Welcome to Friday, July 2nd in the Dongers Club, dubbed the best Friday slate of the season and the fact that it’s coming before the 4th of July weekend to me is definitely not a coincidence. This is the most informative article you will read about this weekends series and it’s imperative that you collect some of the nuggets here on how the series are projecting out through Sunday to store them away for dropping a lineup in Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning while drinking, hungover or doing whatever it is that you do on this fine American Holiday weekend.
I personally am gonna be on a damn boat, so suck it…. Alright, just stop getting your panties in a bind now, there will still be an article both tomorrow and Sunday – but they will probably be a little more direct to the pitchers/picks and less on the analysis and narration side of the house. So what are the 15 series we have coming in this weekend and … what do we need to know about them?
Well, here are the newbies starting up excluding the series which started last night.
NEW SERIES – THINGS TO KNOW
Padres at Phillies – They will start the series with a non DFS game as Philly is playing at 6:05 tonight for the start time. I have no understanding why they would do this but I can just assume that the Philly TV networks had complained viewers were turning the game off around the 7th inning ahead of the Phils bullpen and they were losing advertisement dollars – so to combat that start the game earlier and fans will be suckered into watching the Phils bullpen serve up game blowing home runs to Thomas Pham (5 HR in 7 G) and Wil Myers.
Mets at Yankees – Lindor and Conforto show…
Rays at Jays – Should see a Rays explosion at some point in this series in Buffalo weather permitting
Cubs at Reds – Will be covered below
White Sox at Tigers – Last time they met the Tigers pitching (specifically the bullpen) got completely shredded by the White Sox and should once again
Marlins at Braves – Covered below
Twins at Royals – People need to get fired in Kansas City, it is that bad right now. Starting with Cal Eldred the pitching coach. This could get ugly.
Orioles at Angels – Break up the Orioles! They are hot!
Red Sox at Athletics – This is a better series than it appears.
Rangers at Mariners – Ditto this one.
WEATHER & STUFF
Tampa at Toronto (Buffalo) … Good chance they can wait this one out and get it in, but the reality is do they really want to do that given that it’s a divisional game? There’s plenty of chances to get 2 games in tomorrow or Sunday so it carries a good amount of risk and also has two of the better arms on both teams on the hill tonight. So I think with rain issues we don’t want to force the pitchers here and we can pass on the hitting overall. Just move on, there are 13 other games tonight.
Mets at Yankees … Lots of rain here, cross it off as well for same reasons above.
Everything else is good to go and roof closed in Arizona.
If we eliminate the two potential rain games we are down to 24 options on pitchers tonight and you would probably assume that there’s somebody out there who is going to post a magical high scoring game that breaks the slate. But in reality, I don’t see it anywhere and there is a much higher probability that you’ll wind up shooting to the top of contests tonight based upon hitting instead of a pitcher carrying you up there. In fact, you have a better shot of a pitcher dragging you down tonight than you do of a pitcher elevating you, so to be blunt, I am going to go with guys who I trust to pitch deep into the game without giving up a ton of damage over those who could come out and strike out 6 or 7 in a row.
We also have very good pricing on DraftKings tonight, generally I will ignore the pricing at first on pitchers when evaluating who I want to roster and the top three priced guys today all came in as the top three safe arms on the slate — which is how it should be.
Lance McCullers Jr. (DK: $9,400)
When McCullers can keep his walk rate down he excels and has been very good on the road this season. The Indians collectively do not walk a ton and have one main hitter tonight who is a threat against Lance in Jose Ramirez. I expect a really good game tonight from McCullers.
Lance Lynn (DK: $9,700)
Lynn’s last start was cut short due to rain but he was cruising along vs Seattle and the short start is not a concern and if anything it should bode really well for him to go deep today vs the Tigers. Lynn normally has no issues with endurance and given how much the Tigers like to swing and miss I’d be shocked if he cannot get into the 7th inning tonight with a comfortable line score.
Max Scherzer (DK: $10,500)
Of the guys who can get on a K heater, Max is really the only one at home against the Dodgers. He’s dominated LA batters, including Cody Bellinger, historically and has been better this year limiting power from LH bats – but this is a slightly different Dodger lineup and while yes, Max is up there as a good arm tonight, I’m not expecting more than a 20 from him on DK so I don’t think this is as clear as oh just play Max as one normally would think.
Logan Gilbert (DK: $6,600)
Like Lynn he had his last start cut short due to rain but the rookie SP has been pitching extremely well of late and is going to be overlooked because I think a lot of ownership will be on Kyle Gibson on the other side and that’s the trap IMO. Joey Gallo is on an absolute heater for the Rangers, so it’s not like Gilbert doesn’t have some trouble spots in this lineup but he should be able to get above 2x tonight for his price.
