An eight game Thursday night Main slate? What world are we living in here?!?! This is glorious and it features the start of some new 4 game weekend series with exciting rivalries like the Marlins vs the Pirates, Cubs vs Giants and yes … Diamondbacks vs Brewers!
Speaking of Marlins vs Pirates, that game has a little lingering showers but will play, as will the other 7 games on this slate and all of them have warm weather
Yu Darvish
Really hard to overlook Darvish at home and under 11k on DraftKings against the Mets. They hit in Arizona because it’s a good hitters park and the Diamondbacks pitching staff is subpar. They’re not suddenly hot, nor a good lineup that should come into PETCO and have any success against Darvish. For some reason Walker on the other side is priced up above 10k, so we cannot game stack what should be a low scoring 2-1 game. Padres get right and win a low scoring dominant game behind Darvish.
Lance Lynn
Another guy that is just hard to overlook is Lynn against the Tigers. Detroit has been better of late but still rolls out a ton of RH batters which remain less than quality plays when facing big ole Lance Lynn. This is the preferred SP game stack game if you are into that sort of thing as the value SP of the night is mentioned below and this is another low scoring game to look at with a top end high strikeout upside pitcher in Lynn vs the Tigers offense.
Casey Mize
He is pitching extremely well and is the only option under 7k that I would ride tonight. I think we could see some chalk move over to Bubic against the Twins given how bad they have been lately and vs LHP and between Mize and Bubic it’s hands down Casey Mize.
This is not a slate that we are home run hunting, but it’s more a spot that I want good value to get on base against mediocre or bad pitching and hope that it produces enough paired with the top end pitching. Both of the teams listed below 1-2 are playing in stadiums that have rumored to installed humidors. I don’t buy it for Kauffman Stadium, but I 100% do buy it for Milwaukee. I had been suspicious all year about the home conditions in Milwaukee and think that there is truth to this as five teams have reportedly installed humidors without mentioning it to anyone.
Brewers
Duplantier will have a good inning or two but has been nowhere near where the Diamondbacks thought he would be. At best he can give them a couple innings before getting into a rough bullpen and the prices on these Brewers are laughable tonight. Vogelbach at 2600 and Shaw at 3300 allow you to easily get a 5 man Brewers stack on DK to pair with both Lynn and Darvish.
Royals
The Royals offense has been good in basically two scenarios all season. They’ve hit on the first of the month and they have hit on Thursday’s. It’s just been a thing for them and we likely will see both Mondesi and Soler return to the lineup today but what has helped KC of late has been Benintendi hitting well, Merrifield coming out of his slump and some quality bottom of the order AB’s from Dozier and others. They’ve got a great match-up against J.A. Happ in a very warm Kauffman Stadium and a game I like to have a good deal of offensive fireworks in it.
Just missed the Cut
Cubs / Giants – The best game stack on the night at 2% ownership is out in San Francisco.
Mariners – Griffin Canning stinks + pitched well vs Mariners but has given up HR in most of his starts this season. Kyle Seager takes him out.
Cincinnati – Cardinals bullpen is really worn down, so either Waino pitches a CG gem or he’s gonna be laboring on his own all night long. Suarez a good play here with Winker.
CATCHER
- Vic Caratini
- Salvy
- Omar Narvaez
FIRST BASE
- Daniel Vogelbach
- Anthony Rizzo
- Miguel Sano
SECOND BASE
- Jorge Polanco
- Kolten Wong
- Jake Cronenworth
THIRD BASE
- Hunter Dozier
- Kyle Seager
- Travis Shaw
SHORTSTOP
- Nick Ahmed
- Adalberto Mondesi
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Christian Yelich
- Whit Merrifield
- Ketel Marte
- Starling Marte
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Kris Bryant
- Jesse Winker
- Jarred Kelenic
OUTFIELD – Value
- Kyle Garlick
- Avisail Garcia
The Dongers Club
- Avisail Garcia – OF – Brewers – Chairman of the Dongers Club … Ok humidor theory, lets test this puppy out.
- Starling Marte – OF – Marlins
- Kyle Seager – 3B – Mariners
- Kris Bryant – 3B/OF – Cubs
- Daniel Vogelbach – 1B – Brewers
- Nick Ahmed – SS – Diamondbacks
- Victor Caratini – C – Padres
- Jorge Polanco – 2B – Twins
- BONUS …………………………………… Jesse Winker – OF – Reds
BETS
- Reds ML
- Brewers / Diamondbacks OVER 9
- Cubs / Giants OVER 8.5
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- Brewers
- Angels
- Royals
Team(s) with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP (i.e. Low owned secondary stacks)
- Diamondbacks
- Giants
LEVERAGE PLAYS
- Mariners
- Reds
DK SE SP Recommendations in Order
- Darvish & Lynn
- Darvish & Mize
- Lynn & Mize
FD SE Recommendations in Order
- Darvish
- Lynn
CORE HITTERS FOR SE
- Mini Stack: MIL – Daniel Vogelbach & Avisail Garcia
- One Offs: Kyle Seager