A new week kicks off with just six games on this Monday evening and the six series we have starting up tonight that are on the DFS slate(s) could not be easier to rank in terms of expected offense:
- Astros at Orioles
- Reds at Twins
- Diamondbacks at Brewers
- Dodgers at Padres
- Indians at Cubs
- Athletics at Rangers
I have been looking into some home/road splits now that we are deep enough into the season and as expected the Texas Rangers are one of the worst teams hitting at home compared to on the road. This isn’t shocking in the least bit given how poorly their new ballpark has played for offense, especially with the roof closed. However, I have basically gotten enough data confirmation on the five new stadiums in 2021 that added a humidor, and those stadiums are (per Boog Sciambi):
- Texas, Miami, St. Louis, Houston and Buffalo(*Sahlen Field for Toronto*)
Now mind you, the other stadiums with humidors are Colorado, Arizona, Seattle, Boston and New York (Mets). And four of those typically do play well for offense when the weather is good and I think humidors in general are overblown but nobody is going to deny that it takes a little distance off the ball and when you dive into those specific teams home players we have seen a consistent drop off in distance. Doesn’t mean offense drops entirely, but it is worth noting. Oh, and the Astros and Red Sox by the way are striking out a ton less at home this year…. Nothing to see here.
WEATHER
There are no major major weather issues tonight.
The Astros are at Baltimore (fun!) and it will be humid there as some storms pass through and around the area, but it’s all fairly light and we have minimal risk of PPD in my mind.
Frankie Montas
Just take what I wrote above about Texas having a humidor, add it to the Rangers pathetic offense and just wrap this up into a nice big Frankie Montas 30 point game. Alright, maybe he won’t be that dominant today but he should be fairly close to it. With Darvish having to face Urias and the Dodgers today, we have Montas as a heavy chalk SP1 that you just don’t need to get cute with.
Adbert Alzolay
This is the second lowest ranked offensive game on my list today because we have a night game in Wrigley with blah weather conditions and the Indians scuffling offense with an injured Jose Ramirez questionable. Give me Adbert facing the weaker offense and with better overall stuff on the season, however Civale is not a bad game stack option here as well and something I would strongly consider doing tonight.
Jake Odorizzi
Eggs is cheap but should fare well enough against the Orioles that he merits our consideration tonight. I would monitor when we think pop up storms could come around Camden Yards as that could bump him, and I would expect him to maybe serve 1 or 2 HR up but the Orioles strike out a TON vs RHP. He is a great correlation with Astros hitters tonight as well because he offers up salary relief.
Fade
Yu Darvish
ASTROS
Something, Something, Keegan Akin is fat …
Something, Something, Orioles Bullpen
Something, Something, Leverage vs the 80% chalk
Something, Something, Carlos Correa and what he had for breakfast…
Something, Something, probably just shouldn’t play …
…
ok, in all seriousness, the only way the Astros fail is if they are asleep coming off a beat down of the White Sox and take the Orioles too lightly tonight. Even then, Correa is a must own here with SS being so bleak tonight and his form being so good. Altuve is on fire as well but Brantley/Alvarez and if he is back from his stomach bug Tucker are the guys who will drive this engine over the top.
TWINS vs REDS
Play Nick Castellanos from the Reds. Otherwise do not pass go, do not collect $100. He comes in on a little bit of a cold streak but against a lefty like J.A. Happ he should be able to pick and choose what he wants today to have a multi-hit game with high 4-0 ball game upside.
Meanwhile, very quietly the Twins are getting healthy. Nelson Cruz look more than fine right now, Byron Buxton is back and raking, Max Kepler is back and soon to start hitting and Luis Arraez is very comfortable in the lead off spot so lets hope they keep him there for now. If Josh Donaldson returns soon as expected too then we can see the Twins maybe go on a little run, which would be good enough for them to hopefully snag some value for their veteran hitters that they should be trading away immediately. They’ll welcome on Tyler homer-prone Mahle tonight and have enough slugging ability to do some damage on him despite striking out every other AB in between homers.
DIAMONDBACKS
Here… We… Go…. The Diamondbacks are 26.5 games out of first place… It’s June 21st! They have lost 17 in a row. Yes, 17! I remember late March saying to myself, holy fuck, why are we making fun of the Pirates so much have you looked at the Diamondbacks roster? They’re horrible! But this is beyond that, they’re actually hitting one day, then pitching well the next and yet they cannot fucking win a game. The last time they won a game was June 1st when they had to come back in the bottom of the 9th just to force extra innings. The last time they won back to back games was when they beat the Marlins on May 10th and 11th and I don’t even remember those games actually happening. The last time they won on the road was April 25th when they swept a double-header from the Braves in which Madison Bumgarner threw a 7 inning no hitter in the first game. How pathetic should the Braves feel right now?
So what does any of this have to do with playing the Diamondbacks tonight at home vs Milwaukee? Not a damn thing other than fucking Law of Averages has to kick in at some point with these guys does it not? We have the Diamondbacks on a 17 game losing streak. We have Brett Anderson who is a lefty Pitcher in Chase Field (not good!) and is coming off the ultimate rabbit out of his ass game last week when his K prop was 3.5 and he struck out the entire Reds lineup and maybe just maybe they open the roof even though it is 107 degrees in Arizona (ok, so the roof is likely closed).
Anderson off a 32 point outing is due to go back to a -9.
Arizona is due.
Bet Zona.
Stack Zona.
Rattle On!
CATCHER
- Martin Maldanado – Road catchers in Camden
- Omar Narvaez – Road catchers in Chase
- Tyler Stephenson
- Will Smith – For you HR prop folks….
FIRST BASE
- Christian Walker … I can’t see Arizona winning without Walker having a homer.
- Matt Olson
- Yuli Gurriel
SECOND BASE
- Jose Altuve
- Eduardo Escobar
- Kolten Wong
THIRD BASE
- Asdrubal Cabrera
- Eugenio Suarez
- Josh Donaldson
SHORTSTOP
- Carlos Correa
- Whatever the opto says if you ignore me.
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Nick Castellanos
- Yordan Alvarez
- Michael Brantley
- Nelson Cruz
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Christian Yelich
- Anthony Santander
- Kris Bryant
- Ketel Marte
OUTFIELD – Value
- Alex Kiriloff
- Max Kepler
- Aristides Acquino
The Dongers Club
- Nick Castellanos – OF – Reds – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Carlos Correa – SS – Astros
- Nelson Cruz – OF – Twins
- Christian Walker – 1B – Diamondbacks
- Will Smith – C – Dodgers
- Eugenio Suarez – 3B – Reds
- Yordan Alvarez – OF – Orioles
- Eduardo Escobar – 2B – Diamondbacks
- BONUS ………………….. Anthony Santander – OF – Orioles
BETS
- Diamondbacks, Dodgers, LAD/SD Over 7, Astros Parlay
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
THE HIGHEST CHALK STACK(S)
Houston and Cincinnati, by a mile.
LOW(er) OWNED GOOD TEAMS
Twins
LEVERAGE STACKS/PLAYS
Dodgers (Nobody will have hitters in this game which is going to go OVER the 7) and it’s probably a tough path with Reds/Astros being in great spots, but I love the over on this game and think the Dodgers hit Darvish (Turner/Smith)
DK PITCHERS
Montas and Odorizzi
Montas and Adzolay
FD PITCHERS
Montas, Odorizzi
CORE HITTERS
Nick Castellanos
Yordan Alvarez
Carlos Correa
Christian Walker