Should pitch well but are facing good teams: Zac Gallen, Frankie Montas
This is setting up as a one off night instead of a full 5 man stack night, so these aren’t really ranked in order of how to go in on these teams but more so where I see the most upside being overall tonight.
St Louis Cardinals
Arenado, Carlson, Edman
Welcome to the Nolan Arenado revenge game, it’s tonight, not last night as that was Goldy’s spot. The former Rockie 3B in his second game back in Colorado I’m sure will get endless standing ovations as he comes close to hitting for the darn cycle tonight. Facing off against Chi-Chi Gonzalez won’t be great for just Arenado as we should expect some other Cardinals, who are underpriced, to perform better than they have all season namely Dylan Carlson and Tommy Edman.
Miami Marlins
Duvall, Marte, Aguilar, Alfaro
Shall we try this again boys? The Marlins were a let down last time we touched them but we have to have a short memory and that’s what I hope the Braves pitchers have as the Marlins come into Atlanta to once again pound the ever loving piss out of their staff. Sure, Nolan Arenado is back in Coors, but lets not overlook the legend of Adam Duvall in Atlanta, along with the biggest due factor play of the night in Starling Marte they should combine to deliver the Marlins up to the top against Drew Smyly tonight.
Chicago Cubs
Heyward, Happ, Bryant … + Votto from Cincy side
The Cubs are going into their home away from home, Great American Ballpark. Rizzo, Bryant, Heyward, Happ, Contreras, Baez and sure, why not, Joc Pederson too all hit well in this stadium and should not be expected to leave Cincinnati without a massive game. Pay very close attention to this series all weekend long because tonight is their toughest test against Sonny Gray who has great prior history against the Cubs core guys but also is not someone who pitches deep into games. The Reds bullpen is mediocre at best, so I strongly like the Cubs to have a good game today.
Minnesota Twins
Cruz, Sano, Donaldson, Kepler
No bullpen gives up more home runs over the last 30 days than the Kansas City Royals. They just took a beating in Boston and are more than worn down across the board so they’ll need Singer to pitch extremely efficient tonight and seeing the Twins for now the third time this season that is highly unlikely. I said this is a one off type night, but if any team puts up a 12 spot and gets to pound on some position player pitching it would likely be the Twins. Speaking of position players pitching which I hate, if the Royals do decide to let a position player pitch I hope it’s Jorge Soler because that would just be funny to try and watch Soler pitch wouldn’t it? Alas, he will probably be pulled by that dipshit Matheny in the 7th inning for defensive reasons despite being down 8-4.
Under the radar teams
Seattle Mariners – Crawford/Haniger/Seager
Baltimore Orioles – Mullins/Santander/Mancini
CATCHER
- Jorge Alfaro
- Salvador Perez
- Jason Castro
FIRST BASE
- Joey Votto
- Miguel Sano
- Keston Hiura
SECOND BASE
- Tommy Edman
- Jorge Polanco
- Kolten Wong
THIRD BASE
- Nolan … Every good play tonight and their brother is high priced here tonight, just play Nolan
SHORTSTOP
- Carlos Correa
- Miguel Rojas
- Paul DeJong
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Adam Duvall
- Dylan Carlson
- Jesse Winker
- Cedric Mullins … The Orioles are a good target tonight in LA vs Canning
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Charlie Blackmon … Oh hey, the Rockies are in Coors too? Imagine that.
- Starling Marte
- Alex Kiriloff
- Kyle Tucker
OUTFIELD – Value
- Tyler Naquin
- Gavin Sheets — When a young hitter faces a young SP I always love the young hitters. And I use the term young in the sense of MLB service time here.
- Max Kepler
The Dongers Club
- Adam Duvall – OF – Marlins – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Cedric Mullins – OF – Orioles
- Joey Votto – 1B – Reds
- Jorge Polanco – 2B – Twins
- Jason Heyward – OF – Cubs
- Jorge Alfarro – C – Marlins
- Carlos Correa – SS – Astros
- Nolan – 3B – Cardinals
- BONUS ………………………. Charlie Blackmon – OF – Rockies
BETS
- Cubs/Reds OVER 9.5
- Marlins/Braves OVER 9
- Royals/Twins OVER 9.5
- Seattle Mariners ML
HR PARLAY
Arenado – Duvall – Votto
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
THE HIGHEST CHALK STACK(S)
Cardinals, Angels, Reds
LOW(er) OWNED GOOD TEAMS
Twins, Astros
LEVERAGE STACKS/PLAYS
Cubs
DK PITCHERS
McCullers and Lynn
FD PITCHERS
McCullers
CORE HITTERS
Nolan Arenado
Adam Duvall
Cedric Mullins
Joey Votto