Happy Sunday everyone. These quiet Sundays for MLB action are quickly winding down as NFL approaches and while the MLB content continues through September and into the first two rounds of the playoffs, there is a time where we stop doing Sunday articles because the largest contest on any site gets too small to warrant doing Sunday articles when there are regular season NFL games. So enjoy them while they last and today we do not have Coors Field on the main slate and we do not have Coors Field on the tilt afternoon slate either, so that’s kind of nice although it’ll probably go under and the chalk would have busted minus a Jesus Aguilar HR.
The weather is perfect today as you can see here in the graphic below, we have sunshine and other, stuff…. They say the roofs will be closed in Milwaukee and Houston.
Who am I not using and why?
Alot of times on Sunday’s we have historically seen a slight underdog pitcher in the mid range come out and wind up being the top scoring player on the slate. Not someone who is a heavy underdog, but just a slight dog usually on a below average team and nobody has them because why would you play that type of guy. You know, the Trevor Williams’ of the world, right? Well, today smells exactly like that for me. While Zack Wheeler is sitting there looking pretty against a Mets lineup which prior to the Phillies letting Chuck from section 215 come down and pitch the start of the 9th inning couldn’t hit a damn thing, I don’t honestly want to trust him against his former team and not in a scenario where I still believe in the Mets in this ballpark. Not to mention Wheeler as we have identified hasn’t been the 9-11 strikeout range guy since back in April-May.
Next up is Lance McCullers Jr, who has given me the middle finger ever since I said he was going to hit a wall given that he has never pitched this much in a season. But coming off his really really good performance in LA this is where we trust the data on the dashboard. His DCPA K% against the top 6 projected hitters for the Twins as of right now is a low 17.3%, which is far below what their average K% is and what McCullers average K% is. When we have that scenario historically it doesn’t mean that the pitcher fails but it does mean that he is far more likely to not perform up to expectations, so I am trusting the data here that McCullers won’t post up another 30 point game however he is without a doubt the most “secure” pitcher in my mind today to get a 17. You want a 17 for 10k? You would probably say no, but then when you get offered a -3 as an alternative from someone else you’ll say yes. Lance is okay today. Not great. Just okay.
MAX FRIED
Easily my favorite pitcher today to pick on the Nationals lineup. Fried has really improved upon his command this season, pitches well at home (3.14 ERA, only 3 HR in 51.2 IP) and after choking away last nights game I would be shocked if the Braves lost this game behind a solid performance from him.
KENTA MAEDA
![GIF] Maeda Warming Up: baseball](http://i.imgur.com/8OtBs8U.gif)
You didn’t see that name coming now did you. When writing the bottom section on lineup construction I will often refer to a good team getting overlooked, which means a team who is decent but in their match-up nobody is considering them even though they could wind up delivering. Kenta will fall into that role today in a game that I am projecting to be low scoring and he provides some nice leverage against any McCullers chalk out there if the Twins can steal the series today. The Astros aren’t a team we would normally pick on but at home with the roof closed and mostly getting production from their b-tier players this could be the right time to jump on them. The only guys who have ever seen Maeda are Jason Castro, Aledmys Diaz and Martin Maldanado of which obviously one of them (C) isn’t going to play and that should heavily favor Kenta who can be tough to figure out if you haven’t seen him before. Maeda really mixes up his pitches well and we certainly know the Astros prefer to know what’s coming. Ride Kenta as a slight dog for only $7,200 today to pitch well and match McCullers.
HYUN-JIN RYU
I said Boston early yesterday before JD Martinez was scratched because it was a short slate and I felt we should take a shot on a good team that’s low owned. But JD scratched because of COVID and all the other problems right now with this team really makes you want to touch the sleeping dog. They say let sleeping dogs lie, and it is the dog days of summer right now, but what if I told you that Ryu is 17-3 with a 1.63 ERA and a 8.93 K/9 in 28 career starts on Sunday’s in his career? Pretty darn impressive random stat there folks. Again, let a sleeping dog lie and just don’t piss them off is my initial thought but tell me right now who on Boston is going to hit Ryu? They certainly didnt’ hit him last time they saw him in Buffalo on July 29th… Gotta consider Ryu.
Guys I gave some consideration too, but are not on my list
I really like the two above or pairing one of them with Lance or Wheeler should you just want to blindly play guys. Here’s the ones who I considered but just couldn’t justify over Max and Kenta.
- Luis Gil — Had a fantastic debut against the Orioles for min price, is now $6,700 and the Yankees bullpen got some rest yesterday so Aaron Boone likely has a quick hook. He will get hit the second time through the order and his ceiling is going to come crashing down on him. Fade.
- Zach Plesac — I gave strong consideration to Plesac, but the recent form is just too bad for me to trust him.
Sunday Dogs
- Patrick Corbin: No Freeman today, should be a low scoring game, would pair him with Fried if you did roster him, but he isn’t winning.
