Overview

The Xfinity cars hit Michigan Motor Speedway this week as we inch closer to the playoffs. The drivers will turn over 125 laps for 200 miles on the two-mile superspeedway. Dominator points will be important here and nailing those dominators will be even more important. During the 2019 race here (the Xfinity cars didn’t race here last year) the pole sitter (Paul Menard) led 56 laps while Christopher Bell led 36 starting second. During that race, just three drivers total led 20 or more laps. In 2018 Kyle Busch was on the pole and he led 29 laps. The eventual race winner Austin Dillon led 18 while starting 13th. No one else led more than 11 laps in that race. There are a couple of traps in the race as far as drivers go so I’ll be avoiding those and hope that you will also.

Most comparable tracks: Kansas Motor Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway

*Note: all pricing is DraftKings focused

Dominators

These are the drivers that we can typically expect to, you guessed it, dominate the race. When we think dominator we are looking for guys that will be in a position to lead a hefty amount of laps as well as be able to turn over fastest laps.

Austin Cindric ($10,000)

Cindric will be on the pole for the sixth time this season and the thought of him not getting out to an early lead doesn’t seem to process for me. As solid as A.J. Allmendinger has been, I don’t see him as much of a match for Cindric off the jump here on a superspeedway. Cindric has had success at Las Vegas with two top-fives in his last three races there but at the other most comparable track to Michigan, Kansas he’s struggled outside of a second-place finish in the first race there of 2020. Cindric’s best finish at Michigan was the 11th place finish there in 2019. It’s no secret that he’s improved since then and that based on the circumstances he should lead a good chunk of the first stage here Saturday.

Daniel Hemric ($9,800)

Ideally, it would be better if Hemric was starting closer upfront but that’s beside the point. It’s worth noting that Hemric has led the second-most laps and has the second-most fast laps in the series this season. The Gibbs cars have been good here historically and I don’t see that changing on Saturday. The driver of the 18-car has a second-place finish here in 2018 and has finished second and third in his last two races at Las Vegas respectively leading 74 laps in the latter. At Kansas Hemric has two second-place finishes in his last two races there and led 128 laps at the race he finished second at in 2018. All signs point to Hemric having a strong showing on Saturday but at a seemingly suppressed ownership.

Also consider:

Noah Gragson ($9,000)

Justin Haley ($8,700)

Place Differential Targets

Brandon Jones ($9,400)

One of the more chalky place-differential plays should be Jones starting back at 24th. On the season the driver of the number 19 Joe Gibbs machine has seven top fives and 11 top 10’s. That’s good. However, Jones has a terrible tendency to get into trouble. He’s wrecked out in six races this season. SIX! He also had a DNF because of car issues. Considering all of that chaos he has an average finish of 18th. In four races at Michigan, Jones has an average finish of 11th and has finished all four of those races. At Kansas, he’s had tremendous success winning twice. Jones will always be my enigma and I’ll go back to him in this spot.

Tyler Reddick ($10,500)

We have a couple of Cup regulars in this race and Reddick is one of them and personally the only one I’ll consider rostering. He’ll be driving the number 23 Our Motorsports car that he’s had success in this season. Outside of a disqualification at Homestead in a race that he finished second, Reddick has taken the 23 to a 12th place finish at Las Vegas, after starting 40th. Reddick has won at Michigan at the Xfinity level and had success at Kansas and Las Vegas. There’s no doubt in my mind that he’ll finish in the top 10 here.

Brandon Brown ($7,500)

Starting back at 25th, Brown is a more than solid mid-range P.D. play with an average finish of 17.5 on the season. He’s driven the number 68 car to two top fives and seven top 10’s. In the last five races at similar tracks, Brown has finished in the top 15 each time, 11th at Las Vegas this season, 11th and 15th there last season and 11th and 13th at Kansas in 2020. Brown hasn’t raced at Michigan since 2019 and he’s made great strides since then so I’m not going to look deep into his two sub-par finishes from 2018 and 2019. Loos for Brown to finish in the top 15 on Saturday with some upside for a few spots more.

Colby Howard ($6,500)

The 19-year-old Howard will start Saturday night’s race back in 38th with obviously plenty of room to improve. Earlier this season Howard finished 20th at Las Vegas, one of his three top 20 finishes on the campaign. With an average finish of 26th this season, Howard fits in as a solid floor P.D. play at a great value.

Also consider:

Brett Moffitt ($8,100)

• Seven top 10’s this season with an average finish of 17th.
• Has won twice at Michigan in the trucks series while adding a fourth and a sixth-place finish there.

Ryan Sieg ($7,400)

• Outside this season (due to a crash) Sieg has had great success at Las Vegas with 3rd, 5th, and 6th place finishes in three of his last four races there.
• In his last six races at Michigan, he’s finished no worse than 19th.

Speedy Notes

Driver I have most exposure to: Austin Cindric

Driver I’m fading that worries me: A.J. Allmendinger

Driver I have zero interest in: Bubba Wallace

GOOD LUCK!!