DAILY-AMBUSH · August 13, 2021

The Dongers Club – August 13th

We made it to Friday, congrats!   Friday the 13th in fact, and there are 14 games today with no afternoon game but that is okay because the Field of Dreams game last night was worthy of reducing Friday to a 14 game slate instead of 15 games.

 

DONGERS CLUB CHAMPIONSHIPS

Below are the standings for the Qualifier round, which concludes tonight (CLICK HERE TO ENTER).  As a reminder the qualifier rounds are scored based on the standings of each of the contests with 25 points going to first place, 21 points to 2nd, 17 to third and then trickling down after that.  So even if you are outside of the top 9 who will advance to the pool play, you are still alive if you can finish first tonight and get a couple good breaks here or there.  Basically the scoring is designed such that everyone who finishes 1st in the three rounds is almost assured of making it or should have a really good shot at it.

Rank Contestants Standings Total Pts Q1 Q2
1 hutchs72 46 246.3 25 21
2 jetersgirl79 35 219.95 10 25
3 CJNIII 26 215.45 11 15
4 miltiades 22 193.55 21 1
5 bigfly11 20 199.1 14 6
6 sogr8player 18 184.4 1 17
7 StevieFranchise 18 160.45 17 1
8 Thewretched38 17 197.45 7 10
9 sdchickens 17 194.95 9 8
redraiderbt 15 185.15 1 14
ramfan9776 15 123.85 15 0
Markp64 14 152.35 1 13
mfarriswv 14 189.1 13 1
ComingUpShort 13 156.1 12 1
JMondeci77 12 89.35 0 12
rollacoaster 12 185.4 1 11
betterthangary 12 182.45 3 9
embaptiste2981 10 180.7 5 5
shef10 8 128.6 1 7
chuck2311 8 112.85 8 0
Zverneris7 7 177.95 4 3
calsham 7 163.95 6 1
BeenThereDabThat1989 5 172.4 1 4
jbishop3258 3 159.95 1 2
tequilamike 3 146.9 2 1
chriscox1981 2 140.3 1 1
sgilbert22 2 156 1 1
Sports_guru98 2 160.25 1 1
Huebs 2 150.4 1 1
michurley 2 163.25 1 1
bkslast 2 158.45 1 1
mavrik6674 2 143.4 1 1
Whiskeypeddler 1 87.75 1 0
SKG1000 1 75.75 1 0

 

WEATHER

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – Ugly, but could play if they force it in.  I say cross it off.

 

This is what I would refer to as a flat and deep pitching slate.  There are some guys having great seasons like Zack Wheeler, Charlie Morton, Robbie Ray at the top of our list but only Wheeler is above the 10k price mark on DK. 

  • Then there’s a deep pool of good above average arms like Julio Urias, Jack Flaherty (Back from long IL stint), Anthony DeSclafani…
  • We have the young kids who at times show flashes like Shane McClanahan, Austin Gomber, Josiah Gray, Jesus Luzardo, Zach Plesac, Dane Dunning…
  • And of course, we have the old veterans who are still taking the mound and giving it their best in Zack Greinke, Madison Bumgarner, Mike Minor and Brett Anderson…

In short, there’s a ton of options tonight and when it’s flat like this you shouldn’t worry too much about the chalk.

ROBBIE RAY

We didn’t need to be cute with Michael Folty(hell no I’m not gonna try to spell his name again) against Seattle yesterday, but had we gone there it would have worked out just fine.  Seattle doesn’t hit much at home, it’s been an extreme pitchers park all season long, and it should be once again tonight, because this is how you do a run on sentence ladies and gentlemen.  But looking at the match-up, we see a team in Seattle who has been terrible against LHP/Sliders and when Ray faced them back in late June his slider had a 46% CSW and got 43% swing rate on pitches outside of the zone.  It’s hard to expect Seattle to just come out today and be able to lay off that pitch and with all the other factors tonight I can see this being a nice 7 or 8 inning outing for Robbie Ray if his command is on even slightly.

ADBERT AZOLAY

He is extremely good against RHB and gives up hard hit balls to lefties.  What a perfect scenario for him then to take on a Miami team who is returning from a long west coast trip and has no power from the left side of the plate what so ever.  A relatively pitcher friendly park, a lineup that strikeouts at a high amount and a DFS friendly $7,600 price tag on Adbert tonight makes him someone that is really hard to overlook

SHANE McCLANAHAN

His pitch-type splits against this Twins projected lineup are off the charts.  34.2% strikeout rate, 0.303 xWOBA and a sub .400 xSLG.  It all should add up for another 20+ point outing from McClanahan at sub $8,000.  Gotta like him in this spot.

CHARLIE MORTON

Washington can be a little pesky at home but I’ll come around on stopping with the hate against Uncle Charle this evening because their lineup is still mostly AAA hitters at best.  I expect a good amount of run support for Morton today as the Braves see Josiah the second time and he should get them through 6 or 7 innings with a relatively good score today.

 

I am not on Jack Flaherty (pitch count limit should come into play).

