Welcome to the largest Saturday slate of the season. We have the day when MLB essentially made every team play an afternoon game and this is honestly how it should be at least once a month on Saturday afternoons if I were in charge. But there are some major odd situations going on today from a scheduling standpoint so lets fill you in if you are not aware.
- The Giants and Nationals are playing a double header today, the first game at 2PM isn’t available anywhere (good) and the second game is on a DK night slate – both will be 7 innings only.
- There are 11 games which begin between 4:05 and 4:10 PM EST. Shockingly FanDuel not only included them all on one slate, they also included all the games after that (except SF/WSH)
- So we have a 14 game MAIN slate from FanDuel today.
- DraftKings kept just the 11 games at the 4PM window for it’s MAIN slate and then has a smaller night (tilt) slate for the other 3 & 1/2 games. I will not have an article for that evening slate.
Here are the games that are NOT included on DraftKings but ARE included on FanDuel
- Houston at Minnesota
- St. Louis at Chicago
- Texas at LA Dodgers
So the really weird thing about this schedule is that we have all these day games and yet Wrigley has a night game and Chase Field has a Saturday afternoon game which I honestly do not remember the last time that actually happened. Furthermore, Miami and Tampa, two spots known for that odd 6PM evening start have 4PM games. Can’t wait to be the pitcher who gets to face those road teams tomorrow. Oh, and the Yankees/Phillies are back after their mental health day off yesterday, or whatever they got by not playing a Friday night game.
No weather issues today
Trevor Bauer (FD only)
Bauer pitches tonight at 10pm and will be the late night hammer on FanDuel for many. I mean the game starts 6 hours after the first game on FanDuel today, but tomorrow we’ll have 5 slates I’m sure on Sunday and then we cant dare include 6:45 games on a weeknight on the main slate because how dare we force people to set their lineups 15 minutes earlier. Oof. Bauer is the top option on FanDuel even at $11k and even with the spin rate controversies that are out there. Texas strikes out way too much for him to not have a productive outing and the book on beating Bauer is seeing him frequently and being very patient at the plate. Neither of which Texas has going for them and any Joey Gallo HR that happens will be offset by his 10 strikeout day.
Corbin Burnes
We have to like Burnes on DK today but once again the Pirates are not a high strikeout team because they swing early to put the ball in play, however without anyone else up top on DK that really matches his potential he is the #1 arm there and I trust him more than Musgrove (vs Mets) and Cease facing the Tigers a second time in a week who are right below him. If you have guts, trust Chad Kuhl on the other side to pitch well in a SP game stack (although Yelich will go yard).
Max Fried
I think I mentioned a few starts back for Fried how he had been relatively unlucky early in the year and missing some time due to injury didn’t help. If I didn’t write that before then lets just assume I did because I swear I did. That’s started to normalize itself out and his overall numbers are adjusting back to his historical trends. Today against Miami we’re looking at team that’s top 5 have a near 28% strikeout rate against LHP, carry a really low xWOBA and ISO and all their prior history that was good against Fried has come in Truist park.
Also OK:
Dylan Cease … Should win, should pitch well.
Rich Hill … Baltimore playing well lately and especially vs LHP. I don’t see as big of a K upside game because of that so he ranks lower.
Sleeper Arm of the Day
Alex Cobb … If you want to take some gambles on pitching today I see potential for a low scoring game in Chase Field. Cobb has been pitching well recently and with the roof closed should benefit from the large outfield in Chase and he is doing really well to limit damage from lefties — which is a good portion of what Arizona rolls out today. Caleb Smith is a bigger gamble on the other side as the Angels are worse vs LHP but Justin Upton & Max Stassi are two bats I like so he is a no. Cobb is the sleeper arm of the day with Chad Kuhl being #2.
Rockies vs Reds
Cron/Story/Naquin/Castellanos
After an explosion last night I expect nothing less today again. It’s well into the 90’s, wind is slightly blowing out to right and Marquez/Miley at times might have good games but both offenses are playing well right now and there’s a couple match-ups that look amazing here. Trevor Story/CJ Cron from the Rockies are why Wade Miley is not going to pitch well along with a very right handed heavy lineup for Colorado, which may not be full of really good hitters but this is basically like being in Coors Field in many ways for the Rockies given how small GABP is.
