Overview
After an exciting Xfinity race on Saturday, the Cup cars hit Michigan Motor Speedway Sunday as we are coming down the wire. The drivers will turn over 200 laps for 400 miles on the two-mile superspeedway. Dominator points will be important here and nailing those dominators will be even more important. Kevin Harvick has won each of the last three races here in dominant fashion leading 90, 92, and 22 laps respectively. With that said, Sunday’s pole sitter looks to be as close to a lock as ever to dominate this race from the start. More on him and other below!
Most comparable tracks: Kansas Motor Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway
*Note: all pricing is DraftKings focused
Dominators
These are the drivers that we can typically expect to, you guessed it, dominate the race. When we think dominator we are looking for guys that will be in a position to lead a hefty amount of laps as well as be able to turn over fastest laps.
Kyle Larson ($11,500)
Larson has been the class of the Cup Series this season in his return back to action. In the number 5 Hendrick Motorsports car Larson has five wins, 13 top fives, and 17 top 10’s. On the 1-2 mile tracks, Larson has three wins and seven top-fives in 11 races with 1,364 laps led out of a possible 3,384. Larson won the race at Las Vegas earlier this season leading 103 laps. At Kansas, he led 132 laps after starting 32nd despite finishing 19th. Larson is pricey but he’s the favorite here to win and dominate.
Chase Elliott ($9,200)
There isn’t much of a drop-off if any at all in talent between Larson and his teammate Chase Elliott. There is, however, a major drop-off in salary between the two. Elliott will start on the front row with Larson at second and could just as easily get a jump early and lead a majority of the stage one laps. Earlier this season Elliott finished 13th at Las Vegas after leading 22 laps and finished fifth at Kansas after starting 17th. The driver of the number nine car finished in the top 10 at both Michigan races last season and he’s had a knack for success at this track after finishing second in each of his first three races here at the Cup series level.
Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,400)
Starting fifth in the field, Truex comes in with finishes of third, third, fourth, and third in his last four trips to Michigan. However in those races he started back at 18th, 12th, 15th, and 16th. Truex finished sixth at both Las Vegas and Kansas this season and has two of his four wins on 1-2 mile tracks. The Gibbs cars have nine top-fives at Michigan over the past two seasons which also bodes well for the driver of the 19 car.
Also consider:
Kyle Busch ($10,800)
Place Differential Targets
Christopher Bell ($8,100)
Bell will start Sunday’s race 28th after wrecking out last week at the Indy road course. In two races last season Bell had a 13th and 17th place finish at Michigan. Bell has had a good season with an average finish of 16th, four top fives, and 10 top 10’s. Priced down at $8,100 Bell is underpriced in my eyes and he should be a fairly popular driver.
Brad Keselowski ($9,800)
After two poor weeks in a row on road courses, Keselowski starts back at 20th at a track that he finished second at last season in the first race. Earlier this season Keselowski finished second at Las Vegas and third at Kansas and has had success at Michigan, Las Vegas, and Kansas overall throughout his career. Brad has four top five finishes in 11 races at 1-2 mile tracks this season and he’ll be looking to get some momentum going heading into the playoffs.
Austin Dillon ($8,000)
The last time the Cup series made its way to Michigan Dillon posted an eighth-place finish after starting 31st. Dillon has a 12th place finish at Las Vegas and a 10th place finish at Kansas this season with six top 10’s overall. Priced close to Bell I expect Dillon to be lower owned than the former and in what should be a good spot for the driver of the 3 car.
William Byron ($10,200)
Wild Bill will undoubtedly be under-owned as he is the primary place differential driver who was actually priced up this week. Byron has an average finish of 12th this season and has had success at Las Vegas, Kansas, and Michigan at every level in NASCAR to this point. Byron has reached the level in the Cup series, the level that I never thought he would, where he can get to the front in any race and dominate it when you wouldn’t expect it. In this spot with P.D. point available at low ownership, the upside is immense.
Also consider:
Joey Logano ($9,600)
- Logano has won five times at Michigan with 17 top 10’s in 24 races there.
Anthony Alfredo ($5,800)
- Dirt cheap punt option starting 35th.
Cole Custer ($7,000)
- Average finish of 21st this season. He’ll start 27th on Sunday.
Speedy Notes
Driver I have most exposure to: Kyle Larson
Driver I’m fading that worries me: Kevin Harvick
Driver I have zero interest in: Denny Hamlin
GOOD LUCK!!