Seven games on the FanDuel early slate, six games on the DraftKings early slate, which is just weird.  Also weird is the fucking debauchery that was the umpires tossing Pablo Lopez last night because he hit poor Ronald Acuna Jr in the shoulder.  I don’t think we have seen a bigger baby fake “superstar” than Acuna in a long time and I get that he didnt like getting hit by Jose Urena even though it was handled and it was not that big of a deal when it happened — but for the Braves to come out and try to “DEFEND” their player the way they did last night is total bullshit and the umpires let a manager manipulate them when that never happens.   End of rant, although Acuna will be gone from baseball long before Tatis, Soto and Vlad Jr will be, so there is that.

 

WEATHER & STUFF

All games play, slight rain before the Phillies game but they should get through it I would think without major issues.

 

This is a rough and dirty pitching slate, lots of guys will have trouble today but avoid the negatives with the safer options.

Yu Darvish

At the end of the day I see Darvish allowing the least amount of damage with the highest amount of strikeouts, and that’s what we want correct?  Of all the afternoon games the one in Philly is probably the most comfortable one with temps barely hitting 70 degrees and the Phillies lineup has enough guys who might as well be swinging with their eyes closed today (Herrera, Segura, Miller) against Darvish that he should avoid long innings.  A Rhys solo HR won’t be that bad.

Zach Eflin

The two mid range pitchers I expect to be good enough today are Eflin and Duffy but the Royals are still doing weird things with limiting pitchers and what not so Eflin gets the slight nod over Duffy, which means you are looking at a kind of expensive SP gamestack on DraftKings but one that should result with the two highest scoring pitchers.  Eflin has been much better at home but like Darvish, he too is giving up a solo HR.

Griffin Jax

Hey cool, a near min price pitcher that the Royals have never seen after they just popped off for a bunch of runs.  I have seen this story before and with shitty secondary pitching options I can get away with reading it again.  I wouldn’t expect more than a 12 here though.

 

Favorite three games for offense

Cubs vs Reds

Bryant/Rizzo/Heyward/Happ/Joc … Winker/Naquin/Votto/Tucker B

The entire Cubs lineup is a poster child for Tyler Mahle’s entire career.  Boom or bust hitters.  Bryant in particular loves Mahle, but Rizzo, Heyward, Joc all should profile well for HR upside in this game, another chance for the Cubs to pop off in their favorite stadium this afternoon and Mahle is continuing to come back to earth after a scorching hot start.  Adbert Alzolay also is really struggling of late but they were against some good teams so I would expect a bounce back of sorts however he cannot handle LH batters at all, giving up .336 ISO and a .387 xWOBA to them on the season.  I do believe that would be Tyler Naquin and Jesse Winker’s music.

White Sox vs Tigers

Abreu/Vaughn/Moncada/Anderson … Schoop/Haase/Diaz

I can see this game flying under the radar but Keuchel and Skubal have some really tough spots here today.  The wind is blowing out fairly well and it’s warm which plays Comerica up a ton in day games.  Skubal is pitching really well this season but still has a ton of old Robbie Ray in him and Tim Anderson/Jose Abreu are dangerous 1-2 punch for the White Sox in a game stack on the Chicago side.  For Detroit, how does one not love Jonathan Schoop, career 6-16 off Keuchel with 2 HR and juts 1 K.  The Tigers will put the ball in play against Keuchel today seeing him for the second time this season.

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves

Jesus, Jazz and Adam – which totally sounds like a Christian Southern Rock band

Is today the 4th of July?  Because we’re gonna see some fireworks.  I don’t care if the Marlins have put up 0 runs the last two times I recommended them, as someone once said — third time is a charm and this game should have all the fireworks in the world.  So those who are complaining can just pound sand here.

 

Bats Fade

Twins at Royals

 

FanDuel Stack

Jays and Rays … Have to love Lowe/Meadows for the Rays in this game and the middle infield on the rest of the games is weak so Semien/Bichette for Toronto look favorable but Springer (3700) and Teoscar (3400) on FanDuel are the keys to the Jays stack today.  Game should have some solo HR power in it but probably finishes right around the 10 total, 6-4 Rays get a win on the road.

 

CATCHER

1. Eric Haase
2. Omar Narvaez

FIRST BASE

1. Jose Abreu
2. Rhys Hoskins
3. Freddie Freeman

SECOND BASE

1. Jonathan Schoop
2. Jazz Chisholm – $3500 good value here.

THIRD BASE

1. Kris Bryant
2. Yoan Moncada
3. Jeimer Candelario – $3600 good value here

SHORTSTOP

1. Tim Anderson
2. Javy Baez
3. Kevin Newman – Value

OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore

1. Christian Yelich
2. Jesse Winker
3. Tyler Naquin
4. Jason Heyward

OUTFIELD – Tier 2

1. Ian Happ
2. Nelson Cruz
3. Starling Marte
4. Austin Meadows / The entire Jays Outfield on FanDuel but in particular Teoscar Hernandez

OUTFIELD – Value

1. Andrew Vaughn – Back on fire now, young guys are gonna be streaky always and he is on a hot one right now, almost a must play if you game stack those high priced SP’s.
2. Adam Duvall
3. Something about Mary (Daz Cameron)

 

The Dongers Club

1. Christian Yelich – OF – Brewers – Chairman of the Dongers Club
2. Jason Heyward – OF – Cubs
3. Jesse Winker – OF – Reds
4. Kris Bryant – 3B – Cubs
5. Freddie Freeman – 1B – Braves
6. Eric Haase – C – Tigers
7. Brandon Lowe – 2B – Rays
8. Bo Bichette – SS – Blue Jays
9. BONUS ……………. Ian Happ – OF – Cubs

 

BETS

• OVERS CLUB:   Cubs/Reds, Marlins/Braves, Sox/Tigers
• UNDERS CLUB:   Twins/Royals

 

HR PARLAY

Saturday Boys:  Yelich – Hoskins – Cruz

 

LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS

THE HIGHEST CHALK STACK(S)

Twins, Brewers, Reds

LOW(er) OWNED GOOD TEAMS

Nobody fits what the intention of this category is today.

LEVERAGE STACKS/PLAYS

Pitchers in Royals/Twins game.

DK PITCHERS

Darvish/Eflin

FD PITCHERS

Darvish

CORE HITTERS

Christian Yelich

Andrew Vaughn

Kris Bryant

 

TALKING TO MYSELF …

So which thing did I write up or mention that is more gut than data and could possibly fuck me over the most?

Without question the Cubs and Reds.  It’s a game with good weather and a tiny ballpark which the Cubs have a history of destroying in and Tyler Mahle has certainly shown to go south really bad lots of times in his career but he also has a little Jake Junis in him (okay fine, Junis has a little Mahle in him) which is to go completely off with 5 or 6 strikeouts in a row and Alzolay has some good stuff too but his in ability to consistently miss LH bats is big trouble vs the Reds.  But if a game goes completely opposite from what I suspect, it would be that one.

Hey, how come you didn’t pick on the Pirates with a SP?

Because it’s Eric Lauer coming off a great start, no thank you.

So Pirates bats?

What are you drunk?

Is Adam Duvall 2 HR the most obvious play today but you are just trying to not over hype it??