The College Football season continues to kick things off and we have so far seen more games lean towards the under as teams are getting their first real live action in this season. I would suspect overall that continues outside of a few of the games which have VERY wide spreads on them and we have one of those tonight. If you are of the type who likes to live dangerously then you could definitely play Arizona State -10 and the under 57, always a fun sweat! (no this isnt an official recommendation).
Here are tonights games, of which only 2 are not on FanDuel — so that is refreshing to have some synchronicity.
- Temple vs Rutgers
- Boise State vs UCF
- East Carolina vs Appalachian State
- South Florida vs NC State
- Ohio State vs Minnesota
- Bowling Green vs Tennessee
Two FCS/FBS games which are only on DraftKings
- Eastern Washington vs UNLV – Dk Only
- Southern Utah vs Arizona State – Dk Only
Let’s get into it …
TOP GAMES
Ohio State (-14) vs Minnesota
First off, each game as I said above should be treated with a little kid gloves and not expect some big back and forth shootout like we would see in early October. But Ohio State will turn things over to CJ Stroud at Quarterback and he has strong rushing ability against a team who was gashed on the ground a season ago. Usually with dual threat Quarterbacks I like when they have match-ups against bad passing defenses because if they are a rushing QB they will always find a way to run no matter what, but a soft passing defense helps keep them in very manageable situations the whole game. Minnesota isn’t expected to be too stout defensively against the pass either and Chris Olave is one of the remaining elite WR in all of college football this year. To think Stroud wouldn’t trust him here is foolish.
I could see Minnesota keeping things closer than the 14 point spread for a while and to do that, they’ll need Mohamed Ibrahim ($8,600) to have a strong game.
Boise State vs UCF (-5)
Now this is the best game stack on the board, but we didn’t start here because we had to get the Ohio State spot out of the way. Two fast paced teams meeting this early in the season will have everyone betting the over. HAMMER the first half under. But load it up in DFS and consider that somewhat of a hedge, but I expect the teams to run plenty of plays as the game moves along and it should remain close.
Dillon Gabriel and Jaylon Robinson will be popular all season and should make a statement for UCF, who I expect to win this game and cover the 5.
UCF has never been one to slow teams down defensively though, and one of the reasons I am so confident with Gabriel and Robinson is because their pass defense is going to have a hard time handling the high volume that Khalil Shakir always gets and at $6900 he is the high chalk play tonight.
Dillon Gabriel – UCF – $9,100
Gabriel is the #1 QB tonight for me if we ignore price. He’s the most talented QB and with a new coaching regime with Gus Malzahn taking over the program and he should rely upon his Junior Quarterback to do his magic early in this game. Cost is his only negative attribute here.
Hank Bachmeier – Boise State – $6,500
I do not feel this is a multi-Quarterback slate and with the Boise/UCF game being the favorite game on the slate I will take a value Quarterback in that spot who will most certainly be throwing the entire second half. Bachmeier doesn’t have the game log 350+ yard games that folks will want to trust, but he is facing a team who annually gives up a ton of yards through the air and he has two good healthy and experienced receivers in Khalil Shakir and CT Thomas — who are the main reasons I am backing into Bachmeier to throw for 300 and 2 TD today.
CJ Stroud – Ohio State – $8,000
I am a believer he can produce given the WR weapons he has here, so any Stroud lineups should have two of Olave, Wilson and Smith-Njigba.
FADE
Eric Barriere (WSU)
For just $5,200 we have the chalk value of the night. Eric Barriere is a FCS player of the year candidate who is 13-0 in his career at home but just 7-9 on the road and that’s where he will be tonight against a FBS opponent who isn’t considered that good in UNLV. I think if you are looking for a leverage situation on this short slate, this is the player to fade, but he’ll be 80% owned in Cash and single entry games tonight and certainly has the talent to shine, but I do not see him blowing up the slate. The reason why is UNLV is a balanced offense and will no doubt slow the tempo of the game down and Barriere has to get all of his production through the air. If he was going to be getting points via the ground game then no doubt we would lock him in, but the risk of first game of the season + opponent taking a slow it down approach has me expecting him to not get above 15 fantasy points tonight. Now, for $5,200 that doesn’t stink by any stretch, but I don’t think you’ll be sitting there saying man I needed his big game — because it’s not going to happen.
