A lighter but still pretty full slate of games tonight. I don’t envision any games getting PPD due to weather which is a good thing and the distribution on pitching and pricing is much better this evening than it has been in a while.
Gerrit Cole is making a start tonight against Josh Donaldson and the Twins. Cole has been the poster child now for the spin rate issues and it’s not like we didn’t know he was using some doctoring techniques when he was with the Astros. My whole issue on this big thing is that it’s been going on for four years now and we’re suddenly just calling folks out for it to make the players look like the bad guys? I’m honestly on Cole’s side a little bit here because what happened is MLB blatantly doctored the baseballs themselves back around 2016-2017. As great of a story as Scooter Gennett is, that four home run game he had was still the peak of the iceberg in the real scandal here. Gennett hit his 4 homers back in June of 2017 and it was a year we saw the ball flying out of every single ballparks, to the point where nightly we would ask who was going to be the 2-HR hitter tonight? It really became obvious that the balls were heavily juiced in the World Series that year when in Game 5 the Astros won 13-12 over the Dodgers.
Many since then will look back and remember the Astros cheating scandal and think they were out here cheating in that game and stealing signs. What about the Dodgers? It went both ways the entire series and the narrative that we got fed was that the hitters were suddenly using analytics to tell them to try to hit the ball into the air. Are you trying to tell me that hitters for 100 years didn’t realize that when they hit the ball in the air it increases their home run chances? GTFOH. They didn’t do that more because the ball wouldn’t automatically fly out like it has in recent years, so it was natural that hitters would suddenly say hey look, all I gotta do is hit a fly ball and it’s gone. Duh.
Pitchers meanwhile were complaining loudly that the baseballs were impossible to grip and would result in blisters. You have noticed how lots of pitchers who used to have problems with blisters no longer have those problems right? It’s as if their grips have changed. Odd. Blisters and Tommy John surgery were two things that were killing pitchers, we didn’t have enough pitchers in the game and it was going to ruin baseball! So guess what, the pitchers started using more substances like had been done forever. Only now they were hiding it better and using materials that were far easier to apply and gave them a much stronger grip. This is nothing new, and to make someone like Cole the scapegoat is no different than making Jeff Bezos the scapegoat for tax reform. Not their problem they did things the way it was allowed when everyone else turned a blind eye and ignored all the other problems that were self inflicted (and in this case, created by the Commissioners office). You are going to see some middle reliever wind up taking the fall for all of this, there will be a suspension and it will not be one of the big name Ace’s….. Just remember, this has been going on for a while and everyone thought it was funny because it was the only way to offset a juiced baseball.
Weather
Some minor rain spots tonight but I do not see anything that is going to warrant making any pivots or big decisions. The games with rain are in Philly, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cincinnati.
There depth today is in the value arms but I wouldn’t just blindly ignore the Cole/Lynn spots tonight and on DraftKings having one of them makes a ton of sense given the good value with SP2’s.
Gerrit Cole (DK/FD)
When, not if, but when Gerrit Cole finishes with less than 30 points tonight on DK and less than 60 on FD I don’t want to hear complaints about how Cole let you down only getting 24 fantasy points because he gave up some hits or maybe a solo HR to Josh Donaldson (he should bean him honestly). This slate really lacks options in the mid range that we should be considering and for that reason alone we are paying up to take Cole against a Twins lineup which is very bad 5 through 9 and very erratic 1-4. Cole’s been the center focus on the spin rate controversy but I’ve quickly realized we need to stop being afraid of using the high end talented pitchers because they might not be using substances anymore. The guys who were getting a major increase on this are the mid range pitchers or the relievers who are trying to stay in the big leagues with their club. Cole might not be insane like he was with the Astros anymore (because uh, yeah, they were all doctoring the balls heavily) but he is still a good pitcher and facing a bad offense tonight.
Casey Mize (DK/FD)
Mize is still a young pitcher who is coming into his own, only on a much higher level than the chalky Austin Gomber (see below) right now.
Something that has been very predictive of late is finding pitchers who match-up with at least two weak hitters in the top 5 of the opponents lineup. Specifically I am looking for hitters in the top 5 who have really low xWOBA right now against the pitchers split and also have a higher K% (which usually does coincide with low hitting metrics). Mize has those factors going for him today and I trust him more than I did Boyd last night and I wouldn’t at all be shocked if Casey Mize wound up in the top 3 overall scoring tonight.
