An eight game Thursday slate which I honestly believe has 7.5 good offensive spots in it tonight. The most likely non offensive outburst game is between the Cubs and the Mets and even that one will have some juice and entertainment in it tonight. Brace yourselves for the offense.
WEATHER
Rinse and repeat, the weather is very neat.
Marcus Stroman
I’ll once again attack the Cubs offense on the road and this time with a ground ball pitcher I have some faith that Stroman can get 7 innings tonight – and on this slate that is top billings.
Shohei Ohtani (DK)
He would easily rank as #1 if we had confidence he would pitch long. The match-up vs the Tigers is very strong as Detroit is basically beating the Royals and nobody else, so expect Ohtani to cruise with a big strikeout night today but we just don’t know if he can give us 18 outs. However, with him being $11,000 on FanDuel and likely still on a short leash you should only be considering him on DK tonight.
Leverage Pitcher
German Marquez
Marquez has been known to pitch okay at home and being a heavy ground ball guy that typically plays better in Coors Field. This is a weird pitching slate and while nobody can deny Woodruff has better strikeout numbers he also grades very poorly in terms of K% against the Rockies and being in altitude I can see there being some issues for him. So if we aren’t chasing strikeouts then we want a lineup who just doesn’t get on base a ton and that would most certainly be the chalky Brewers. It’s Leverage Thursday (totally just made that saying up but it feels like the right day to do it) so Marquez as solid leverage against the popular Brewers is a fine SP option today.
Cautious with
Rich Hill … From day one with this grip drama on the Baseball’s I have said that we’re gonna see more “blisters” start to appear for guys who can’t quite get the right grip they want on the Baseball anymore, and nobody more than Rich Hill to pinpoint for that. On paper the Mariners look like a great target since they’re striking out a ton (Top 6 guys nearly 30% on his pitchtypes), can’t hit very well (0.328 xWOBA) and Mitch Haniger is banged up. That said, notice Rich Hill’s last start — it wasn’t that clean, and be VERY VERY cautious with him tonight. He’s my #1 fade.
Matt Manning … He is my #2 fade because rules are rules. Big tall righty who throws hard and is able to adjust his velocity down with a good change-up as well. But even Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine struggled in their early part of their careers. Which I know that sounds like some idiot on a livestream saying “Hey, even Mike Trout can go 0-4!”, yeah well Mike Trout hasn’t gone 0-4 in over a month, so stick that in your sandwhich and slice it. Wait, where was I going here? Oh, right, we don’t use rookie pitchers making their debut — especially vs Ohtani!
I am almost surely to be pretty contrarian tonight. The top “run total” teams tonight are going to wind up being the Yankees, Astros, Blue Jays, Brewers and Braves — not necessarily in that order because run totals actually adjust every minute up until the game starts and then guess what, they actually change during the fucking game themselves. Has anyone actually ever pointed out how fraudulent of a metric or made up statistic this is to evaluate teams and players because of how its calculated? Take the win probability, do some basic 5th grade math with it against the over/under on a game and there you go, you have this bullshit metric that everyone wants to use as a reason why a team is going to score or not score. But in reality, by the third inning a teams run total will drastically change because guess what, THESE ARE DYNAMIC NUMBERS FOR BETTING PURPOSES! Anyways… You have to be good at fading teams in good spots to win in DFS, and tonight presents that and given that all but one game yesterday went OVER, I think it’s safe to say that we’re into the tired bullpen part of the season across the Majors — which means lots of offense everywhere and you don’t need “Implied Run Total Team X”…
ST LOUIS CARDINALS
Remember that time the Cardinals put up like 9 runs in the first inning and ruined Folty’s career in Truist Park? Welcome back to Atlanta, St. Louis and welcome to the Paul DeJong part of the season.
RAYS
The Rays on the road in a ‘decent’ park vs a pitcher who can be wild and very up and down. The Rays along with the Cardinals either go boom or bust but with Justin Dunn I’ll err on the side of boom from Meadows, Lowe, Choi and that catcher who used to play for Seattle too
FANTASTIC LEVERAGE PLAYS
REDS
Winker, Naquin, Votto, Suarez
I have had this series circled all week and I think this wins a big tournament tonight if you have the guts to trust it. The Reds lefties are going to rake in PETCO and give Musgrove a big scare tonight.
SNEAKY GAME STACK
WHITE SOX vs ASTROS
At the bottom of the article I normally list teams that are getting overlooked but also not attacked with SP’s. This game is that tonight. Both Cease and Urquidy have pitched well this season but I don’t think anyone is going to use them (Houston doesn’t K and White Sox are showing good hitting signs lately). Yet I would be shocked if either team came in over 5% owned and both Yordan Alvarez and Tim Anderson are top tier plays for me today. This game has 8-7 potential with 6 or 7 homers in it — especially if the roof opens up.
Play a second lineup tonight that stacks this game.
CATCHER
- Mike Zunino … Dead last on my model at Catcher as of when I wrote this, might rest today too, but is back in Seattle so he’s going to do annoying things.
- Max Stassi
FIRST BASE
Could certainly roll Freeman here again as part of an Atlanta build, but I’m on the other side in that game so give me Goldy if touching on a stack play. Votto loves PETCO, must be the Mexican women.
- Joey Votto
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Jared Walsh
SECOND BASE
- Brandon Lowe
- Dylan Moore
- Ozzie Albies … Yo, this thing on? Hello? McFly???
- Luis Urias … Alright, so 2B sucks today, he is $4000 and probably will wind up leading off, go 0-3 and then walk and then hit some garbage triple to drive in 3 runs in the top of the 9th.
THIRD BASE
- Nolan
- Austin Riley
- Eugenio Suarez
SHORTSTOP
- Paul DeJong
- Francisco Lindor … The signs for a huge game are there, probably will come on the road so I was a little too bullish on him last night, but just wanted to pass this along so when I randomly make him the BONUS play in the Dongers Club on say, oh, I dunno, Sunday, you lock him in for that double dong. For now, he’s slowly producing and is $4100 so a very solid play once again.
- Carlos Correa
- Tim Anderson
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Austin Meadows
- Tyler O’Neill
- Yordan Alvarez
- Charlie Blackmon
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Avisail Garcia
- Nick Castellanos
- Jesse Winker
- Mitch Haniger … Someone has to hit Hill, right?
OUTFIELD – Value
- Abraham Almonte … Dude, fix his price. He won’t sustain production, but he will hit for a couple weeks here.
- Akil Baddoo
- Wil Myers
The Dongers Club
- Paul DeJong – SS – Cardinals – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros
- Joey Votto – 1B – Reds
- Austin Meadows – OF – Rays
- Brandon Lowe – 2B – Rays
- Nolan Arenado – 3B – Cardinals
- Tyler ONeill – OF – Cardinals
- Rays Catcher
- BONUS ………………… Dylan Moore – 2B/OF – Mariners
BETS
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
THE HIGHEST CHALK STACK(S)
Brewers, Yankees, Braves
LOW(er) OWNED GOOD TEAMS
Cardinals, Rays
LEVERAGE STACKS/PLAYS
Reds
DK PITCHERS
Ohtani and Stroman
FD PITCHERS
Stroman
CORE HITTERS
Paul DeJong
Nolan Arenado
Yordan Alvarez
Tyler O’Neill