Kudos to DraftKings for putting together an extremely quality early slate today and FanDuel can just go pound sand with splitting up the slates at 2PM and 4PM. Compounding the issue is that they really didn’t even make either slate that massive so it’s not like they get that much rake out of it.
Weather
After two months of off and on good and bad weather slates we appear to finally be getting to the part of the season when this section becomes utterly pointless outside of a thunderstorm warning here or there. This also means that this section can now turn into better things like rants about why ratings are better than projections or why the defensive shift is the worst thing to happen since FanDuel changed their scoring to remove negative points for hitters. But we’ll save those topics for another day.
Rain showers likely in Texas could force the roof to close there.
All. Games. Play.
All. Games. Hot.
Lucas Giolito
Over the last three weeks or so the Tigers have suddenly started to not be so horrific on offense. In fact, against RHP now they are hitting a whopping .229 with only a 26.9% strikeout rate on the season. I say this jokingly because they were far worse then that but those are still obvious numbers that we want to pick on and Lucas Giolito has pitched much better in two of his last three starts and is an A+ level type play this afternoon.
Dick Mountain
Ole Rich Hill, I can’t believe I didn’t use this great nickname that the Rays are pushing with him more often than now but hey, let’s ride it as the 41 year old is having a really good – Jamie Moyer esque – season this year. As a fellow 41 year old I must like the idea that Hill gets to pitch in a day game because certainly by 10pm these days I’m really starting to fade, so an afternoon game with the roof closed in Texas and given his dominance vs LHB this year I think he can avoid giving up a solo HR to Joey Gallo and produce well.
Brandon Woodruff
There are so many risky pitchers today that I am scared off because of bad top of the order matchups (Mahle vs Castellanos, Kelly vs Yelich, Means in hot Camden, etc.) that I just opted to roll out with two of what appear to be safer options at pitching today and Woodruff is the #1 for most but for me he is #3. I expect some offense from the Diamondbacks in this game and they’re not the highest strikeout team on the board – however Woodruff can offset that given that he’s likely to still find a way to get 8-9 strikeouts in this one and should get plenty of run support too. We’re gonna spend up on pitching this afternoon.
Other notes
- Tyler Mahle – This is the best of the cheaper pitchers today but the Cardinals will put the ball in play enough to make me trust the three above far more.
- Kolby Allard – At 5,000 on DK, a LHP in a pitchers environment vs the Rays has to be considered right? Well, he may top out around 50-60 pitches and I’m not sure that’s enough given the potential risk.
This is another slate where the one offs look really good to spread things out and I have strong opinions on certain individuals in the positional breakdown, but we look at “stacking” teams up through a different lens. It’s less about finding an individual hitter and more looking at where a team can give the SP trouble and benefit from the bullpen.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Welcome back to Toronto Saturday afternoon domination days. Toronto will draw Jose Urquidy today who doesn’t exactly throw 100 mph stuff that Toronto loves but it might feel like it after getting stymied by the crafty Zack Greinke last night. The Jays got blown out and are immediately the team to lock in today in a get right spot. Back to Sahlen field we go for stack upside this afternoon but on the other side of the field with the Jays destroying Urquidy.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
You all know they are elite vs LHP when it comes to winning games, but with Nick Madrigal in the 2 hole we’re getting a straight run out of the gate from their righty bats to give Skubal fits. If Anderson/Madrigal get things going then no doubt Moncada/Abreu will bring them home and give the White Sox a chance to blow the doors off this slate today.
Next favorite teams
Phillies/Nats – Back to game stack here.
Brewers – Yelich/Shaw/Urias
Reds – Naquin/Castellanos/Winker/Tucker B
Marlins – Dickerson/Marte/Jazz
CATCHER
- Tucker Barnhardt
- Reese McGuire
- Austin Wynns
FIRST BASE
- Rhys Hoskins – He is homering
- Jose Abreu – He is doubling
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – He is amazing
SECOND BASE
- Brad Miller – We want Phillies exposure, and 2B is not a pay up spot.
- Jazz Chisolm
- Joe Panik
THIRD BASE
- Alex Bregman – Another guy who fits into the ‘day off’ theory after resting last night.
- Yoan Moncada – Not as a one off, part of ChiSox stack only with Abreu/Anderson
- Eugenio Suarez – Value at only 3800 in a park he has done well in
SHORTSTOP
- Trea Turner
- Bo Bichette
- Tim Anderson
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
The kings are back in town, you’ll need a STUD in the OF this afternoon to carry you — lots of multi-HR big game upside here.
- Christian Yelich – That HR the other night is what is getting him going and it continues today
- Nelson Cruz – That HR everyone has been waiting for is coming today after a nice rest day on Friday.
- Juan Soto – Phillies just gotta walk him honestly. He wants more breaking pitches which Howard probably won’t throw and thus I do see him getting on base with walks and then Schwarber likely jacks him home, but if Soto gets the bullpen we’re probably gonna see him hit HR #12 in his 22nd game at Citizens Bank Park.
- Teoscar Hernandez – A must in Jays stacks.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Corey Dickerson
- Cedric Mullins
- Kyle Schwarber – See above re Soto
- Odubel Herrera
OUTFIELD – Value
- DJ Stewart
- Lourdes Gurriel
- Harold Ramirez
- Andrew Benintendi
The Dongers Club
- Christian Yelich – OF – Brewers – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Blue Jays
- Kyle Schwarber – OF – Nationals
- Bo Bichette – SS – Blue Jays
- Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Phillies
- Reese McGuire – C – Blue Jays
- Alex Bregman – 3B – Astros
- Brad Miller – 2B – Phillies
- BONUS ………………. Nelson Cruz – OF – Twins
BETS
- Toronto Blue Jays ML
- Blue Jays / Astros OVER
- Brewers 1st 5 Innings Run Line
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- Astros
- Phillies
- Nationals
Team(s) with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP (i.e. Low owned secondary stacks)
- Blue Jays
- White Sox
LEVERAGE PLAYS
consider these outside the box plays today….
- Marlins … Chase De Jong? Why are we not attacking Chase De Jong? Oh right, it’s the Marlins. C-Dick/Marte have their fun today
- Diamondbacks … Good weather for hitting in Milwaukee today — this would just be going left when everyone is going right and hoping it works out.
GAMES I AM NOT HEAVY ON … and why
- Twins (Berrios) vs Royals (Minor) … Basically I see this being a push game. A push game is where the pitchers are good enough to avoid crooked number innings in the match-up they have but not good enough to trust as an A+ play. I know the Twins have been bad vs LHP but Cruz getting a day off Friday is exactly what he needed and it’s extremely warm with wind blowing out to left. Minor will not pitch cleanly and Berrios will not get the strikeouts you want from him. It’s a fade unless you roster a value Royal or Nelson Cruz.
- Indians (Civale) vs Orioles (Means) … This game has the best blow up potential of the ones I am not on IMO. But Do you think Means gets blown up by Cleveland? I can’t see it outside of good value in Harold Ramirez or Amed Rosario (but SS is fucking loaded). The Orioles lineup is where I’d go, Mullins/Stewart are fantastic value plays in the OF here against Civale. Hot as hell in B-More…
DK SE SP Recommendations in Order
- Giolito and Hill
- Woodruff and Hill
- Mahle and Hill
FD SE Recommendations in Order
LOL @ FanDuel Slates … Whatever
CORE HITTERS FOR SE
- MINI STACK: Teoscar Hernandez, Reese McGuire and Bo Bichette and/or Joe Panik
- ONE OFFS: Christian Yelich
- BEST VALUE: DJ Stewart