Austin Gomber (DK)
Like Mize, in his second season Gomber is shockingly still cheap and I can imagine a good deal of that is because he has a bad team behind him, one that doesn’t win much on the road. But quietly the young lefty has really proved his worth after coming over in the Arenado trade during the off-season. He has a sub .300 xWOBA to both LH and RH batters this year, a 24% strikeout rate and faces a team that has a top 5 K% expected rate almost near 30%, which is not only the highest on the slate but among the highest in the league. His cap is likely 6 innings but it’s a great chance for him to finish with a 6 IP, 8 strikeout night and very little damage against.
I am not using …
Lance Lynn – I would rather have Cole as my SP1 and the other pitchers below Cole in the recommendations are the right range to shop for SP2 tonight
Tony Gonsolin – First start of year, no thank you.
Sleeper arms I expect to pitch well but didn’t make my use list.
Zach Eflin – Pitches great at home and I would be fine with him on FD, but not DK.
Patrick Corbin – Lefties vs Rays and he has more K upside than Lester did last night — if you want a pivot off Gomber chalk this is a viable consideration on DK.
Adam Wainwright – Will pitch well, lack strikeouts.
RED SOX
After going into a slump, we should see the return of Xander Bogaerts tonight against Jake eggs (formerly reverse splits) Odorizzi. It’s warm again in Boston tonight and the Red Sox had their “let down” game after sweeping the Yankees last night because we can just attribute the Monday win to riding high after the Yankees series since it was a day game. But Xander/Devers/Renfroe tonight make up a core trio that I see having a big game against the Astros.
METS
Happy Dominic Smith day. The Mets get to see Matt Harvey AGAIN! and now he’s more of an opener which leads us into the Orioles bullpen that can be very up and down. Smith, Villar, Pillar with Mancini on the other side of the house.
BREWERS
Brewers are once again a good value team tonight. Being in a small park against a young SP who has not shown ability to get out opposite handed (Left) hitters with any secondary pitches is what I am attacking here. Narvaez, Yelich, Vogelbach are all really strong plays and even though Luis Urias is R v R, he is in a very good spot assuming he gets the lead off nod.
CATCHER
- Omar Narvaez
- Yasmani Grandal
- Kyle Higashioka
FIRST BASE
- Dominic Smith
- Trey Mancini – Happy Mancini Hump Day.
- Freddie Freeman
SECOND BASE
- Tommy Edman
- Luis Urias
- Max Muncy
THIRD BASE
- Rafael Devers
- Nolan Arenado
- Yandy Diaz
SHORTSTOP
- X gonna give it to ya
- Trea Turner
- Nicky Lopez
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Nick Castellanos
- Christian Yelich
- Alex Verdugo … Way too cheap for as steady of a player he is and whenever we like Boston and he is sub 4k you lock him in.
- Kyle Tucker
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Aaron Judge
- Andrew McCutchen
- Avisail Garcia
- Shohei Ohtani
OUTFIELD – Value
- Danny Santana
- Eric Haase
- Michael Brantley
The Dongers Club
- Xander Bogaerts – SS – Boston Red Sox – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Dominic Smith – OF – Mets
- Trey Mancini – 1B – Orioles
- Nick Castellanos – OF – Reds
- Kyle Tucker – OF – Astros
- Omar Narvaez – C – Brewers
- Yandy Diaz – 3B – Rays
- Luis Urias – 2B – Brewers
- BONUS ………………. Trea Turner – SS – Nationals
BETS
- Milwaukee Brewers ML +101
- Boston Red Sox ML -134
- Mariners / Tigers UNDER 9
- St. Louis Cardinals ML
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
THE HIGHEST CHALK STACK(S)
- The Metropolitans
- Astros
- Dodgers
- Red Sox
LOW OWNED GOOD TEAMS
- White Sox
VALUE STACK
- Brewers
LEVERAGE PLAYS
Not really seeing a team that stands out as the single leverage spot tonight, basically anyone outside of the chalk section should be fairly low owned providing good leverage.
DK SE SP Recommendations in Order
- Cole & Mize
- Mize & Gomber
FD SE Recommendations in Order
- Cole
- Mize
CORE HITTERS FOR SE
- MINI STACK: Xander Bogaerts / Alex Verdugo
- ONE OFF: Dominic Smith
- VALUE: Omar Narvaez (DK) / Luis Urias (FD)