Happy Thursday, a really cool MLB schedule today and here is the data dump you need.
We have what I am considering the ‘Main’ Slate locking at Noon today, which FanDuel has split into two smaller slates because I guess that’s what they do and sure fine. Then there is a three game evening slate tonight which begins just before 10PM EST and quite honestly nobody really cares about that for now because the first rule of the tilt slate is you don’t talk about the tilt slate until the first slate is an hour old.
In between those, we have the game in Iowa at the Field of Dreams between the Yankees and White Sox on FOX — which honestly should be quite interesting to watch but not really for DFS outside of showdown.
WEATHER
Then there is the weather today.
We shouldn’t have the storm/rain issues we have had the last two nights with delayed starts but holy sweaty balls batman. It’s near 100 in many stadiums today.
Once again, a pitcher against the Cubs is kind of the way to go. I want to toot the horn here of the Dashboard — and also my call that Cody Bellinger was about to get hot — but mainly the Dashboard. If you simply pulled up the Dashboard yesterday and said okay, my pitchers are going to come from one of the top group guys because they are VERY highly rated and my stacks are going to come from one of the bottom rated pitchers opponents then you had a really good chance at a profitable day. This has been the case for a while now, and it’s not as simple as just reading it and taking 1-2-3 and moving on, but for assessing the data, it’s the best place to start to narrow down probabilities.
For example today, we have Woodruff vs CHC who is above the 100 threshold and part of this is Woody himself but the other side is just how bad the Cubs lineup is. Yes, weather could be an impact, but if you dont hit the ball can the wind push it over the fence? I think Science indicates no, but I’m not clear on Science these days. Chris Bassitt is the only other top tier pitcher on the model, so right away that tells me to look around for alternative #2’s if I am just blindly reading the model. Make sense? It’s a probability thing. If there are 6-7 guys who grade extremely well then chances of not getting 2 of them are very minimal.
Now, for the 12PM slate recommendations.
Brandon Woodruff
Woody is not going to post a career day like Burnes did, but of the Cubs projected 8 hitters today only 3 of them have a game in the last week with more than double digit DK fantasy points and one of those was five days ago for Frank Schwindel — who is basically the offspring of either Wayne or Garth. Although that would mean he is around 30 years old — which uh, he is! Hey, wait a minute. Is he the offspring of Garth and Dreamwoman?? Anyways, he’s horrible. The Cubs have one hitter with an xWOBA over .350 against RHP and that’s Raffy Ortega. Every hitter in this lineup has a strikeout rate above 20%. They make the Chicago Bears history of Quarterbacks look good and that’s impressive.
Michael Fol….
Just kidding. Or am I?
No, I am most definitely kidding here. Please don’t play Folty unless its a gamestack with Marco and you are just executing the oh well button. He has a ceiling of about 14 points.
Marco Gonzales
I am not kidding on this one. Marco G vs Michael Foltynewczocwoncohzitz is the last game on this slate and it’s one in which we could see minimal weather impact. One of the under reported stories in fantasy is how much Seattle has calmed down as an offensive ballpark with the humidor installed there. It used to have plenty of times to play small, but the Mariners are not a great offensive team (just ok) and their pitching has become really good. So expect a low scoring game here with Marco pitching very well for Seattle against a Texas lineup that doesn’t give him much fits.
Additional Pitching Notes …
- The Mets and Nationals will be playing a double-header today. The two potential pitchers for New York are Marcus Stroman and Trevor Williams. I’m going to wind up passing on whichever one is the early game starter, but they both are logical thoughts to pitch well.
- Tanner Houck is back for Boston. We saw them baby him despite a great outing vs Toronto last Saturday. He’s more expensive and facing an angry Rays team. Do not touch.
- Mitch White is the expected opener for the Dodgers while Ranger Suarez is the expected opener for the Phillies. No length from either.
- I could care less who the Nationals start.
