Happy Memorial Day. May you honestly have a fantastic Monday today and I’m excited about the Summer plans here at The Daily Ambush. An announcement newsletter of things to come over the next few months should be coming out tomorrow for all to read and I am glad you are here. Let’s win some damn money.
Today the slates are looking pretty pretty good as we have a big afternoon slate which locks at 1:00 PM EST on both sites. There are two games which are not in sycnrhonicity between the two sites but both are covered here in the article.
- White Sox at Tribe – Playing a DH as a make up from an earlier rain out, the first game (Rodon vs McKenzie) is included only on DraftKings
- Nationals at Braves – This game is only on FanDuel as it’s a 5:00 PM EST game.
I am treating today like a Sunday and thus there will not be an article for the small 3 game slate this evening but we can discuss it over in Discord and talk about how we are stacking the Royals-Pirates game which is on ESPN in prime time.
WEATHER
Much better weather forecast coming this week. There are still some rain concerns but the temperatures are back into the 70’s and 80’s this week which is a great thing. As far as today is concerned, all games play without issue and I believe all roofs will be open
Corbin Burnes
Burnes is one of the best pitchers in the game at getting hitters to swing and miss at pitches out of the zone and the Tigers should be more than willing to do that today. He’s had a CSW% over 30% in every start this season and even managed to get 7 strikeouts on 95 pitches against a very disciplined Padres team in his last start. Against Detroit today he’s the most secure pitcher on the board that we have and if he just pitches his game he’ll have 12 strikeouts over 6 innings and probably a 5-0 lead to boot…
Carlos Rodon (DK)
Something about facing Cleveland always brings out the best in Rodon and that has been the case with the lefty even prior to his breakout year this season. He has faced Cleveland 19 times, which is twice as many as any other team and sports a really good 2.65 ERA which when we consider how erratic Rodon was before breaking out recently is quite impressive. All that is thrown out the window however because it’s about who he faces today and this lineup even with a few 4-A players who just happen to hit lefties (ahem, Luplow) is not that threatening. Jose Ramirez flips to his weaker side, Franmil Reyes is injured and with this being a 7-inning game we have a great upside chance that Rodon notches a CGSO over 7 innings on DraftKings today.
He has to be considered on DK as the SP2 choice because there isnt a clear value arm to consider so just take the guy with the most upside. Rodon’s equal to Burnes in terms of his strikeout rates but the Indians aren’t as good of a match-up as the Tigers, so lock in Burnes and try to get Rodon.
Johnny Cueto
This Angels team is now one of the targets to pick on and this game looks to have the most likely spots for a mid range or cheaper SP2 between Cueto and Bundy. The advantage is with Cueto however because the Giants lineup is just too good to pick on compared to what the Angels will be rolling out if they decide to sit Ohtani without the DH. If Ohtani plays that really drops down Cueto in my book, but the Angels likely will rest him in this game today and that makes Cueto the top mid range option to consider.
Looking ahead at the series this week and one theme really jumped out at me. Teams who have been cold or struggling are going to start to get right. It’s a get right week and while the Yankees might feel like the obvious team to get right I am looking at them not getting right until the end of the week.
PHILLIES (& Reds)
The Phillies play in a relatively small ballpark themselves, but it’s not as small as Cincinnati and they’ve got a good lineup against lefty pitchers. Wade Miley shocked everyone with his no hitter because you know what, he isn’t a guy who should be missing a ton of bats and avoiding base runners. All the good numbers he had from that one start are gonna go buh-bye today when he’s knocked out by the third inning in the highest scoring game on the slate.
TWINS (& Orioles)
Not much else cures a team like the Orioles pitching staff in Camden Yards. Maybe Donaldson will start to feel like his old self instead of complaining about pitchers cheating with their grips. Maybe Nelson Cruz’s hand will finally start to feel better. Maybe Max Kepler’s legs got a nice rub while on the flight to BWI airport. Maybe Mitch Garver returns to his 2019 one hit wonder…. All these maybe’s remind me of that song “Call me Maybe” which the Dolphins Cheerleaders did a cover video on once. It was tremendous. Anyways, the not so maybe in this spot has to be Alex Kiriloff who is gonna be like a kid in a candy store for the first time as he makes his Camden Yards debut and drops one onto Eutaw street. The Twins get to grace our lineups with their presence in the second highest scoring game on the slate (yes, Baltimore is gonna produce too).
NATIONALS
A game in Atlanta that starts at 5pm is definitely not something that is normal so I’m not 100% sure if we have any shadows but then it is the end of May so I don’t think we’ll have to worry about that very much. If you are on FanDuel today you gotta have some Nationals as they’re going to wake up and smack Charlie Morton around. Welcome to the Turner-Soto show.
CATCHER
We might not want to spend up at catcher with two quality SP’s taking up about 20k of salary on DraftKings, but JT Realmuto on FanDuel is just a take it and move on and really if when he does homer on DK you’ll feel good about spending 5100 here too.
- JT Realmuto
- Pedro Severino
- Kurt Suzuki
FIRST BASE
- Rhys Hoskins
- Alex Kiriloff – 1B Elig on DK, thin position so better to use him here unless you also have Sano from a Twins stack
- Mitch Moreland
SECOND BASE
- Jorge Polanco
- Stevie Wilkerson … Imagine, it’s like 3:05 PM and you are about to go fire up the grill and you get a notification that Stevie Wilkerson just hit a solo HR. You turn to your kids and say, hey, look at me, who has two thumbs and a Stevie Wilkerson home run…. That’s right. Then they just look at you and say that’s great Dad, give me money. But it’s okay — because you have Stevie Wilkerson in your lineup still for that 7th inning bases loaded AB where he grounds out to first.
- Jean Segura
THIRD BASE
- Alec Bohm
- Josh Donaldson
- Kyle Seager
SHORTSTOP
- Trea Turner – FD
- Freddy Galvis
- Kyle Farmer – DK Value
- Xander Bogaerts – DK Spend up
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Anthony Santander
- Juan Soto – DK
- Andrew McCutchen
- Jesse Winker? I hardly know her!
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Nelson Cruz
- Kyle Tucker
- Nicholas Castellanos
OUTFIELD – Value
- Seth Brown
- Tyler Naquin
- Alex Dickerson
- Wil Myers
- Rob Refsnyder
The Dongers Club
- Jesse Winker – OF – Reds – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Stevie Wilkerson – 2B – Orioles
- Mitch Moreland – 1B – Athletics
- Alex Kiriloff – OF – Twins
- Trea Turner – SS – Nationals
- Alec Bohm – 3B – Phillies
- JT Realmuto – C – Phillies
- Tyler Naquin – OF – Reds
- BONUS …………………………… Rob Refsnyder – OF – Twins
BETS
- Orioles / Twins OVER 9
- Phillies / Reds OVER 8.5
- Rays / Yankees UNDER 8.5
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- Twins
- Padres
Team(s) with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP (i.e. Low owned secondary stacks)
- Phillies
- Nationals (FD)
LEVERAGE PLAYS
- Orioles vs Berrios
DK SE SP Recommendations in Order
- Burnes & Rodon
- Burnes & Cueto
FD SE Recommendations in Order
- Burnes
CORE PLAYS
- Kiriloff, Winker, Wilkerson