All the games as we have all 30 teams in play tonight and all the warm weather as we have games in the mid-90’s with it feeling like it’s near 100 in spots where it shouldn’t feel like a 100. Granted, it is the end of June so I am not sure what everyone is all shocked about. It’s hot. A slate like tonight might seem overwhelming and it does take a little big longer to go through all the areas to identify what to do. Some will just open up a website and look at implied run totals and chime off “these teams have the highest implied total tonight so …”
Do they now.
That’s fascinating. It’s also terrible data to consider when breaking things down and I have said this for years that it’s horrific analysis to just recommend based off implied run total. It’s also horrific advise to just identify the chalk lineups and play off ownership entirely — especially on huge slates like tonight. I went through each game putting it into the Tier1/Tier2/Tier3 type categories that I always do to filter out which games/teams will make the cut and which ones we will ignore. If every game itself was a showdown game tonight I would be able to identify some hitting plays from each game, but we’re not gonna do that for a full slate because if a game is a push or a weak spot then we cross it off. If a game has value in it, we included it, even if its over/under is lower than another game that just happens to be on the slate.
WEATHER & STUFF
Tigers at Indians — Rain/Storms
Don’t say I didn’t warn ya on last night. But boy it went even worse than I thought with a couple guys getting to good levels and then the negative double digit score from rookie Matt Manning. Things are not much better tonight but we should be able to avoid the -11.
Brandon Woodruff
The Cubs lineup will strikeout a ton against Woody as they usually have in the past. He’s dominant at home and even at his $11k price tag has really good upside today.
James Kaprielian
A re-match from a week ago when we rostered both sides of this matchup between Kaprielian and Foltynewicz, which as long as they face against each other is without a doubt the Alphabet Soup match-up of the season with those last names. Going back home to Oakland really isn’t much of a park shift considering how bad Texas plays with the roof closed but it does help both guys and I trust picking on the Rangers lineup a second time more than I would trust Folty against the Athletics. For his $8,000 price he has to be among our top DraftKings options tonight.
Lucas Giolito
Exact same analysis on Giolito as yesterday when he was PPD but with a few more choices today he isn’t as high up on the list…. I doubt we see a high strikeout game here from Giolito as the Twins top 6 batters do not project with a high K% against his arsenal, but they also do not possess a ton of slugging upside and with how often the Twins adjust their lineup these days I would suspect they remain very up and down offensively without much rythym.
Other viable options
I trust equally these guys as much as the three above.
Jose Urquidy – Gets the weak RH batting Orioles who in my mind wont perform two nights in a row on the road.
German Marquez – Pirates suck…. What could go wrong…
Miami Marlins
Jazz, Marte, Duvall, Alfaro
Hot weather is going to impact certain stadiums more than others and a spot like Philadelphia is one that we cannot overlook with it being so hot and humid and — checks notes — Vinnie Velasquez on the mound vs his nemesis the Marlins. Ah yes, have I mentioned how bad the Phillies bullpen is too? They have blown seven saves in their last six games. That is quite impressive to say the least but I’m gonna saw law of averages works for them not blowing a save tonight because in order to blow a save you have to have the lead and every Marlins hitter tonight grades well against Vincent Velasquez. Jorge Alfarro former catcher, Adam Duvall/Jesus Aguilar homer mashers, Jazz+Marte setting the table….
Cincinnati Reds
UPDATE – Needledick Blake Snell has been scratched because he has a little tummy not feely good. Bull…. Shit!….
Nick Castellanos, Eugenio Suarez, Jonathan India
Everyone is going to see the great park shift for Tatis and the Padres here and run to their side but it’s attacking Blake Snell on the road that you are missing out on. He has been terrible away from PETCO in his first season with the Padres and faces an extremely dangerous lineup tonight.
Fenway Pawk
Verdugo, JD, Xander, Devers, Perez, OHearn, Rivera
Back here again in Fenway which will no doubt have the ball flying out. The Red Sox could potentially go off for about 15 runs on Keller and the Royals tonight but do not overlook the value on the Royals seeing Pivetta for a second time in a short time span.
Atlanta Braves
Acuna, Freeman
While the Braves have been less than stellar away from Truist Park, they’ve been exactly what everyone wants when they are at home. Tonight they’re seeing Tylor Megill for the second time and it’s another prime spot for Ronald Acuna and Freddie Freeman.
