Overview
The Cup Series driers get their chance to run Watkins Glen International Sunday in Watkins Glen, New York. “The Glen” is an 11-turn, 3.40-mile road course made of asphalt and concrete. Road courses are their own animal as it may be easier to identify track similarities simply by looking at other road courses and the histories that drivers have at them. However, each road course has its own identity making it a true test of maneuvering a car from any direction. There are 90 laps to be run so, as was mentioned yesterday, dominator points will be scarce. Instead, we’ll be looking for drivers that can drive through the field and score place differential points while also finding some drivers that we can expect to finish near the front. With how far some of these drivers have improved on road courses over the years these races have truly become anyone’s guess as to who will have a chance to win.
Most comparable tracks: Any road course
*Note: all pricing is DraftKings focused
Dominators
These are the drivers that we can typically expect to, you guessed it, dominate the race. When we think dominator we are looking for guys that will be in a position to lead a hefty amount of laps as well as be able to turn over fastest laps.
Chase Elliott ($10,600)
Chase has set the standard for road course racing of late and it’s not really close. The defending Cup champion has won each of the last two races at The Glen leading 52 and 80 laps respectively. Considering that he’s starting back in 11th, he might not lead quite that many laps here but I still expect him to turn over some fast laps on his way to the front. In four road courses, this season Elliott has two wins (COTA, Road America) and three top five’s overall. He’s led 86 out of a possible 278 laps on road courses in 2021. Overall Elliott has seven wins in 16 career road course races with nine top five’s. Dominance like this is incredibly hard to avoid.
Brad Keselowski ($9,000)
In three of his last five trips to The Glen, Keselowski has led 20 or more laps. He’ll start on the pole on Sunday, a track at which he’s posted four top five’s in 10 trips. There was a stretch in which Keselowski had three straight second-place finishes at The Glen, a track in which Team Penske has had overall success at over the years. Starting position is a major factor here. In the past two years, the winner of this race has come from the first two rows. If Brad can get a jump early and hit his first few marks, he should be able to lead a solid chunk early at a more than manageable salary and could be overlooked considering some of the other high-dollar drivers that will grab more attention.
Also consider: Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,400), Kyle Larson ($10,200)
Place Differential Targets
The drivers that are starting farther back in the field than where they could be expected to finish. A lot of times due to a variety of qualifying situations some top drivers could start farther back in the field and make their way up through the field in a short period of time.
Kyle Busch ($10,900)
One of the highest owned drivers on Sunday will be Busch who starts way back at 20th. In 15 career starts at Watkins Glen Busch has two wins and six top five’s with an average finish of 6.5. He has four wins and 13 top five’s in 38 road course races overall so he’s no stranger to maneuvering and bumping around the track. Busch has posted a top 10 finish in three of the four road courses this season and considering the place differential available on Sunday it’s hard to avoid exposure to him at least in some capacity.
Chase Briscoe ($8,300)
Personally, I expected Briscoe to make more of an impact in his rookie season overall as he was a stud at the Xfinity level last season. With that said he does have the ability to get around the road course setting well and has displayed that this season with sixth-place finishes at COTA and Road America. In his only appearance at Watkins Glen he finished sixth in an Xfinity car in 2019. Starting back at 27th with an average finishing position of 20th on the season there is some room for place differential points especially on a road course for Briscoe.
Kurt Busch ($10,000)
Kyle’s brother Kurt is in an interesting position as far as building lineups for cash games goes. He’s expensive at 10K but he’s starting back in 17th allowing for a solid amount of place differential points. Over his last ten road courses, Busch has an average finish of 10.1 with four top five’s. Specifically this season Busch has finished in the top five on two road courses and the last time the series was at The Glen he finished 10th. Which high-dollar driver are you fading to get him in though? That’s the tough question.
Chris Buescher ($7,800)
In the four road courses, this season Buescher has finished in the top 20 at every one including an 11th place finish at the Daytona road course (started 30th) and a 13th place finish at COTA (started 28th). It might not always be pretty with Buescher but he typically drives a clean race and stays out of trouble. Starting back at 24th there’s plenty of room for improvement and a good finish.
Austin Dillon ($6,100)
Before he had car issues Dillon had been running a solid race yesterday in the Xfinity race. The added seat time should make for an easy transition for the driver of the 3 car on Sunday. He’ll start back at 16th so his place differential upside is somewhat limited but his salary helps make up for it.
Also consider: Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,300), Daniel Suarez ($7,500)
Dark Horse Driver
Joey Logano ($9,600)
Logano is a tricky proposition but considering that he’s starting on the front row and the fact that Team Penske has had success here it’s not out of the question to think he can lead a bunch of laps early en route to a solid finish. In fact if you take away Logano’s history overall at The Glen and look at his recent road course performances it’s tough to argue against him being a contender on Sunday and at a nice price point. Logano, a one-time winner at The Glen has finished 23rd or worse in his last three trips here. However, his last six road course appearances have resulted in an average finish of 5.8, three of which were top three’s. Logano won’t be a popular play as a dominator, more of a contrarian look with upside to win the race.
Driver’s I’ll have the most exposure to:
Chase Elliott ($10,600)
Chase Briscoe ($8,300)
Driver’s I’ll have little to no exposure to:
Christopher Bell ($8,800)
Ryan Blaney ($9,200)
Under the radar value play:
Ryan Preece ($5,500)
GOOD LUCK!!!