Only eight games tonight on the MAIN slate and the second game of the Padres/Braves is not included on DK. Boston and Toronto is a full game despite having the rain out last night. A couple things which are very consistent right now that you want to focus in on. First, the pitch type data is really normalized now for 2021 and proving to be extremely reliable but not as a random one off necessarily. We’re still looking for situations where the team makes sense based on the pitcher, weather and stadium and then identify the key batter based on pitch type who should be putting the ball in play against the pitcher.
The other thing which is consistent right now are bad teams who are struggling and until I see a bad team bust out of their slump, you should be not only avoiding them but strongly be willing to take a SP against them because good teams will snap out of slumps in the second half but bad teams? Nah, they’ve got a tee time tomorrow to focus on.
WEATHER
No weather issues tonight.
Lance McCullers Jr
Here is how I want to approach Lance over the next month or so. He’s going to have a game where he blows up or is starting to show fatigue but I once again do not see it being tonight, but that said we’re going to approach the spot soon where you don’t want to have all your eggs in the Lance McCullers basket. Cleveland is an offense he should cruise through tonight so I’ll trust him as the top SP1 today, but his time is running out soon.
Adam Wainwright
The Cubs offense is another one which is a big dead man walking unit and now Kris Bryant is likely out tonight after exiting with hamstring “fatigue” last night. What the hell is hamstring fatigue for a 3B/OF? Seriously? I mean, my hamstrings get tired if I go and play some pick up game but I’m an old lazy fart who isn’t in as good of shape as he should be. Just say you are sitting him down to not reduce his trade value, cmon. Waino is your “safer” route tonight and by safer I mean that he’ll give you a long outing with a few strikeouts and a couple 1 man left on base innings throughout the way. Nothing flashy, but on tonight’s slate for pitching that’s a great formula for winning.
Matt Manning
Manning will rejoin the Tigers in the big leagues and it’s at the perfect time against the Texas Walking Dead Rangers. His talent is way above what his price tag is today and he won’t be that limited in pitch count but has a ton of strikeout upside. His 6’6 frame is going to translate into a ton of swings and misses as the ball is right on the hitters one way or another (either in the zone or in the back of their neck)
Twins vs White Sox
Both these pitchers get SHREDDED by the opposing lineups. Cease’s pitch profile grades really poorly and the BvP for the Twins really backs things up there as well, so Minnesota is a team I am looking at but haven’t really wanted to stack them for a while now. Kepler/Donaldson/Polanco are the favorite three.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays
I don’t expect either team to be like what Boston was on Monday where it was over after the first inning but the park can always play small and for the Blue Jays they’re getting that shot at Garrett Richards tonight, so they make the most sense but really due to pricing and position depth only George Springer leans as the must play for me. Boston is interesting because I doubt anyone really uses them against Robbie Ray but Xander Bogaerts has a slump busting game coming and JD Martinez vs a LHP is always interesting to consider. The day off yesterday probably helped Boston more than anything else.
Other teams to target offensively
Philadelphia / Yankees – Howard vs Wojo, what could go wrong here… Harper/Segura and … well I really don’t know what to do with the Yankees, but if you want to play roulette on that lineup go right ahead.
San Francisco
Washington
CATCHER
- Buster Posey … Has over .600 SLG vs LHP and has hit mostly fastballs this season, which Urias has been hit hardest on at times. Good weather in LA again so advantage hitting in my mind.
- Yadier Molina
- Reese McGuire
FIRST BASE
- Jose Abreu – $5,100 is a fantastic buy in price on Abreu even off what might appear to be one hot game. He doesn’t have just one hot game, this guy goes on streaks and has been on one since the ASB. And unlike Tucker B on the early slate today I am confident that writing up just one person here is safe because Abreu should play barring some alien invasion abducting him as payment for the Bears being given a Quarterback (or so they think).
SECOND BASE
- Jorge Polanco
- Jean Segura
THIRD BASE
- Yoan Moncada
- Jeimer Candelario
- Justin Turner
SHORTSTOP
- X gonna give it to ya… Bogaerts
- Bo Bichette
- Gleyber Torres
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Harper, Bryce
- George Springer
- Juan Soto
- Max Kepler … Really needs a high lineup order spot (hopefully he leads off and … well, just play him if he does please).
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Yordan Alvarez
- Mookie Betts
OUTFIELD – Value
- Michael Brantley
- Brian Goodwin
- Travis Jankowski
- Gavin …
The Dongers Club
- Buster Posey – C – Giants – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Jose Abreu – 1B – White Sox
- Xander Bogaerts – SS – Red Sox
- Gavin Sheets – OF – White Sox
- Bryce Harper – OF – Phillies
- Jeimer Candelario – 3B – Tigers
- Jorge Polanco – 2B – Twins
- Max Kepler – OF – Twins
- BONUS ……………….. George Springer – OF – Jays
BETS
- Giants ML
HR Parlay
- Posey, Bogaerts, Abreu, Harper
The Chalkiest Stacks
Toronto, Chicago White Sox & Houston (Fade Astros)
Good Teams Getting Overlooked
Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants
Best Leverage Play against Chalk
Minnesota Twins exposure in a game where ball should be flying
Favorite DK Pitching Combinations
McCullers and Wainwright
McCullers and Manning
FAVORITE HITTERS
Buster Posey
Jose Abreu
Max Kepler/Jorge Polanco (Batting order dependent)