 

If the Brewers game looks clear to go for 9 innings tonight (Rain issues), then they are one of the best statistical plays on the slate.  But I think it’s a bad rain game…  And this is a slate which stacking to me does not sound appealing.  There is a chalk team tonight which I am not touching with 14 games and lots of decent spots spread around.  So when you see a team listed at the top here it doesn’t mean I am saying they’re the spot to lock in and go heavy on — it’s just the order in which they stood out to me.

RAYS

Cruz, Franco, Lowe, Zunino

Welcome back to Minnesota Nelson Cruz.  The guy who has played for a ton of American League teams now can enact his “revenge” theory on Minnesota, not that he should be upset that they sent him to a spot where he can win a World Series, but the park was always a nice fit for Nelson Cruz and he’ll be facing Michael Pineda along with the rest of Tampa today.  Given Pineda’s struggles, we should most certainly be looking at the Rays for a nice stack tonight.

DODGERS

Bellinger, Trea Turner, Seager

I love L.A.!   It’s a song and it’s better than New York, New York tonight as Roady Bellinger, Trea Turner and the rest of the Dodgers are coming in to put a beat down on the Mets this weekend.

CARDINALS

Arenado, Goldschmidt, O’Neill

Interleague series between the Royals and Cardinals shifts over to Kauffman Stadium and the Cards two headed GOATs will get a nice RvL match-up against Mike Minor.  Minor has been hit hard of late and should have a hard time avoiding the heart of the Cardinals order tonight.

 

 

Today is a very good one off slate instead of stack+stack. 

CATCHER

  1. Mike Zunino
  2. Yadier Molina
  3. Carson Kelly – Arizona vs SD is one of those under the radar games.  No reason for these lefties to not get hammered today.

FIRST BASE

  1. Paul Goldschmidt
  2. Freddie Freeman – Has gone on a little homerless draught and was sick earlier this week but should feel better in one of his favorite parks.
  3. Trey Mancini
  4. Miguel Cabrera – They sat him yesterday hoping he could hit #500 at home and at $2900 he’ll be a value play all weeken for sure.

SECOND BASE

  1. Jean Segura
  2. Ketel Marte
  3. Brandon Lowe

THIRD BASE

  1. Nolan Arenado
  2. Mike Moustakas
  3. Jose Ramirez

SHORTSTOP

  1. Amed Rosario
  2. Corey Seager
  3. Carlos Correa

OUTFIELD – MT RUSHMORE

  1. Kyle Tucker — Tucker has hit LHP just fine once again this season and comes in with 3 of his last 4 in double digits and a long history (for him) of tearing up Angels pitching out in Anaheim, which is a good park for lefties ever since they lowered right field.  While Sandoval has been pretty good, he can still be a nice under the radar target with a really good offense like Houston.  Tucker is in my core tonight.
  2. Nelson Cruz — Return to Minnesota, he should do here what he did in Baltimore last weekend.
  3. George Springer — Dude loves T-Mobile Park
  4. Cody Bellinger — The heater declaration I made about 5 days ago has come true, and like everyone else in this tier he seems to enjoy the park he is going into

OUTFIELD – Tier 2

  1. Franmil Reyes
  2. Austin Meadows
  3. Jesse Winker
  4. Bryce Harper
  5. Wil Myers

OUTFIELD – Value

  1. Tyler ONeill
  2. Dominic Smith
  3. Anthony Santander
  4. Harold Ramirez

 

The Dongers Club

  1. Nolan Arenado – 3B – Cardinals – Chairman of the Dongers Club
  2. Kyle Tucker – OF – Astros
  3. Cody Bellinger – OF – Dodgers
  4. George Springer – OF – Blue Jays
  5. Jean Segura – 2B – Phillies
  6. Mike Moustakas – 3B – Reds
  7. Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Cardinals
  8. Amed Rosario – SS – Indians
  9. BONUS ………………. Trea Turner – 2B/SS – Dodgers

BETS

  • Indians ML
  • Orioles/Red Sox UNDER 11.5
  • Cardinals/Royals OVER 8.5
  • Tampa Rays ML
  • Padres/DBacks OVER 8.5

 

MOST POPULAR TEAMS

  1. Red Sox – Boston is very jeckyl and hyde right now and is blindly being plugged in vs the Orioles.  I am not touching a heavy Boston stack and we had our fun with them two nights ago.  Bad chalk to the 10th degree tonight in my mind.
  2. Indians – This is a good chalk to consider.  Seeing Alexander twice in a row should go their favor this time.
  3. Blue Jays – Springer only

GOOD TEAMS GETTING OVERLOOKED

  1. Dodgers
  2. Astros

FAVORITE DK PITCHERS

  1. Ray & McClanahan
  2. Azolay & Morton

BEST LEVERAGE/SLEEPER PLAY

  1. Zach Plesac
  2. Julio Urias

FAVORITE HITTERS

  1. Nolan Arenado
  2. Jean Segura
  3. Kyle Tucker

 

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