Happy Sunday with 10 games covering our MAIN slate before the afternoon tilt slate which is then followed by the Snoozedown game between the Red Sox and Yankees. The Padres/Nationals game was suspended last night due to a shooting outside of the stadium in Washington, DC — which is really scary in many ways because it triggered thoughts of what would happen with a shooter in a stadium. Fortunately, there was no shooter in the stadium and it was just a casual saturday night in Southeast Washington, DC sadly.
So they will be resuming last night’s game today at 1:05 PM. And given that the MAIN slate was already posted on both sites before this announcement we have those players in the playerpool on both sites — but that is for their regular game today which will be a full 9 inning game. The challenge in DFS here is that we could see some lineup shuffling in the second game considering it’s not only a Sunday but basically 1.5 games being played, however the Nationals are home tomorrow while the Padres have an off day for travel.
The other game in a similar circumstance is Marlins at Phillies – which was suspended last night because the Philadelphia fans were too rowdy celebrating Nolan Patrick being traded away by the Flyers. Or it was rain, I’m not sure, one of those was the reason they suspended it and I’m going to go with the Nolan Patrick trade.
Bottom line, both of those games are full 9 inning games and they are all included on the slate.
The Rangers at Blue Jays, however, that is a 7 inning game.
WEATHER
There are no major issues today with Tampa vs Atlanta being the one game that likely would see a storm/shower roll through but it’s expected to be at the end of the game if at all.
These two are your chalk pitchers today, I like one of them (Ryu) but prefer a pivot on the other. That said, if you use both I wouldn’t sweat it.
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Yesterday’s rain out has benefited us on this Sunday slate because Ryu is pushed back for today and is expected to start Game 1 of the double-header. Texas is a target as I mentioned on Friday and Ryu had a really good bounce back start before the break so any noise about him struggling post the grip changes is just that — noise. Texas is bad, pick on them for a discount with $7,600 on Ryu for DK today.
Zack Wheeler
The model and the data has been spot on to start the second half with pitchers and we very much will trust Zack Wheeler who has been rock solid for Philadelphia this season.
Reasons for concern are as follows. He has not pitched a regular game in 11 days (he came in briefly in the all-star game) and his strikeout rate (specifically his Called Strike/Whiff %) has really declined over his last five starts or so and they weren’t against horrible match-ups. Granted, most pitchers who are going today haven’t pitched in a while so that’s kind of nitpicky. The only other concern I would have is if the resumed game somehow goes on forever and it winds up messing up his warm-up routine which for a pitcher like Wheeler would likely result in a rough first inning IMO.
Reasons for optimism would be essentially that Wheeler will throw 100 pitches every time out and he’s going to probably have a bounce back strikeout upside here against a RH heavy Marlins lineup. But it’s a team I was on vs him last time they saw him in Philly a while ago and I think the downside factors are enough for me to be looking for an alternative SP1 off Wheeler today.
SLEEPERS
Sonny Gray
After being on Milwaukee Friday and Saturday I am off them today. They have put up 18 runs over the last two days and yet it really hasn’t benefited me from a stacking them up perspective, but this is all about Gray’s consistency vs the Brewers as he has fared extremely well against them historically and to me grades out better than the chalky Corbin Burnes in this same game. I love Cincinnati to avoid a sweep at home today and Gray’s the leverage pitcher of the day.
Max Scherzer
There is some serious logic to considering Max at only $9,800 on DraftKings because who knows what the Padres lineup is going to wind up looking like, but honestly he is a far better play on FanDuel because on a 1 SP site, he’ll be pretty low owned and should post a 40-50 score there. The Padres definitely beat him up out in PETCO park right before the break but Max has a 37% strikeout rate at home, which should play more pitcher friendly due to weather today.
FADES
Taijuan Walker
Only threw 5 IP vs Pirates before the break and is up to 90 IP on the season, a number he hasn’t come close too since 2017. This is a high chance that we see the Mets baby him through August
Another slate where we don’t have that one team we are latching onto. Welcome to a spread it out 2-2-2 Friday….
Minnesota Twins
Arraez, Polanco, Kiriloff, Cruz
So I watched intently as the Twins and Tigers played the second game of a 7-inning double header yesterday. Gambling will do this to you and I am not that proud to admit that I watched all the way through but I did, and of course I saw the Twins just absolutely shit themselves against the Tigers in the 8th inning. Along the way though Jorge Polanco showed continued good at bats and Luis Arraez continues to be an on base machine. They’ll get Wily Peralta and probably a good amount of the Tigers bad bullpen today, so this is a spot to load up on the Twins popping off for one of their patented 8 run, 4 homer games.
KC Royals
Whit, Santana, Benintendi
Matt Harvey in Kauffman stadium. Music to my fricken ears. First inning lead off inside the park homers, convincing your manager to let you stay in and blow the World Series, ah yes, party like it’s 2015 today Kansas City. While Whit Merrifield should be popular for a million reasons, the Royal you MUST have in this stack is Carlos Santana.
Other favorable hitting spots
Toronto – 7 innings keeps their ownership down and in reality it’s only 6 innings of At Bats. I could give some analysis like hey, Vlad G is 6100, why would you pay 6100 for only 6 innings of that. Then you would point out, well, he’s probably gonna homer twice in 3 at bats, isn’t he? Fair point. Love Teoscar/Gurriel’s price the most as one offs along with Vlad or Semien
Mets – Happy Big Pete Alonso day
Phillies – Garrett has struggled big time through two starts and the Phillies lineup not being out will drive their ownership down. Really good upside on Philly and the regulars should be in as they look to continue a hot second half start.
CATCHER
- Salvador Perez
- JT Realmuto
- Yadi Molina
FIRST BASE
- Carlos Santana
- Pete Alonso
- Vladdy Jr
SECOND BASE
- Whit Merrifield
- Ozzie Albies
- Jean Segura
THIRD BASE
Not the best position in the world, so it’s really good to get different here outside of a stack (Arraez/Donaldson)
- Luis Arraez (Use at 3B on DK IMO over Donaldson)
- Manny Machado
- Jeimeir Candelario
SHORTSTOP
- Jorge Polanco
- Wander Franco
- Miguel Rojas
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Alex Kiriloff
- Nelson Cruz
- Michael Conforto
- Andrew Benintendi
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Max Kepler
- Dominic Smith
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Austin Slater
OUTFIELD – Value
- Robbie Grossman
- Gregory Polanco
- Anthony Santander
- Andrew McCutchen
The Dongers Club
- Carlos Santana – 1B – Royals – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Wander Franco – 3B – Rays
- Ozzie Albies – 2B – Braves
- Andrew Benintendi – OF – Royals
- Michael Conforto – OF – Mets
- Yadier Molina – C – Cardinals
- Didi Gregorius – SS – Phillies
- Austin Slater – OF – Giants
- BONUS ……………….. Pete Alonso – 1B – Mets
BETS
- Mets ML
- Royals ML
- Reds ML
- Jays ML
- Rays/Braves UNDER 9.0
The Chalkiest Stacks
No serious chalk today.
Good Teams Getting Overlooked
Astros
Best Leverage Play against Chalk
Sonny Gray over Burnes
Favorite DK Pitching Combinations
Gray and Ryu
Gray and Max
Favorite CORE Hitters
Whit Merrifield
Luis Arraez
Andrew Benintendi
Alex Kiriloff