ATHLETICS
Olson, Canha, Marte
Was all set to come in here and have to put on my best sales man hat on the Athletics before they finally woke up last night. But the rules when it comes to Lefties in Cleveland are that everyone gets theirs at some point in the series. Seth Brown on Tuesday, Jed Lowrie last night and …. yeah, Mitch Moreland today! No, we aren’t trusting Mitch Moreland people. This is Matt Olson’s game and we are just living in it. Good ole Eli Morgan is pitching too well of late despite having some really troubling underlying numbers. The regression will be strong with him today and strong as in he’s gone by the third inning.
ORIOLES
Santander, Franco, Mullins
Baltimore is the logical play against Matt Manning and in a near 100 degree Camden Yards mid afternoon we should expect this game to explode for the Orioles. While I believe in Mannings talent overall, this is still a tough park for him to try to get by with a strong game. He should be able to get some strikeouts vs the Orioles but Santander, Franco and Mullins all grade out well
DODGERS
Taylor, Turner & Turner, Bellinger
Are the Dodgers the best day game team that nobody knows about? I say this because all their day games are typically 4PM games on Sunday’s, but I honestly believe it to be true. None the less, we start with the match-up, the ballpark and the recent form and nobody is getting hotter right now than Roadie Bellinger, who as long as they keep him on the bottom half of this lineup should continue to hit. We’ll see what Davey Roberts does with a lefty starter for the Phillies today, but I would expect a good game in Philly between these two clubs with good HR upside.
RAYS
Lowe, Choi, Meadows, Wendle
What happens when one team wins 20-8? The other comes back with a 10+ run game. Sorry Tanner Houck, I love your skill set, but Meadows is taking you deep.
Bad teams in good spots
Pirates: Sigh … Nobody wants to stack the Pirates. Lets just move on and bet the over here.
Mariners: It’ll actually be very warm out in Seattle too and if the roof is open that would be bad for Folty here. I bashed Seattle and the stadium, however it’s hard to go against the model on this one for some late value.
CATCHER
- Jacob Stallings
- Sean Murphy
- Cal Raleigh
FIRST BASE
- Matt Olson
- Trey Mancini
- Jonathan Schoop
SECOND BASE
- Jed Lowrie
- Abraham Toro
- Brandon Lowe … This is a Lowe and Meadows game for Tampa to respond on Boston.
THIRD BASE
- Justin Turner
- Maikel Franco
- Rodolfo Castro
SHORTSTOP
- Willy Adames
- Kevin Newman
- Trea Turner
OUTFIELD – MT RUSHMORE
- Starling Marte … Had some disappointing big AB last night, will have a big game today and at $5800 I bet he is maybe 8% owned or so.
- Anthony Santander
- Cedric Mullins
- Austin Meadows
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Bryce Harper
- Mitch Haniger
- Chris Taylor
OUTFIELD – Value
- Bryan Reynolds
- Dylan Carlson
- Jake Fraley
- Jarren Duran
The Dongers Club
- Austin Meadows – OF – Rays – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Matt Olson – 1B – Athletics
- Abraham Toro – 2B – Mariners
- Justin Turner – 3B – Dodgers
- Trea Turner – SS – Dodgers
- Starling Marte – OF – Athletics
- Cedric Mullins – OF – Orioles
- Cal Raleigh – C – Mariners
- BONUS ………………. Anthony Santander – OF – Orioles
BETS:
- Pirates/Cardinals OVER 9 … This time for sure!
- Dodgers ML
- Tigers/Orioles OVER 11
- Rays ML
MOST POPULAR TEAMS
Orioles, Red Sox
GOOD TEAMS GETTING OVERLOOKED
Rays, Athletics, Dodgers
FAVORITE DK PITCHERS
Woody and Marco
BEST LEVERAGE/SLEEPER PLAY
John Means
FAVORITE HITTERS
Austin Meadows
Matt Olson