Marquez being a known ground baller will shy some away from the Reds, however they’re the best home hitting offense in the league and Castellanos/Naquin for the Reds pose disaster for German. I like Colorado to win another high scoring game but do not overlook the Cincy side.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox
Bichette/Hernandez/Vlad/JD Martinez
The Blue Jays are my #1 stack on FanDuel today against Pivetta. Bichette/Vlad/Teoscar, thanks for coming…
Boston is likely without Xander Bogaerts today which is a big hit to their lineup but JD Martinez is hitting better of late and is one of the premiere OF to consider. With Xander out we look at value options like Renfroe, Vasquez, Kike and Dalbec to add on with JD.
Phillies
Harper/Herrera/Hoskins
Recency bias is going to be DEAD WRONG on this game as the Yankees come in off a hot series in Minnesota but it’s the Phillies bats against Jameson Taillon who have the best HR upside. Sure, Vincent Velasquez isn’t someone I normally trust but neither should Taillon be who also gives up lots of long balls (1.55 HR/9), and is very weak against LHB, so happy Harper/Herrra day and this one has the makings of a Phillies 8-4 win.
Chalk Stack I’m Fading
Chicago White Sox
Chicago is going to be pretty popular given their vegas total and that’s what drives heavy ownership. The good reason for them to be chalk is that they’re seeing Jose Urena again, but the bad reason is that the lineup is dead right now unless Tim Anderson/Yoan Moncada get going. So if you ride Chicago you have to have those two along with Abreu and some bottom of the order value. I prefer the other spots over Chicago and will hope we get half way decent Urena today.
Best Value on DK
Seattle Mariners
Seager/Crawford/Haniger
After getting shut down last night I am going right back to the Mariners well against Triston McKenzie. The good news is they have seen him before, and this is a very valuable stack on DraftKings today in a spot I believe they will still walk away with a good weekend when it’s all said and done. Buy low on the Mariners.
CATCHER
- Tucker Barnhardt
- Yasmani Grandal
- Max Stassi
FIRST BASE
Anytime we can get CJ Cron vs a LHP in a small ballpark we don’t over think things. I will have both CJ Cron and Rhys Hoskins together on FanDuel where I can play two 1B.
- CJ Cron
- Rhys Hoskins
- Jose Abreu
SECOND BASE
- Jonathan India
- Brandon Lowe
- Jed Lowrie
THIRD BASE
If you can afford Bregman on FD after filling in other parts (i.e. you pay down on SP) then do it. Otherwise take the Kyle Seager LiC chances and move on or ride chalky Moncada.
- Alex Bregman
- Kyle Seager
- Yoan Moncada
SHORTSTOP
- Trevor Story
- Bo Bichette
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
There is a clear CORE group of stud OF today that you will need to have one of and honestly I don’t think it matters which one you pick – but these are all one off studs who look fantastic
- Harper, Bryce … Phillies of these four teams fly under the radar the most today and has the most upside.
- J.D. Martinez … Cant play Boston without JD
- Aaron Judge … Don’t like Yankees outside of Judge
- Christian Yelich … Dont like Brewers outside of Yelich
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Nick Castellanos / Tyler Naquin (The $2200 savings on Naquin over Winker is a no brainer)
- Mark Canha
- Mitch Haniger
OUTFIELD – Value
- Hunter Renfroe
- Jake Lamb
- Odubel Herrera
- Justin Upton
- Abraham Almonte
The Dongers Club
- CJ Cron – 1B – Rockies – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Bryce Harper – OF – Phillies
- Brandon Lowe – 2B – Rays
- Trevor Story – SS – Rockies
- Tyler Naquin – OF – Reds
- Christian Yelich – OF – Brewers
- Kyle Seager – 3B – Mariners
- Tucker Barnhardt – C – Reds
- BONUS ………………… Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Blue Jays
BETS
- Pirates/Brewers UNDER 7.5
- Phillies ML
- Phillies/Yankees OVER 9.5
- Rockies/Reds OVER 9
- Padres/Mets OVER 7 … But not enough for DFS
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
THE HIGHEST CHALK STACK(S)
Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, Athletics
LOW(er) OWNED GOOD TEAMS
Phillies, Blue Jays, Reds
LEVERAGE STACKS
Phillies, Rockies
DK PITCHERS
- Burnes & Fried
- Fried & Cobb
- Burnes & Kuhl
FD PITCHERS
- Bauer
- Fried
- Cobb
CORE HITTERS
CJ Cron
Trevor Story
Tyler Naquin