Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. Fifteen game Friday slate with the Jays back in Toronto, Corey Seager and the revamped Dodgers heading to Chase Field, the Yankees taking their new talents to South Beach, Carlos Carrasco is back and so are the black uniforms in New York, and speaking of New York — Matt Harvey on the bump for the Orioles and the Nationals …. wait, who the hell are these guys???
The trade deadline is coming this afternoon and this article is slated to post ONE minute exactly after the deadline. But the guts of the article are being done ahead of the mad rush from 2pm to 4pm EST today so do not @ me when there is some late trade which impacts a player on one team or another. It’s just the way that it is…
Speaking of which, tonight’s not really a deep analysis kind of night. There are going to be weird lineups like whatever the heck the Nationals have left which you could target with a boring pitcher like Trevor Williams. Then who knows what Cleveland does, or Minnesota, or the new look Yankees, etc. etc. etc. Finding value bats in good parks, vs bad pitching staffs is the safe way to go and something you will need. Taking a longshot on a value arm tonight? Sure, you could find a few and I’ll mention my favorites below, but overall this slate will be won and lost by making sure where you spend up is appropriate.
WEATHER
Here’s the great news today. We have zero weather issues. The roof in Toronto might be open, the roof in Chase Field is schedule to be closed but I think they should open it for old times sakes.
Lance Lynn
Thank you for playing Cleveland Indians, we’ll catch you on the flip side of the galaxy when you can come back as the Guardians. Or was it Defenders? I can’t figure it out and as Harry Doyle best said “To Hell with it”. Lynn’s a workhorse, limiting righties to .213 xWOBA, lefties to a .289 xWOBA and I’m fairly confident he eats chicken wings with the bone in them. Lock him in as the clear #1 pitcher tonight.
Jameson Taillon
The pride of Lakeland Florida will square off in a pitcher friendly park, against a non DH and non Starling Marte lineup. Should be a favorable spot for Taillon to be trusted and he’s been much better throughout hte course of the season with two really good outings his last two starts. Marlins should hit plenty of ground balls and give him a nice 6-7 inning type game unless Aaron Boone gets cute and pinch hits for him too early.
Logan Gilbert
Gilbert got hit the second time through the order in his last start vs a good Oakland team. Now he’s going on the road to take on a bad Texas Rangers lineup which will start to hit at some point around mid August when they get some random series. This isn’t that time and the young future ace of the Mariners is poised to have an 8 strikeout night in the big D.
Those value longshot arms
- Ryan Weathers – Probably the most popular value arm vs the Rockies. Makes a ton of sense to give a good result.
- Wade LeBlanc
Toronto Blue Jays
Vlad, Bichette, Grichuk
Toronto … Yes, Toronto! They are no longer Buffalo or Dunedin or America’s favorite team, they are back in Canada tonight for the first time in 2019 and while you may think they score 20 runs tonight, it’s tomorrow — a home game on a Saturday in Toronto — where they will absolutely go off for about 7 or 8 homers. But tonight isn’t bad either against Daniel Lynch, who is coming off a dominant performance last Sunday at the K. Poor little buddy, he’s not going to make it through the third inning tonight.
LA Dodgers
Seager, Bellinger, J.Turner, Smith
Corey Seager is back and they just traded for Trea Turner??? I realize that Seager is a FA and that they can play them both together, but Seager is back in Chase field tonight too? He loves hitting in Chase Field. One has to assume that we might even see Cody Bellinger start to heat up and I got even money that Zac Gallen suddenly comes down with a stomach bug and says ah hell no I’m not pitching against these fools tonight.
Brewers
Adames, Narvaez, Garcia, Wong, Tellez
Milwaukee is coming off a strong series vs Pittsburgh, but don’t sell me that they can’t go into Atlanta and say hot. Touki Toussaint is the next version of Julio Teheran in my mind, and with that comes really good and then WTF Touki! He’s been very good of late but Milwaukee in 90 degree Atlanta to me has a ton of good value upside in this lineup.
Mariners
Haniger, France, Seager, Raleigh
More of a FanDuel play based on price but these four look strong vs Kolby Allard and it’s a weak bullpen down in Texas.
Other hitting targets (quite a few today)
- Phillies vs Pirates — Two bad pitchers and good value in Bryan Reynolds/KeBryan Hayes for Pirates + Bryce (LiPNC) and McCutchen back in Pittsburgh. Smells like an 8-6 game.
- Tigers — Harvey has pitched well, no doubt. Harvey is still harvey though and Miggy is white hot chasing #500.
Dont even think about playing
- Washington whothefuckaretheseguys
- Chicago Cubs
- Miami Marlins
- Texas Rangers
- Cleveland whateveryoucallems
- Minnesota whateveryoucallems
With fifteen games there’s always temptation to build multiple lineups. Tonight breaks down as such, if you do one lineup you can spread it out easily to ensure not taking on too much risk at pitcher. If you are doing multiple lineups then roll with 4 and 5 man stacks to keep your sanity about having one guy in the wrong lineup versus another.
CATCHER
- Will Smith
- Willson Contreras … vs Lester, his former pitcher – duh
- Cal Raleigh … Best value C available.
FIRST BASE
- Vladdy G Jr. … Tough to justify his price right? Well, he probably hits two tonight.
- Miguel Cabrera … Chasing #500 and has been on fire of late, just like old man Votto
- Shohei Ohtani
SECOND BASE
- Jake Cronenworth
- Jonathan Schoop
- Whit Merrifield
THIRD BASE
This position has turned into a wasteland of inconsistent hitters outside of Austin Riley who has a really bad SP matchup against Corbin Burnes.
- Ke’Bryan Hayes
- Maikel Franco
- Justin Turner
- Patrick Wisdom
SHORTSTOP
- Corey Seager
- Bo Bichette
- Willy Adames
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Eloy Jimenez … Expected to re-join the lineup after an injury precaution the other day and at $3200 with a solid matchup vs JC Mejia he’s the first OF to plug into lineups today.
- Mitch Haniger
- Bryce Harper
- Randal Grichuk – My favorite of the Jays OF tonight.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Nelson Cruz
- Mark Canha … Sandoval’s no no bid will end after 1 AB tonight.
- Andrew McCutchen
- Bryan Reynolds
OUTFIELD – Value
- Austin Hays
- Robbie Grossman
- Avisail Garcia
The Dongers Club
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – 1B – Blue Jays – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Corey Seager – SS – Dodgers
- Willson Contreras – C – Cubs
- Mitch Haniger – OF – Mariners
- Eloy Jimenez – OF – White Sox
- Bryce Harper – OF – Phillies
- Jake Cronenworth – 2B – Padres
- KeBryan Hayes – 3B – Pirates
- BONUS …………………… Shohei Ohtani – 1B/OF – Angels
BETS
- Pirates/Phillies OVER 9
- Blue Jays ML
- Athletics ML
- Mariners -1.5
- Dodgers/Diamondbacks OVER 9
The Chalkiest Stacks
Blue Jays, Tigers, White Sox
Good Teams Getting Overlooked
Dodgers
Best Leverage Play against Chalk
Not a high leverage spot with 15 games out there today.
Favorite DK Pitching Combinations
Lynn and Taillon
FAVORITE HITTERS
Vladimir Guerrero Jr
Randal Grichuk
Corey Seager
Eloy Jimenez