- Kris Bubic
Baltimore vs Tampa
Choi/Meadows … Mancini/Mullins
Michael Wacha vs Jorge Lopez. Bad enough that we should pick on, but weird enough to not necessarily do a full game stack, although I believe Baltimore is going to destroy Wacha despite him having historically his better games in the afternoon. But we’re going to see Trey Mancini and Ji-Man Choi battle for who can be the first to hit their second homer of the game and this is not something to be concerned with which one you have because I love them both. I’ll have Mancini though as Wacha is a perfect match-up for him to hit it out into the right field bleachers above the grounds crew bullpen.
Choi meanwhile depends on being in the lineup (Update: Confirmed batting 2nd) and where he hits, but if he is ahead of Nelson Cruz then how do we not love that? The Tampa guy though should be obvious, it’s Austin Meadows Sunday and he’s not visiting Baltimore without a homer. Okay, the more I sit here and think about it, the more I can talk myself into having 4 guys in this game no matter what.
Cincinnati Reds
Castellanos, India, Farmer, Suarez
Siigh… C’mon Pirates, don’t you have someone better you can roll out to pitch today? Bryse Wilson doesn’t belong pitching in the big leagues anymore, much less starting against the tearing the cover off the ball Reds at home. I love the other teams above, so Reds aren’t where I start build today but we’ve still got a cheap Castellanos ($4,000), the on fire Jonathan India ($4,800) and everyone’s favorite Farmer, Kyle ($3,900). Also, don’t look now but one Eugenio Suarez is quickly turning things around too.
Cleveland Indians
Zimmer, Ramirez, Franmil, Gimenez
Jose Ramirez, thank you, next question. Wily Peralta is a target, as is the Detroit bullpen, and there will most certainly be a home run in the first inning in this game, likely from Jose Ramirez but a good chance the 1-4 part of Cleveland has themselves a field day today.
San Francisco Giants
Ruf, Bryant, Flores, Slater
Extremely tough game to project, but this is the best low owned good team. Giants vs LHP? Heck yes. Brett Anderson’s last two starts have been gems against Pittsburgh and Atlanta, but this is a much better lineup and a really tough game to get a feel for. They wont make my main lineup but for a 3 entry max play they are there. All or nothing with this game.
Other:
- Mets (McNeil, Dom Smith, Conforto)
- Royals (Perez, Merrifield, Olivares)
FADE – That other team, which plays up ye north …
Yes… I know. I knooow. I know, I know, I know. I totally know who is pitching here. I … yep. Just… Keep walking. Lets not talk about it, there’s one guy that we probably have to consider here, but its a deep position and, I know. Yes, I know… Yes… keeep on moving… Next…
CATCHER
A benefit of a value pitcher today would get you one of the more premium catchers who are in good spots
- Mike Sunday Z-Pack Zunino
- Salvador Perez
- Kyle Higashioka
FIRST BASE
- Trey Mancini
- Ji-Man Choi
- Joey Votto
SECOND BASE
- Whit Merrifield – $4000 vs Lester? On a Sunday? In America???? Where’s the catch?
- Jonathan India
- Jeff McNeil
THIRD BASE
- Jose Ramirez
- Eugenio Suarez
- Kyle Seager
SHORTSTOP
- Kyle Farmer
- Andres Gimenez
- Get weird and play someone like Richie Martin or Javier Baez
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Austin Meadows
- Cedric Mullins
- Odubel Herrera
- Dominic Smith
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Nelson Cruz … I am very nervous about Cruz pulling a Cargo today. If you don’t know, a Cargo is when a player goes on a HR streak and it always ends in a double dong. Because all Cargo hot streaks ended with a double dong. Now, Cruz just got hot when he came to Baltimore, so it’s only been two games, but… I mean. If you are going to go a 3rd Ray today, it has to be Cruz I would think
- Nick Castellanos
- Robbie Grossman … Was border line Mt. Rushmore vs Odubel.
- Harper, Bryce
OUTFIELD – Value
- Michael Conforto
- Randal Grichuk / Corey Dickerson … Whichever one starts.
- Bradley Zimmer
- Chips a Hoy Park
The Dongers Club
- Trey Mancini – 1B – Orioles – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Austin Meadows – OF – Rays
- Salvador Perez – C – Royals
- Whit Merrifield – 2B – Royals
- Jose Ramirez – 3B – Indians
- Kyle Farmer – SS – Reds
- Cedric Mullins – OF – Orioles
- Dominic Smith – OF – Mets
- BONUS …………………. Ji-Man Choi – 1B – Rays
BETS
- Tigers/Indians runs in first inning over 0.5
- Nationals/Braves UNDER 8.5
- Twins ML (+166)
HR Parlay
- Mancini, Merrifield, Ramirez, Dom Smith
The Chalkiest Stacks
Cincinnati Reds
Tampa Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Good Teams Getting Overlooked
The Milwaukee/San Francisco game is a tough one to read. Neither pitcher is one you would always avoid and San Francisco vs a lefty coming off an exceptional start in Brett Anderson (he dominated in Atlanta) is a team that should be more popular than they will be.
Best Leverage Play against Chalk
NY Mets
Favorite DK Pitching Combinations
Fried and Maeda
Maeda and Ryu
Kikuchi and Ryu
Hey, we might as well go with the full theme of asian pitchers today?
FAVORITE HITTERS
Trey Mancini
Jose Ramirez
Kyle Farmer
Austin Meadows
Good luck today! Here’s your Sunday hype video …