We have some bad rush defenses on this slate tonight, and we shouldn’t really overlook them too long. There is really good value at RB on this slate.
Charles Williams – UNLV – $5,900
In the NFL I have a belief in home mid range running backs who are favored. Well, it applies to college as well but a little more just favoring home running backs in general in college who are favored. Williams fits that mold, he should get the bulk of the work for UNLV’s backfield tonight and they’ll be leaning on him to keep Eastern Washington’s passing game off the field. Williams will not only win the slate in my mind but also keep E.B. and EWU off the field.
Camerun Peoples – App State – $6,900
Bowl season is when teams signal the changing of the guard from one season to the next. Appalachian State who once had Darrynton Evans (very good) transitioned to Peoples in their bowl game last season when he had over 300 yards and 5 touchdowns. He is their guy to attack an Eastern Carolina defense which yielded over 5 yards per carry a season ago.
Zonovan Knight – NC State – $6,100
Knight has not been a heavy bell cow back for the Wolfpack, who really spread things around on their depth chart, but with 10-12 carries tonight for $6,100 we have a high upside chance that he gets his way into the end zone and can continue to produce at over 5 yards per touch as he has in the past.
Isaiah Bowser – UCF – $5,500
Hey, remember this guy if you played CFB before?? Yep, the former Northwestern RB who transferred after a down 2020 season is going to get plenty of work for UCF due to a slew of injuries in their backfield and some opening spots due to graduating players. At just $5,500 he is likely to split carries in a thin backfield for UCF in a high paced game.
Khalil Shakir – Boise State – $6,900
Targets are king in football, especially on DraftKings with their full PPR scoring format and they are even more of a king in College Football given the number of plays run per game. Shakir out targets everyone and is the most consistent play on the board tonight. He returns with his 37% target share and him having a big game is the only way Bachmeier and Boise State will move the ball today. He’s a no brainer at $6900 on DK.
Chris Olave – The Ohio State – $6,700
Could full OSU stack with Garrett Wilson as well but Olave is the preferred big play weapon for me on Ohio State and will be all season.
Jaylon Robinson – UCF – $8,600
The alpha on this offense now and with Gabriel’s ability he should catch no fewer than 2 big pass plays in this game, but it’s his price that has me scared off. There are plenty of targets vacated in the UCF offense with Marlon Williams and Tre Nixon both graduated to the NFL. Marlon Williams hauled in 71 receptions a season ago and Robinson should eat into at least half of those. He should get over 6 catches for 100 yards today giving you a good 2x floor — the question is does he score multiple touchdowns to run away with things.
Other Receivers & Value Options
- Talolo Limu-Jones – Eastern Washington – $5,000 … My leverage against all the Barriere chalk? This would be one risky route that I can see paying off. He should play out of the slot and avoid the better corners on this UNLV defense tonight as he hauls in 7-9 catches for about 85 yards and maybe the one touchdown for Barriere who I am fading.
- Thomas Hennigan – App State – $5,300 … Ground game should do most of the work for App State, but ECU has not been good at defending passing games and I can see a path for him to pay off 3x game.
- Stefan Cobbs – Boise State – $4,100
OTHER INFORMATION
CORE PLAYS
Charles Williams, Khalil Shakir, Camrun Peoples
Potential Slate Breaker
Jaylon Robinson
BETS
- Boise State/UCF – 1st Half Under
- Boise State/UCF – In game OVER at Halftime
College Football DFS Reminders
- Remember the contest rule selection, find contests without comma’s in the number of users and include them as part of your DFS portfolio each week!
- Chalk is not horrible in College Football. There is usually a ton of volume that allows chalky players to reach value so long as they do not get injured or become a weird late scratch. Going with acomplete lineup full of 2% owned plays rarely works out in CFB DFS — this isn’t Baseball!
- Stacking a team outright will get you a good floor, but having more than 3 players from a team is usually asking for trouble. Having QB-RB-WR stack is more than fine.
- Game stacking wins in College Football. My favorite CORE build for a Game stack would be 2 QB (One in S-FLEX) and 2 WR, either from same team or alternating teams.
Good luck!