………………………. Matt Adams – 1B – Rockies
BETS
- Rays / Phillies OVER 7.5
- Orioles / White Sox UNDER 8.5
- Nationals ML
- Blue Jays ML in Game 1
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- White Sox
- Yankees
- Twins
Team(s) with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP (i.e. Low owned secondary stacks)
- Blue Jays
- Reds
- Royals
LEVERAGE PLAYS
- Rays
- Cubs
DK SE SP Recommendations in Order
- Max & Giolito
- Max & Freeland
FD SE Recommendations in Order
- Giolito
- Max
CORE PLAYS
- Carlos Santana
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Randal Grichuk