Tampa Bay Rays
Lowe, Meadows, Wander
Love the Rays going into a great park when its hot/humid and against Joe up and down Ross. I’ve been able to have some great days with Joe Ross when he is on but this is not a spot I trust him at all. Love Lowe and Meadows tonight.
CATCHER
- Salvador Perez
- Jorge Alfarro
- Jacob Stallings … If you had to describe peak MLB DFS, it would most certainly be a $3100 Pirates Catcher in Coors Field at 30% ownership homering off an extreme ground ball pitcher. Is there anything more peak DFS?
FIRST BASE
- Prince Frederick Freeman … a very sharp dressed man this evening
- Jesus Aguilar
- Matt Olson
- Anthony Rizzo
SECOND BASE
This position has not been this good all season and may not be this good again all year. Love all four of these boys tonight.
- Brandon Lowe
- Jeff McNeil
- Jazz Chisholm
- Jake Cronenworth
THIRD BASE
- Rafael Devers
- Manny Machado
- Emmanuel Rivera … The two guys above are head and shoulder above the field at 3B tonight, so the next option is just to punt down to $2,000 with Rivera who teams probably don’t know how to really pitch too yet and he looked decent last night.
- Jon Berti
SHORTSTOP
- Trea Turner … About that heater.
- Wander Franco
- Xander Bogaerts
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Ronald Acuna Jr.
- Thomas Pham
- Starling Marte
- Nick Castellanos – Not sure how Snell gets him out tonight. Castellanos grades out well in virtually every scenario that Snell can use tonight unless he decides to pitch him up, up and then down, down then maybe to the left then back right then back left before finishing him off right and even then he better use his B pitch before going to his A pitch to finish the AB off…
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Austin Meadows
- Trent Grisham
- Alex Verdugo
- Adam Duvall
- Shohei Ohtani
OUTFIELD – Value
- Akil Baddoo
- Jorge Soler
- Bryan Reynolds … C’Mon man, $3700?
The Dongers Club
- Starling Marte – OF – Marlins – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Salvador Perez – C – Royals
- Freddie Freeman – 1B – Braves
- Brandon Lowe – 2B – Rays
- Rafael Devers – 3B – Red Sox
- Thomas Pham – OF – Padres
- Nicholas Castellanos – OF – Reds
- Wander Franco – SS – Rays
- BONUS ………………………………… Trea Turner – SS – Nationals
BETS
- Marlins/Phillies OVER 9
- Cincinnati Reds ML
- Pads/Reds OVER 10
- Athletics 1st 5 Innings ML
HR PARLAY
- Freeman / Devers / Castellanos
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
THE HIGHEST CHALK STACK(S)
Astros, Red Sox, Rockies, Indians, Padres
Honestly we should see these teams spread out fairly evenly this evening and only Boston/San Diego have interest for me. Tonight’s slate has a ton of teams who have 2-4 guys who all look extremely favorable against the SP and are in relatively good ballparks. Of which the Astros, Rockies and Indians do not fit that specific profile so Boston and Slam Diego are the ones I like here.
LOW(er) OWNED GOOD TEAMS
Braves, Reds
LEVERAGE STACKS/PLAYS
There isn’t a specific great lineup vs chalky SP as leverage play today. Obviously German Marquez is someone who usually is a good leverage at home but probably will be higher owned than you think today vs Dem Pie-Rats. And were not gonna even think about using Jose Urena tonight so lets not go there either. Well… Maybe… No, nevermind… So do we attack any of the chalky SP’s? If you want to go that route tonight, I can see some potential here, but none of these are what my gut says.
Twins: Kepler/Sano/Cruz/Donaldson … With Giolito having to wait a day they have a chance to jump him early. But the Twins are so jeckyl and hyde I cant trust them and don’t trust them.
Cubs: Rizzo/Joc/Heyward
The Royals and Marlins are leverage in the sense that nobody else will have them. But then nobody should have Pivetta or Velasquez either.
DK PITCHERS
Woodruff & Kaprielian
Kaprielian & Giolito
FD PITCHERS
Giolito
Kaprielian
CORE HITTERS
Brandon Lowe
Starling Marte
Nick Castellanos